Prigozhin’s gambit: The future of Wagner in Belarus
Several options await Wagner in Belarus, but none is likely to change the status quo
Belarus
The Zelensky-Lukashenka-Tsikhanouskaya triangle: Understanding Ukraine’s relationship with the Belarusian opposition
Despite their common goals, the Ukrainian authorities have shown little interest in cooperating with the Belarusian opposition. As an ally to both, the EU can facilitate their understanding and engagement
The insignificance of Putin’s latest nuclear bluster
Putin’s attention-seeking plan to station nuclear weapons in Belarus underlines his commitment to nuclear risk manipulation – but his blackmail may be losing its potency
Escalating dependence: Russia’s nuclear plans for Belarus
Putin may be bluffing about the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. But if he follows through, the chance of a democratic transition for Belarus could all but vanish
A prison of the mind: Lukashenka’s pursuit of exiled Belarusians
The EU should invest more to support Belarus’s community of émigrés – through whom a different future for the country is possible
Death in Belarus: The meaning behind Lukashenka’s new foreign minister choices
As he appoints a new foreign minister after the death of Uladzimir Makei, Lukashenka has three potential options to choose from
Putin’s last ally: Why the Belarusian army cannot help Russia in Ukraine
Concerns are mounting that Belarusian troops could join Russia’s forces in Ukraine. But this course of action would be extremely risky – for both Putin and Lukashenka
Dual intentions: Why the Belarusian regime and its people are not one and the same
The Belarusian people are overwhelmingly against Russia’s war in Ukraine. European leaders should recall the 2020 uprisings in Belarus before conflating the country’s citizens with their illegitimate leader.
Deeds not words: Why the West should keep a close eye on Lukashenka
Recent military activity in Belarus, combined with Putin’s leverage over Lukashenka, suggests an ongoing threat of Belarusian troops joining hostilities in Ukraine
How to train your dictator: Putin’s control over Lukashenka
Lukashenka is complicit in Russia’s war on Ukraine. But this should not stigmatise members of the Belarusian democratic movement – who need more support than they are receiving.
Publications
The young and the restless: Europe, Russia, and the next generation of diplomats in the Eastern Partnership
Young diplomats in Eastern Partnership countries are optimistic and pro-European. Many of them want the EU to become a bolder geopolitical actor.
Lessons from Belarus: How the EU can support clean elections in Moldova and Georgia
The EU should make use of its significant leverage in Georgia and Moldova to counter their ruling parties’ extensive repertoire of electoral dirty tricks
Articles
Prigozhin’s gambit: The future of Wagner in Belarus
Several options await Wagner in Belarus, but none is likely to change the status quo
The Zelensky-Lukashenka-Tsikhanouskaya triangle: Understanding Ukraine’s relationship with the Belarusian opposition
Despite their common goals, the Ukrainian authorities have shown little interest in cooperating with the Belarusian opposition. As an ally to both, the EU can facilitate their understanding and engagement
The insignificance of Putin’s latest nuclear bluster
Putin’s attention-seeking plan to station nuclear weapons in Belarus underlines his commitment to nuclear risk manipulation – but his blackmail may be losing its potency
Escalating dependence: Russia’s nuclear plans for Belarus
Putin may be bluffing about the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. But if he follows through, the chance of a democratic transition for Belarus could all but vanish
A prison of the mind: Lukashenka’s pursuit of exiled Belarusians
The EU should invest more to support Belarus’s community of émigrés – through whom a different future for the country is possible
Death in Belarus: The meaning behind Lukashenka’s new foreign minister choices
As he appoints a new foreign minister after the death of Uladzimir Makei, Lukashenka has three potential options to choose from
Putin’s last ally: Why the Belarusian army cannot help Russia in Ukraine
Concerns are mounting that Belarusian troops could join Russia’s forces in Ukraine. But this course of action would be extremely risky – for both Putin and Lukashenka
Dual intentions: Why the Belarusian regime and its people are not one and the same
The Belarusian people are overwhelmingly against Russia’s war in Ukraine. European leaders should recall the 2020 uprisings in Belarus before conflating the country’s citizens with their illegitimate leader.
Deeds not words: Why the West should keep a close eye on Lukashenka
Recent military activity in Belarus, combined with Putin’s leverage over Lukashenka, suggests an ongoing threat of Belarusian troops joining hostilities in Ukraine
How to train your dictator: Putin’s control over Lukashenka
Lukashenka is complicit in Russia’s war on Ukraine. But this should not stigmatise members of the Belarusian democratic movement – who need more support than they are receiving.
Podcasts
How migration became a weapon: the Belarus-Polish border crisis
What is coercive engineered migration? And what would be the best way for the EU to respond to Minsk’s tactics?
How the EU should respond to Belarus
What will be the impact of the EU and US measures against Belarus? And what should be next steps also ahead of the EU-US summit on 15 June?
Belarus’s brutal politics
What kind of implications do the developments in Belarus have for the wider neighbourhood and Europe?
Protest movement in Belarus: Will Lukashenko survive the current state (of) crisis?
In this week’s episode, Jeremy Shapiro stepped in as host and welcomes senior policy fellows Kadri Liik and Andrew Wilson as well as political scientist…
ECFR’s World in 30 Minutes: Ukraine and Belarus
With an EU-Ukraine summit coming up this month, in this episode of World in 30 Minutes Mark Leonard, Director of ECFR, speaks to Kadri Liik…
Events
7 Jun
Belarus after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: The challenge of dual political identity
How to effectively separate the Belarusian society from the regime when taking sanctions measures? Will the independence of Belarus survive international isolation left alone with an expansionist Russia?
8 Nov
Migration crisis on the EU Eastern border: how the EU can protect borders and human rights
Since summer 2021, Poland and Lithuania have been confronted with an unprecedented action by the Lukashenko regime, which aims to exert political pressure on both…
27 Jan
The EU and Belarus in 2021
How is Europe planning to keep Belarus on the agenda and will it provide more political support for Belarusian civil society?
In the media
The interests of the Belarusian regime don’t have to coincide 100 percent with what Moscow wants, and sometimes one just wants to talk
The fact that Poland is currently strengthening its eastern borders, sending additional troops there, is the best answer that can be given to both Putin and Lukashenko
In this interview, Pavel Slunkin talks about his experience working with Qin Gang (ex-Foreign Minister of China) when he arrived in Minsk in 2015
He doesn’t have a position, yet he still works in Africa on behalf of Belarus and meets Lukashenko
On the day of the mutiny in Russia, he tried to help his senior partner, his boss, to pay him back and show his loyalty
Pavel Slunkin comments on Lukashenko´s opportunity to empower himself after the Wagner mutiny in Russia