Trump and Lukashenka’s new found dialogue leaves the EU in a bind. However, there is a middle ground to be found between passively waiting for regime change in Belarus and risking a fallout with Washington
Zapad 2025 is not only a show of force; it is Lukashenko’s bid to play a role in the emergent European security order as it bargains with Washington over sanctions and prisoners
Trump could grant Lukashenka sanctions relief without demanding any meaningful concessions in return. The EU must continue to maintain pressure
Belarusian leader, Aliaksandr Lukashenka, has created a new and constitutionally powerful assembly that could secure him a smooth transition of power to his loyalists after his rule. But for now, he will control it himself
The upcoming Belarusian parliamentary election on 25 February will be, as usual, a one-man show. The EU should not be deceived by the special effects, but instead take note of the stage directions
Just beyond the borders of the EU, the prisons of Belarus hold thousands of hostages of the Lukashenko regime. There is no magic formula for their release, but the EU can draw on international examples to save the lives of at least some of them
Three years after Belarus’s democratic uprising, Belarusians in Europe are met with increasing suspicion, but now more than ever, European leaders should guarantee enduring support to Belarusian exiles
Several options await Wagner in Belarus, but none is likely to change the status quo
Despite their common goals, the Ukrainian authorities have shown little interest in cooperating with the Belarusian opposition. As an ally to both, the EU can facilitate their understanding and engagement
Putin’s attention-seeking plan to station nuclear weapons in Belarus underlines his commitment to nuclear risk manipulation – but his blackmail may be losing its potency
Young diplomats in Eastern Partnership countries are optimistic and pro-European. Many of them want the EU to become a bolder geopolitical actor
The EU should make use of its significant leverage in Georgia and Moldova to counter their ruling parties’ extensive repertoire of electoral dirty tricks
Trump and Lukashenka’s new found dialogue leaves the EU in a bind. However, there is a middle ground to be found between passively waiting for regime change in Belarus and risking a fallout with Washington
Zapad 2025 is not only a show of force; it is Lukashenko’s bid to play a role in the emergent European security order as it bargains with Washington over sanctions and prisoners
Trump could grant Lukashenka sanctions relief without demanding any meaningful concessions in return. The EU must continue to maintain pressure
Belarusian leader, Aliaksandr Lukashenka, has created a new and constitutionally powerful assembly that could secure him a smooth transition of power to his loyalists after his rule. But for now, he will control it himself
The upcoming Belarusian parliamentary election on 25 February will be, as usual, a one-man show. The EU should not be deceived by the special effects, but instead take note of the stage directions
Just beyond the borders of the EU, the prisons of Belarus hold thousands of hostages of the Lukashenko regime. There is no magic formula for their release, but the EU can draw on international examples to save the lives of at least some of them
Three years after Belarus’s democratic uprising, Belarusians in Europe are met with increasing suspicion, but now more than ever, European leaders should guarantee enduring support to Belarusian exiles
Several options await Wagner in Belarus, but none is likely to change the status quo
Despite their common goals, the Ukrainian authorities have shown little interest in cooperating with the Belarusian opposition. As an ally to both, the EU can facilitate their understanding and engagement
Putin’s attention-seeking plan to station nuclear weapons in Belarus underlines his commitment to nuclear risk manipulation – but his blackmail may be losing its potency
What is coercive engineered migration? And what would be the best way for the EU to respond to Minsk’s tactics?
What will be the impact of the EU and US measures against Belarus? And what should be next steps also ahead of the EU-US summit on 15 June?
What kind of implications do the developments in Belarus have for the wider neighbourhood and Europe?
In this week’s episode, Jeremy Shapiro stepped in as host and welcomes senior policy fellows Kadri Liik and Andrew Wilson as well as political scientist…
With an EU-Ukraine summit coming up this month, in this episode of World in 30 Minutes Mark Leonard, Director of ECFR, speaks to Kadri Liik…
This event will discuss Belarus’ role in Russia’s war against Ukraine and the repressions and threats faced by the democratic opposition in Belarus and in exile. It will also explore possible actions by Western countries in this context
How to effectively separate the Belarusian society from the regime when taking sanctions measures? Will the independence of Belarus survive international isolation left alone with an expansionist Russia?
Since summer 2021, Poland and Lithuania have been confronted with an unprecedented action by the Lukashenko regime, which aims to exert political pressure on both countries and the European Union. Minsk is using migrants from third countries to create the impression of a refugee crisis, internal destabilisation and deepening divisions. Despite worsening weather conditions, the…
How is Europe planning to keep Belarus on the agenda and will it provide more political support for Belarusian civil society?
“Lukashenko undoubtedly has good relations with Haftar, and there are flights connecting Minsk with eastern Libya. Some say the Russians are helping to send migrants via Belarus.”
These elections, in the context of the war in Ukraine, are of major importance. Belarus will have the greatest relevance in terms of Polish security
Belarus is already in a state of half-war. It continues to increase the combat effectiveness of its army and has begun mobilisation procedures
Pavel Slunkin and Gabriele Valodskaitė argue why Europe should support emigrants from Belarus
