The geopolitical climate has become more conducive for Erdoğan to increase his demands. And outlining security concerns like this might result in concessions from the western counterparts,
Media mentions – Refugee crisis
I don’t think that Turkey has made a general change in its Syria policy, I think that these moves are seen as a necessity to respond to domestic pressure
I think the conflict will remain localized. However, its effects on energy, value chains and migration flows – inter alia – are global.
Since the Syria crisis erupted more than 10 years ago, we’ve seen that there was a high level of reluctancy from Europeans to share the burden amongst themselves
The situation is a huge risk for Turkey, there is no doubt. Iran will also stand to lose if the Taliban returns to its old ways and provides a safe haven for Islamist extremists.
Morocco is weaponizing migration
Morocco has seen the EU’s reaction, with which it had not counted on, and had to close the border to not risk worsening relations, not with Spain but, with Brussels
Morocco believes that they help Spain on issues that are existential for them and now that Morocco has an existential issue [Western Sahara], Spain is not helping at all
Deepening state failure in Syria is likely only to lead to further instability and entrench Assad’s warlord-like hold on the country as he defends the organs of state needed to maintain power
If the public debate plays up the perceived link between the virus, borders, and migrants, this will come dangerously close to arguments about national purity and racial superiority