Sanctions are the EU's sole coercive instrument of power short of military action (Brussels, mercifully, does not engage in warfare). The EU needs to understand their impact so that it can use them more effectively.
2012 saw continuing crisis in the eurozone, growing Euroscepticism and populism in some corners of Europe, faltering transitions in Egypt and elsewhere, more violence in Syria, a new leadership in China, and both Putin II and Obama II. So what will 2013 hold?
Shunned by the EU with membership talks effectively blocked, Turkey feels empowered. It is no longer on the European periphery, but at the centre of its own world.
Are Turkey and Russia still friends? Critics of Prime Minister Tayyip Erdoğan are often heard fretting about “Putinization” in Turkey, but is the Russian leader a welcome guest in a country that is now the principal supporter of the Syrian opposition?
Germany and Poland have become close political allies. The future of the European Union may be decided in Berlin and Warsaw. But has Poland replaced France as Germany's most trusted European partner?
Azerbaijan has hydrocarbon riches and a strategic position, which means that all the great powers have an interest in good relations. But one family has dominated the political scene for many years, corruption is rampant and the economy needs diversifying. It’s time to open up.
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