Obama’s First Year
When it comes to Russia, central Europeans are rightly concerned about Obama’s ‘reset’ policy, but for the wrong reasons
Experts & Staff
Ivan Krastev
Chairman, Centre for Liberal Strategies
Biography
Ivan Krastev chairs the Centre for Liberal Strategies in Sofia and is a permanent fellow at the Institute for Human Sciences, IWM Vienna. He is a founding board member of ECFR, a member of Open Society Foundations’ global advisory board, a contributing opinion writer for the New York Times, and the author of the widely acclaimed book “After Europe”. In 2020, he was awarded the Jean Améry Prize for European essay writing. Previously, he served as executive director of the International Commission on the Balkans and as editor-in-chief of the Bulgarian edition of Foreign Policy.
Strong enough for a ‘reset’ with Russia? Obama and Moscow
The success of President Obama's “reset” policy with Russia will depend not only on getting U.S. actions toward Moscow right but also on getting insight into the way the Kremlin views the United States and its new president.
Strong enough for a ‘reset’ with Russia?
To persuade Russians to join him, Obama must first demonstrate that he does not need them
What does Russia think?
ECFR publishes a collection of views from key Russian intellectuals
The guns of August: non-event with consequences
The political fallout of the Russia-Georgia war of August 2008 affects far more than the main combatants
Why the Obama Administration should not take central and Eastern Europe for granted
Twenty years after the end of the Cold War, Central and Eastern Europe is no longer at the heart of American foreign policy. A GMF policy brief.
Russia and the Georgia war: the great-power trap
Russia’s flawed understanding of 21st-century international politics means that its military success in the war with Georgia could be followed by its strategic defeat
New World Order: The balance of soft power and the rise of herbivorous powers
A global public opinion survey shows that there is growing public support for a more multi-polar world
The rise of ?herbivorous powers??
A global public opinion survey shows that there is growing public support for a more multi-polar world, and 35% of world citizens would like to see the EU’s influence to grow
Publications
Peace versus Justice: The coming European split over the war in Ukraine
New ECFR research reveals that Europeans are split about the long-term goals of the war in Ukraine. Unless political leaders find a new language to bridge the gap between emerging “Peace” and “Justice” camps, Europe could become polarised between – and within – countries.
The crisis of European security: What Europeans think about the war in Ukraine
Europeans are united around three key ideas about the war in Ukraine. The crisis will likely test their readiness to defend the European security order.
What Europeans think about the US-China Cold War
A majority of European citizens believe a new cold war with both China and Russia is under way – but they mostly do not think that their own country is involved
Europe’s invisible divides: How covid-19 is polarising European politics
Europe’s covid-19 experience has been a tale of two pandemics – and the differences in each story could haunt the continent for many years to come
The crisis of American power: How Europeans see Biden’s America
Most Europeans rejoiced at Joe Biden’s victory in the US presidential election, but they do not think he can help America make a comeback as the pre-eminent global leader
Europe’s pandemic politics: How the virus has changed the public’s worldview
New research reveals that the crisis has revolutionised citizens’ perceptions of global order – scrambling the distinctions between nationalism and globalism
The arrival of post-Putin Russia
Following Russia’s March 2018 election, the behaviour of the country’s elites will be defined by the expectation of the president’s departure
The New European Disorder
The EU cannot hope to transform Russia, but it should be aware of the price of secluding it
What does Turkey think?
Understanding how the new Turkey views the world, from inside
European security: The spectre of a multipolar Europe
The EU needs to build a trialogue on security with Russia and Turkey
Articles
The pandemic was supposed to be great for strongmen. What happened?
From Trump to Lukashenka, authoritarians are discovering that this isn’t their kind of crisis
Donald Trump’s defeat would deal a blow to European populism
Victory for Joe Biden in November would empower liberals in former Habsburg lands
Seven early lessons from the coronavirus
The Covid-19 crisis will dramatically reshape the EU’s response to all other crises it has faced in the last decade
Will Europe Ever Trust America Again?
As Western leaders gather in London this week, you might be able to detect a huge rupture beneath the surface
What do Europeans really want?
This month’s EU elections aren’t a fight between nationalists and progressives. They are total chaos.
Why Viktor Orbán and his allies won’t win the EU elections
Right-wing populists think voters obsess about immigration. But that’s not the case.
Central Europe’s Tough Choice: Macron or Orban?
Fears about political and economic marginalisation have damped the spread of new EU-optimism to Central Europe
Donald Trump and the Bieber Doctrine
“Go and love yourself” is essentially Mr. Trump’s message to his European allies.
Transforming the global system
In the new polycentric world, global institutions must be reformed so that regional powers have a say in the system
We need new rules for a multipolar Europe
The Deauville summit involving Sarkozy, Merkel and Medvedev was always likely to be a non-event, beyond the recognition that Europe is now a multipolar continent. Instead we need a new system – an informal trialogue on European security that would keep the EU united, Russia post-imperial and Turkey European.
Specials
What Europeans really want: Five myths debunked
New ECFR/YouGov research reveals huge fluidity in current voting intentions: 70 percent of Europeans certain to vote are yet to make their choice. Nearly 100m swing voters are up for grabs.
Podcasts
15 years of ECFR: Reflections on Europe in a tumultuous world
We turned 15! Time to reflect on the past years and ECFR’s role in helping Europe find a strong, united voice
Peace versus Justice: The coming European split over the war in Ukraine
New ECFR research reveals that Europe’s remarkable unity in the early days of the war is under threat from an emerging split – between those who want peace as soon as possible and those who favour justice for Ukraine
Europe’s pandemic politics: How the virus has changed the public’s worldview
As covid-19 raged, speculation grew that the crisis would re– strengthen public support for the state; faith in…
L’avenir de la démocratie en Europe
Podcast de notre conférence du 24 avril « L'avenir de la démocratie en Europe » en partenariat avec la Revue Esprit, en présence…
Voices on Ukraine, voices of Ukraine part 1 – Ivan Krastev
ECFR's Policy Fellow and Associate Director of the Madrid Office, Francisco de Borja Lasheras, and ECFR Board Member and chairman of the Centre of…
Events
31 Jan
Power audit of EU-Russia relations: How Europeans are learning to handle a new reality
Concluding that Russia poses a threat and that the EU let its dependencies grow too deep, the bloc so far attempted to decouple from Moscow. How should Europeans navigate the adversarial relationship in the future?
19 Jan
The crisis of American power: How Europeans see Biden’s America
The event will launch an exciting new report by Ivan Krastev and Mark Leonard, based on public opinion polling in 11 countries
In the media
The German newspaper refers to the policy brief ‘Peace versus Justice’ by Mark Leonard and Ivan Krastev
The Irish Times quotes from ECFR’s publication “Peace versus Justice: The coming European split over the war in Ukraine”
It is the diverging views of how the war should end rather than Mr. Putin’s threats that is the real risk for European unity.
Ivan Krastev comments on realist, optimist and revisionist views on the war in Ukraine
By attacking Kiev, Putin cut ties with Brussels, causing Europeans’ disgust towards his country
Ivan Krastev comments on Russia’s loss of soft power due to the invasion of Ukraine
The resilience of European democracies will mostly depend on the capacity of governments to sustain public support for policies that will ultimately bring pain to different social groups
Mark Leonard and Ivan Krastev assess European resilience given the divisions that are emerging on the war in Ukraine, as per ECFR survey conducted in nine EU countries and the UK