Europe’s Russian energy dilemma
The EU should adopt a phased approach to energy sanctions on Russia. This would be more effective than a rushed embargo and would help preserve European unity.
Experts & Staff
Cinzia Bianco
Visiting Fellow
Areas of expertise
The Arabian Peninsula and the Gulf region, European relations with the Gulf countries
Languages
Italian and English (fluent), French, Spanish and Arabic (conversational)
Biography
Cinzia Bianco is a visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, where she is working on political, security and economic developments in the Arabian Peninsula and Gulf region and relations with Europe. Additionally, she is a senior analyst at Gulf State Analytics. Previously, Bianco was a research fellow for the European Commission’s project on EU-GCC relations ‘Sharaka’ between 2013 and 2014.
She holds an MA degree in Middle East and Mediterranean Studies from King’s College London and a PhD in Middle East Politics from the University of Exeter in the United Kingdom, where she worked on threat perceptions in the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) after the 2011 Arab uprisings.
Order of engagement: Assad’s visit to Abu Dhabi
The UAE’s embrace of Assad is central to the construction of a new regional order that preserves Emirati influence
Balance of power: Gulf states, Russia, and European energy security
Gulf monarchies’ refusal to side with the US and Europe against Russia is not about Russia. It is about a transactional approach to protecting national interests and avoiding the costs of strategic alignment.
Unsettled: The impact of the Russia-Ukraine crisis on the Middle East and North Africa
Heightened conflict in Ukraine could have serious consequences for European interests in the Middle East and North Africa. It could further disrupt energy supplies, exacerbate food insecurity, and help states in the region gain leverage over the US and Europe.
Power play: Europe’s climate diplomacy in the Gulf
If the EU is to achieve its climate and geopolitical goals, it will need to substantially increase its engagement with Gulf states on the European Green Deal
Cooling-off: How Europe can help stabilise the Middle East
As countries across the Middle East pause to take stock of recent conflicts, Europeans need to do more to support dialogue
How the Turkey-UAE Rivalry is remaking the Middle East
How can the EU prevent the Turkey-UAE rivalry from destabilising European security and foreign policy?
Useful enemies: How the Turkey-UAE rivalry is remaking the Middle East
Instead of using the UAE to push back against Turkey or vice versa, Europe should develop its own strategy on their rivalry
Not getting away with murder: How Europeans can shape US-Saudi diplomacy
Europeans should resist the temptation to exploit the strain in the US-Saudi relationship for short-term, narrow, and self-interested gains
Gulf of difference: How Europe can get the Gulf monarchies to pursue peace with Iran
The arrival of the Biden administration in Washington, and the perception of US disengagement from the region, offers an opportunity for Europeans to help de-escalate tensions between GCC states and Iran
Publications
A new climate for peace: How Europe can promote environmental cooperation between the Gulf Arab states and Iran
European policymakers should back climate diplomacy to help improve relations between Iran and Gulf monarchies
Power play: Europe’s climate diplomacy in the Gulf
If the EU is to achieve its climate and geopolitical goals, it will need to substantially increase its engagement with Gulf states on the European Green Deal
Useful enemies: How the Turkey-UAE rivalry is remaking the Middle East
Instead of using the UAE to push back against Turkey or vice versa, Europe should develop its own strategy on their rivalry
Gulf of difference: How Europe can get the Gulf monarchies to pursue peace with Iran
The arrival of the Biden administration in Washington, and the perception of US disengagement from the region, offers an opportunity for Europeans to help de-escalate tensions between GCC states and Iran
A Gulf apart: How Europe can gain influence with the Gulf Cooperation Council
Europeans can shift the balance of power in the Gulf in their favour by approaching the Gulf through flexible new frameworks
Articles
Internalising peace: How to build on Saudi-Iranian de-escalation for a settlement in Yemen
The normalisation of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran has provided welcome impetus towards peace in Yemen. But resolving the regional dimension of the conflict should not come at the expense of inclusive, intra-Yemeni negotiations under UN auspices
The shoots of stability: What the Saudi-Iran deal means for the Middle East and Europe
Saudi Arabia and Iran have agreed to begin the process of normalising their relations. Europeans should consider how to help entrench the stabilising gains of the agreement – even as they navigate difficulties with Iran
An open relationship: What European governments can learn from China-Gulf cooperation
To compete with China’s influence in the Gulf, European governments should embrace multipolarity and offer concrete alternatives to Gulf monarchies
The comeback kingdom: What a resurgent Saudi Arabia means for Europe
Saudi Arabia is resurgent as a leader in the Middle East and North Africa. The Saudi foreign minister’s visit to Brussels represents an opportunity for the EU to explore more active cooperation on projects in the region
From maverick player to crisis manager: What Qatar wants from its World Cup
Hosting the World Cup is the ultimate ‘soft power coup’. But Qatar could find the investment may not be worth the return
Bide and seek: The dangers of US support for a Gulf-Israeli defence pact
Military alignment between Israel and Gulf Arab states risks heightened conflict in the Middle East – without weakening Iran’s geopolitical position or nuclear programme
Europe’s Russian energy dilemma
The EU should adopt a phased approach to energy sanctions on Russia. This would be more effective than a rushed embargo and would help preserve European unity.
Order of engagement: Assad’s visit to Abu Dhabi
The UAE’s embrace of Assad is central to the construction of a new regional order that preserves Emirati influence
Balance of power: Gulf states, Russia, and European energy security
Gulf monarchies’ refusal to side with the US and Europe against Russia is not about Russia. It is about a transactional approach to protecting national interests and avoiding the costs of strategic alignment.
Unsettled: The impact of the Russia-Ukraine crisis on the Middle East and North Africa
Heightened conflict in Ukraine could have serious consequences for European interests in the Middle East and North Africa. It could further disrupt energy supplies, exacerbate food insecurity, and help states in the region gain leverage over the US and Europe.
Specials
Deep sea rivals: Europe, Turkey, and new eastern Mediterranean conflict lines
The eastern Mediterranean is becoming ever more perilous as geopolitical fault lines steadily enmesh the region. These rifts emerge from the Cyprus ‘frozen conflict’, competition for valuable gas fields, and the increasingly entangled wars in Libya and Syria.
Podcasts
The Iran-Saudi deal and its impact
Mark Leonard welcomes Julien Barnes-Dacey, Cinzia Bianco and Andrew Small, to talk about the new Saudi – Iran deal
The Middle East and the Ukraine war: energy supplies, nuclear deals and regional tensions
On location at the Doha Forum 2022, Mark Leonard and his guests discuss Western energy sanctions on Russia and why is there a reluctance in the Gulf states and the West to cooperate on energy supplies
How the Turkey-UAE Rivalry is remaking the Middle East
How can the EU prevent the Turkey-UAE rivalry from destabilising European security and foreign policy?
A Gulf apart: How Europe can gain influence with the Gulf Cooperation Council
The ECFR Rome office organized a virtual gathering, moderated by the Head of ECFR Rome Arturo Varvelli, to present the ECFR publication “A Gulf…
Events
31 Oct
A new climate for peace? How Europe can reconcile energy and climate security
Cinzia Bianco, Mats Engström and Anthony Dworkin were in conversation with Susi Dennison to hear how Europe can best meet its energy security interests all the while preserving its credibility as a climate superpower
In the media
I tend to disagree with the prevailing opinion suggesting that a multipolar Middle East could be positive, and that peaceful coexistence with Russia and China in the region is feasible
Cinzia Bianco discusses China and Russia’s penetration into the voids left by the US in the Middle East.
Decisions on the […] Mediterranean are made in the Gulf and no longer in the Arab capitals of the Mediterranean. The fate of Cairo is decided in Riyadh, the fate of Tunis is decided in the Emirates.
Cinzia Bianco describes the dynamics that make the Gulf the new centre of gravity in the Enlarged Mediterranean
There is a clear decline in interest among GCC countries for Russian military gear. They are doubling down on Nato weaponry
Cinzia Bianco argues that Moscow’s poor military performance in Ukraine has been particularly devastating for Russia in the rich Gulf market
Having a leading position in Abu Dhabi is having a leading position over the entire country
Cinzia Bianco argues that the naming of a second vice president indicates an attempt by Abu Dhabi to centralize power “in an inclusive way”
Starting from having a very close economic relationship with China, Saudi Arabia has now moved on to say: “I am an effective part of the Chinese-led world.”.
Cinzia Bianco comments on the relations between China and Saudia Arabia, in light of the latter’s decision to join the SCO as a dialogue partner