The second year of Russia’s war: Scenarios for the Ukraine conflict in 2023
Russia is likely to make some progress in the first half of 2023, but it may lack the capability to hold on to its gains
Russia is likely to make some progress in the first half of 2023, but it may lack the capability to hold on to its gains
After several countries committed to delivering heavy weapons to Ukraine, all eyes are on Germany and the US, and whether they will agree to send Leopard 2 and M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine
Although Ukrainians are heading into a hard winter sustained by a sense of optimism and hope for peace in the near future, this is no time for complacency. The West, and especially the European Union, must get serious about positioning itself for a protracted, multi-pronged conflict.
A UN-backed court could reinforce condemnation of Russia’s aggressive war and reduce Putin’s legitimacy on the international stage. But its establishment and success will depend on the commitment it receives
We are not on a path to nuclear war – but strong deterrence measures from the West can help ensure that scenario remains unlikely
European leaders must shift from supplying only short-term military support for Ukraine to providing long-term strategic assistance
Concerns are mounting that Belarusian troops could join Russia’s forces in Ukraine. But this course of action would be extremely risky – for both Putin and Lukashenka
Russia is using Iranian-made drones to make up for its other shortcomings. Their use is unlikely to prove a game-changer – but Europeans should still assist Ukraine to defend against them
Putin’s mobilisation is unlikely to change the direction of the war – if Ukraine’s Western allies remain steadfast in their support
Vladimir Putin may find his war on Ukraine toughens up the West rather than hastens its demise