Turkey would attempt to sit on the fence if conflict breaks out in Ukraine. But with domestic challenges rising at home, Recep Tayyip Erdogan may not be able to withstand the pressure from either Russia or NATO allies.
Europeans too often see strategy in Russia’s tactical use of regional crises. The EU and member states should help eastern partners become more resilient in the face of such opportunism.
Moscow’s armed presence on Ukraine’s border may be connected to Vladimir Putin’s long-standing desire to discuss and change Europe’s geopolitical order
Many European leaders do not seem to grasp the seriousness of this moment in the Ukrainian conflict. Unless the West makes a greater effort to counter Russian military coercion, there is no guarantee that Russia will stop with Ukraine.
How serious is the Russian troop build-up near the Ukraine border? And what should NATO do about it?
Russia is mobilising its forces, but much more covertly than in the past. Moscow’s belief that the EU and US will not step in to protect Ukraine could lead it to take direct military action.
Russia’s capacity to carry out large-scale military operations against Black Sea states allows it to coerce and extort them
Faced with a Russia that is still conducting a war in Ukraine and weaponising gas, Washington’s new deal with Kyiv could provide a real boost to Ukrainian defence and intelligence
European governments have yet to learn a key lesson from the war in Ukraine. The alternative reality the Kremlin lives in is becoming increasingly dangerous.
By appointing a special representative for Crimea, the EU would show its commitment to standing by its partners and rejecting Russia’s violations of international law