The attempted killing of the Iraqi prime minister looks set to transform the post-election landscape. European engagement could prove valuable, but it will need to strike the right balance between urgency and caution.
In the wake of Iraq’s parliamentary election, European states should be highly cautious about publicly engaging with Iraqi policy on armed groups. They should only help Baghdad deal with this issue following a direct request.
It is important for Europeans to be realistic about the Iraqi government’s ability to enact reforms. As Iraq’s next governing coalition will include many deeply reactionary groups, the country will continue to struggle to address the long-standing challenges that create domestic instability.
Europe should support the recent Iranian-Saudi talks in Baghdad as an opportunity to help stabilise the Middle East, despite risk of that engagement being derailed
European governments should clearly communicate their opposition to a potential Turkish military incursion into Sinjar, which would undermine the government in Baghdad while failing to remove the PKK from the area