ECFR Alumni · Visiting Fellow
Belarus domestic and foreign policy issues, relations with Russia and the European Union
Belarusian, Russian, English, Spanish. Swedish and Polish (both basic level)
Pavel Slunkin is a visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, based in ECFR’s Warsaw office. He works on Belarus-related issues: its domestic and foreign policy, relations with Russia, the European Union, and the United States.
Prior to joining ECFR he worked for the foreign ministry of Belarus. Slunkin participated in Minsk talks on Ukraine preparation and worked as political analyst at the embassy of Belarus in Lithuania.
Slunkin holds a BA (Hons) in International Relations from the Belarusian State University and is an alumnus of several programmes by Clingendael Institute of International Relations (the Netherlands), Wake Forest University (US), Friedrich Ebert Stiftung (Germany).
Join the discussion on Georgia’s future in light of the recent protests, EU accession process and Russia’s influence in Tbilisi
The EU should invest more to support Belarus’s community of émigrés – through whom a different future for the country is possible
The EU should reform its Eastern Partnership initiative to better address the different needs and priorities of the partner countries
As he appoints a new foreign minister after the death of Uladzimir Makei, Lukashenka has three potential options to choose from
Concerns are mounting that Belarusian troops could join Russia’s forces in Ukraine. But this course of action would be extremely risky – for both Putin and Lukashenka
The Belarusian people are overwhelmingly against Russia’s war in Ukraine. European leaders should recall the 2020 uprisings in Belarus before conflating the country’s citizens with their illegitimate leader
Recent military activity in Belarus, combined with Putin’s leverage over Lukashenka, suggests an ongoing threat of Belarusian troops joining hostilities in Ukraine
How to effectively separate the Belarusian society from the regime when taking sanctions measures? Will the independence of Belarus survive international isolation left alone with an expansionist Russia?
Lukashenka is complicit in Russia’s war on Ukraine. But this should not stigmatise members of the Belarusian democratic movement – who need more support than they are receiving
Regardless of whether Russia launches another major offensive against Ukraine, Belarus’s territory will increasingly become a source of military threats to all its western neighbours – not just Ukraine
Young diplomats in Eastern Partnership countries are optimistic and pro-European. Many of them want the EU to become a bolder geopolitical actor
Belarusian leader, Aliaksandr Lukashenka, has created a new and constitutionally powerful assembly that could secure him a smooth transition of power to his loyalists after his rule. But for now, he will control it himself
The upcoming Belarusian parliamentary election on 25 February will be, as usual, a one-man show. The EU should not be deceived by the special effects, but instead take note of the stage directions
Just beyond the borders of the EU, the prisons of Belarus hold thousands of hostages of the Lukashenko regime. There is no magic formula for their release, but the EU can draw on international examples to save the lives of at least some of them
Three years after Belarus’s democratic uprising, Belarusians in Europe are met with increasing suspicion, but now more than ever, European leaders should guarantee enduring support to Belarusian exiles
Several options await Wagner in Belarus, but none is likely to change the status quo
Despite their common goals, the Ukrainian authorities have shown little interest in cooperating with the Belarusian opposition. As an ally to both, the EU can facilitate their understanding and engagement
Putin may be bluffing about the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. But if he follows through, the chance of a democratic transition for Belarus could all but vanish
The EU should invest more to support Belarus’s community of émigrés – through whom a different future for the country is possible
The EU should reform its Eastern Partnership initiative to better address the different needs and priorities of the partner countries
As he appoints a new foreign minister after the death of Uladzimir Makei, Lukashenka has three potential options to choose from
Mark Leonard welcomes Theo Murphy, Pavel Slunkin, Kadri Liik, and Kirill Shamiev to shed light on the possible consequences of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s death
Mark Leonard welcomes Marie Dumoulin, Kadri Liik, Pavel Slunkin and Kiril Shamiev to shed light on the weekend’s events and discuss the new reality that has opened up in Russia
What is coercive engineered migration? And what would be the best way for the EU to respond to Minsk’s tactics?
What will be the impact of the EU and US measures against Belarus? And what should be next steps also ahead of the EU-US summit on 15 June?
What kind of implications do the developments in Belarus have for the wider neighbourhood and Europe?
This event will discuss Belarus’ role in Russia’s war against Ukraine and the repressions and threats faced by the democratic opposition in Belarus and in exile. It will also explore possible actions by Western countries in this context
Join the discussion on Georgia’s future in light of the recent protests, EU accession process and Russia’s influence in Tbilisi
How to effectively separate the Belarusian society from the regime when taking sanctions measures? Will the independence of Belarus survive international isolation left alone with an expansionist Russia?
Pavel Slunkin on Russia’s evolving strategy vis-a-vis Ukraine
Pavel Slunkin on how Putin uses Belarus as a vassal state
Pavel Slunkin argued that seeing the Minsk agreements as either another Munich or failed opportunity is not mutually exclusive
Pavel Slunkin on how Europe can support pro-democracy Belarusians
Pavel Slunkin and Gabriele Valodskaitė argue why Europe should support emigrants from Belarus
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