Decoding the call: What the Trump-Putin exchange means for global politics
Mark Leonard welcomes Kirill Shamiev to unpack the recent phone call between US president Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin
Experts & Staff
Kirill Shamiev
Policy Fellow
Areas of expertise
Civil-military relations; Russian domestic politics; Policymaking
Biography
Kirill Shamiev is a policy fellow with the Wider Europe programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations. He focuses on Russia’s civil-military relations and domestic politics and policymaking.
Prior to joining ECFR, Shamiev worked as a senior researcher at PPMI, a European consultancy company. He has extensive experience in designing, coordinating, and conducting studies and evaluations for the European Commission, including most recently a study to support the evaluation of the European Union Agency for Cybersecurity and the European cybersecurity certification framework, interim evaluation for the European Solidarity Corps, and analysis of organisational models in EU cohesion policy programme authorities (2000-2020) for DG CNECT, DG EAC and DG REGIO.
Shamiev holds a PhD in political science from Central European University. He is a founding member of the MethodsNET global network of methods experts in the social sciences and a member of the Inter-University Seminar on Armed Forces and Society. His work has been published in the Armed Forces and Society journal, Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy and the Routledge Handbook of Russian Politics and Society. He is an author of Imperfect Equilibrium: Civil–Military Relations in Russian Defense Policymaking (forthcoming in Hurst Publishers).
His personal website is https://shamiev.org/
Freeze and thaw: USAID withdrawal and the future of Russia’s pro-European civil society
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The consequences of the war in Gaza for Ukraine
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Publications
Brass tacks: Why Russia’s military fails to reform
The Kremlin has long attempted to reform Russia’s military, but a dysfunctional system of civilian control has led to repeated failures, including in its 2022 invasion of Ukraine. These problems will likely continue after the war unless a new Russian leadership emerges to address these persistent systemic problems
Life in exile: A new approach to Russian democrats in Europe
European governments need a more coordinated response to Russian democrats in exile – to give them certainty for the future and help guard against Kremlin subversion
Articles
Freeze and thaw: USAID withdrawal and the future of Russia’s pro-European civil society
Donald Trump has frozen USAID. This is bad news for civil society organisations in the Russian democratic community, but Europe has the chance to step up its soft power influence in the eastern neighbourhood
Putin’s military makeover: What to expect from Russia’s new defence minister
Putin’s appointment of Andrei Belousov as defence minister signals the Kremlin’s push to rapidly modernise the Russian military – and further reshuffles may be on the horizon
Be prepared: Lessons for the West from the Wagner mutiny
Western states should take steps now to map out the future scenarios that could unfold – and engage with Russian civil society to understand what may happen
Podcasts
Decoding the call: What the Trump-Putin exchange means for global politics
Mark Leonard welcomes Kirill Shamiev to unpack the recent phone call between US president Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin
Speeding like a troika: Russia’s uncertain futures
In this final episode, we discuss how the war has transformed Russian society and political culture, and outline possible scenarios for its medium to long term political trajectory
Under the Overcoat: Russian foreign policy: from a U-Turn over the Atlantic to the zigzags of history
This podcast explores deeper trends beneath the surface of Russia’s daily politics. In this episode, we delve deeper into Russia’s foreign policy, taking a long-term perspective.
Under the Overcoat: Are we the baddies? Russian civil-military relations and the bomb
This podcast explores deeper trends beneath the surface of Russia’s daily politics. In this episode, we analyse who is really in charge of the Russian military and its nuclear weapons.
Under the Overcoat: the past is unpredictable
On 1 September, Russian high schools transitioned to new “patriotic” history textbooks authored by one of Russia’s staunchest conservatives, former culture minister Vladimir Medinsky. How…
The consequences of the war in Gaza for Ukraine
Jeremy Shapiro welcomes Gustav Gressel and Kirill Shamiev to talk about the consequences of the war in Gaza for Ukraine
Podcast special: Yevgeny Prigozhin’s death
Mark Leonard welcomes Theo Murphy, Pavel Slunkin, Kadri Liik, and Kirill Shamiev to shed light on the possible consequences of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s death
Podcast special: Wagner v Putin
Mark Leonard welcomes Marie Dumoulin, Kadri Liik, Pavel Slunkin and Kiril Shamiev to shed light on the weekend’s events and discuss the new reality that has opened up in Russia
Events
14 Jun
Who controls the Russian military?
What are the political dynamics surrounding the Russian military? Exploring potential scenarios for Russia’s civil-military development and implications for NATO and Europe
In the media
Trump is attempting to impose a peace agreement without Ukraine’s participation, which is not reasonable
Kirill Shamiev analyzes Russia’s potential discursive victory following the talks between Trump and Putin
Kirill Shamiev on Russia’s command following the Kursk offensive
Kirill Shamiev’s policy brief quoted in the Washington Post
We can expect there might be something boiling inside the system but obviously, smart people will try to hide it as much as possible before beginning to collect allies and resources to act
Kirill Shamiev expects the Russian political opposition to take more time before becoming a potential threat to Putin’s next presidency
In this interview, Kirill Shamiev explains the possible implications of Ukraine’s strikes on Russia’s Black Sea navy in Crimea