The PM is dead, long live the PM! Why France will remain internationally bullish

Problem

In this moment of international turbulence, a France riven with domestic political strife may struggle to help address the many challenges assailing Europe—from an aggressive American administration to supporting Ukraine against Russia.

Europe has a lot riding on being able to deliver. Its leaders are expected to ramp up defence spending, commit resources to a post-ceasefire peace in Ukraine and finance a €400bn European Competitiveness Fund as well as other priorities in the EU’s major financial settlement. An embattled French president drawn inward, or even persuaded to cede power to the far-right National Rally party, could slow progress on all these fronts. 

Solution

For all the turmoil, French foreign and defence policy may remain steadier than first appears—provided that President Emmanuel Macron manages to nominate a prime minister who stays the course. With François Bayrou gone, Macron intends to replace him quickly. The most constructive suggestions point to a skilful negotiator or a left-leaning figure able to reach an acceptable compromise with France’s mainstream parties.

Sitting atop a shrinking political base does not seem to worry Macron: he blames the political impasse on the failure of the parties to negotiate rather than any fault of his own. But to ensure he can continue his foreign policy initiatives, President Macron must urgently stabilise the government.

The Fifth Republic empowers the president on matters of foreign and defence policy, and the incumbent has a particular penchant for activity on the world stage. Despite his party badly losing the 2024 snap parliamentary election, the past year has been packed with French leadership and initiatives. From the coalition of the willing for Ukraine, to backing Denmark up over US threats to Greenland, to pushing for the recognition of Palestine, one would never know the French president was facing troubles at home.

In contrast to other European countries, public and president are fairly well aligned on today’s foreign policy challenges. Trump is unpopular in France, and efforts to develop European strategic autonomy are a shared goal among French politicians. The coalition of the willing has encountered relatively light political criticism. The French are also largely united against the war in Gaza. With a more stable government, however fragmented, Macron would continue to be able to use the powers of the Fifth Republic to lead France internationally.

Context

For its European neighbours, France’s political instability may appear a source of concern. Strikes and street protests are expected to multiply in the coming weeks. Many may see this latest episode as proof of Macron’s precarious political situation which, they fear, could result in another parliamentary election or even his resignation.

A deteriorating national situation could lead the president to take more drastic action. He could call an election, as desired by the National Rally party of Marine Le Pen, who knows her party is likely to win big. But Macron will hold off as long as he can. He could also resign, as the far-left La France Insoumise demands. But for the moment the president and his camp completely reject this option too.