This piece first appeared in The Financial Times on 16 April 2009.
Just before Easter, as European diplomats were packing for the holidays, a
crisis erupted in the forgotten and usually quiet Moldova that will require their
intervention to sort out. Without a quick political solution, the European
Union could face a new consolidated autocracy like Belarus on its border. Relations
would deteriorate further and the launch of the eastern partnership initiative,
under which the bloc aims to strengthen ties with six ex-Soviet states, would
The trouble started two days after elections on April 5, which delivered a
third straight victory to the Communist party.
A minority of violent protesters broke into the parliament and the presidential
palace, prompting the government to accuse Romania,
an EU member state, of plotting a coup d’état in Moldova.
More importantly, it also launched an indiscriminate crackdown on opposition
parties, peaceful protesters and independent journalists.
The Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe
gave the elections a largely clean bill of health. Yet while the counting of
votes was probably fair, the results were distorted before polling day. During
the campaign there was extensive police harassment of the opposition and huge
media bias. Opposition parties also point to potential fraud in the electoral
lists, which included over 300,000 more people than in 2005 even though Moldova’s
population is shrinking. They also claim that some Communist party supporters
voted more than once. The way to check these allegations is not to recount the
ballots mechanically, as the government suggests, but to check the electoral
lists. This is possible but takes more time.
quickly reacted to the crisis with political and practical support for the
government’s crackdown. President Dmitry Medvedev and the Russian foreign
ministry have made numerous statements offering their backing to Vladimir
president. For Russia, a
more isolated Moldova
is a more likely political ally.
The consequences of the crisis for the eastern partnership could be dire. Moldova is more
dependent on the EU than any other eastern neighbour. More than 50 per cent of
its trade is with the EU, the country receives significant EU assistance, most
Moldovan emigrants work in the EU and almost three-quarters of Moldova’s
population support EU integration.
If the EU cannot influence Moldova,
broader questions about its relevance in the eastern neighbourhood will emerge.
The eastern partnership summit planned for early May could be a public
relations disaster if it looks like the 27 EU heads of state are conferring
legitimacy to a bunch of autocrats, killing the policy politically before it
has been properly launched.
The long-term consequences of the crisis could be even more far-reaching. Moldova already has more than 100,000 Romanian
citizens and Traian Basescu, Romania’s
president, has pledged to facilitate issuing passports. The EU faces the
prospect of Moldova
becoming a Russian political satellite with hundreds of thousands of EU
citizens subject to a repressive regime. The EU has never faced such a dilemma.
Such developments are far from inevitable. But the EU is the only actor that
has the credibility to help Moldova
emerge from the crisis. It needs to apply high-level pressure, though not
necessarily publicly, on both the Moldovan government and the opposition to sit
down and negotiate a political solution. This should include the verification
of electoral lists, a recount
of votes, media access for the opposition and the recognition of the
elections by the opposition.
The EU special representative for Moldova has been trying to reach a
mediated solution working behind the scenes. But more heavy-handed EU pressure
and incentives might be necessary. Romania
should play its part and offer to sign a basic treaty and a border agreement
In the following months, the EU should also send a mission to Moldova to deal
with police reform. The crisis partly emerged because of a breakdown of trust
between the police and public, and the extensive abuse of state institutions by
the ruling political party.
The genie of Moldovan authoritarianism is out of the bottle. Simple EU
persuasion will not be enough to push it back. Huge international pressure
forced even Zimbabwe’s
Robert Mugabe to share power with the opposition in 2008. The job in Moldova might
be much easier, but only if the EU cares enough to act.
The writer is a research fellow at the European Council on Foreign
Relations in London
The European Council on Foreign Relations does not take collective positions. ECFR publications only represent the views of their individual authors.