The impact of the war in Ukraine on the international system
Conference on the war in Ukraine and its consequences on the international system
On June 22, we are organising in person in Paris a conference on the war in Ukraine and its consequences on the international system.
This is a closed-door event. If you would like to register, please send an email to [email protected]
Agenda
09:00 Opening: Opening Session
Welcome remarks
09:30 – 10:45 Session 1: Can Russia lose the war in Ukraine?
Speculations on the consequences of the war in Ukraine are premised on war outcomes that are still highly uncertain. On the one side, for the United-States and some EU member states, the war must end with a Russian defeat that Moscow is unwilling and unlikely to concede. Hence the risk of an escalation by non-conventional means. On the other side, a possible frozen conflict in Europe would generate actual security and political risk in Europe creating in particular grey Zones in the continent. The session will seek to identify potential scenarios for the evolution of the Ukrainian conflict and assess they consequences for the security and political future of the continent.
10:45 – 11:00 Tea/Coffee break
11:00 – 12:15 Session 2: Assessing the impact of the war in Ukraine on the non-proliferation regime
The nuclear dimension of Russia’s war on Ukraine has come to unprecedented levels in Europe. While the 2014 aggression already marked the violation by a nuclear weapon State of its own commitment under the Budapest Memorandum vis-à-vis a State renouncing its nuclear arsenal in exchange for guarantees for its territorial integrity, since the beginning of the 2022 war, Moscow has repeatedly alluded to its status as a nuclear weapon state to discourage all opposition to its invasion of Ukraine. The session will examine the global consequences of the war in Ukraine on the nuclear non-proliferation regime as the 10th review conference of the NPT is about to start.
12:15 – 13:30 Session 3: The war in Ukraine and the Indo-Pacific
The war in Ukraine is not just a European event. It has far-reaching geo-strategic implications. China’s support to Russia has raised question about its intention vis-à-vis the existing international system, but also about Taïwan’s security and increased Western dilemmas regarding resources allocation between Europe and the Indo-Pacific region. This session will examine Indian and European perspectives on these issues.
13:30 Buffet Lunch