The aftermath of Yaya Dillo’s death: implications for Chad and Sudan

On 28 February, Chadian opposition leader Yaya Dillo was killed in a shootout with security forces. He had been accused of leading an attack against the National State Security Agency (ANSE), an allegation he denied. Dillo, leader of the Socialist Party Without Borders (PSF), was a strong contender for the presidential elections scheduled for 6 May 2024. Tensions have been running high ahead of the election. The results of this vote could see Chad return to the constitutional order after three years of military rule.

Historically, Chad’s and Sudan’s fates have been closely intertwined particularly as relates to Darfur, where kinship links Darfuri and Chadian elites. Changes in Chad therefore impact conflict dynamics in Darfur and Sudan while, vice versa, Sudanese elites have an interest in shaping outcomes in Sudan.

Finally, Chad developed new relations with the UAE. In exchange for resources, the UAE uses Chad as a staging ground for its support to conflict parties in Sudan. Russian proxies hover just over Chad’s southern border, in CAR, and have a foothold in Sudan, as well as in Libya. Russian designs on Chad are therefore not difficult to deduce.

In this event we will discuss the current situation in N’djamena and prognosis for further destabilization, possible reactions from Chad’s neighbours (particularly Sudanese actors) and the Darfur-Chad dynamics.