Russia’s preparations for a full-scale war in Ukraine provide it with plenty of coercive options short of a massive invasion. Ukraine and the US may have different assessments of the threat, but they both need to prepare for all likely scenarios.
Another Russian attack on Ukraine would jeopardise talks between Washington and Moscow on strategic stability and a follow-on agreement to New START
The Swedish debate on membership of NATO has been reignited by the Russia-Ukraine crisis. But there are still many good reasons why Sweden should not join the alliance.
Until we stop dithering and commit to all European states being independent and free, Russia will have the upper hand
On a fundamental level, Europe’s lack of agency in the Russia-Ukraine crisis stems from a growing power imbalance in the Western alliance
Regardless of whether Russia launches another major offensive against Ukraine, Belarus’s territory will increasingly become a source of military threats to all its western neighbours – not just Ukraine
Relations between Moldova and Transnistria seem to be losing some of their traditional hostility. But, if Russia is in a hurry to achieve a public relations victory in Moldova, Chisinau will find it difficult to make progress in talks with the Transnistrian authorities.
Before the January 2022 riots, Kazakhstan was a model for managing transitions of power in the post-Soviet world. The leaders of Russia and Belarus will be furiously taking notes on how to avoid a similar fate.
The EU should respond to the Russian threat to Ukraine by making use of its main strength – economic influence. There is no other way for the union to persuade the great powers struggling over Europe’s future that it is a force to be reckoned with.
For France, European sovereignty was at the heart of the recent talks at the meeting of EU foreign ministers in Brest. Paris aims to reinforce Europeans’ position of strength, while doing its utmost to avoid war.