The sick man of Europe is Europe
The ECFR Scorecard 2012 shows that Europe's power is waning – and if the continent doesn't get its act together soon, it could put the global order in serious jeopardy.
The ECFR Scorecard 2012 shows that Europe's power is waning – and if the continent doesn't get its act together soon, it could put the global order in serious jeopardy.
After a frenetic 2011, what are the big trends that are going to shape Europe and the wider world in 2012? Here are ten that ECFR experts think are likely – and one widely predicted trend that we don't think will happen…
Just as the mechanisms that made democracy function in city states were not adequate for governing nation states, representative democracies today are showing themselves incapable of managing, effectively and democratically, the system that is emerging in Europe.
The answer to the EU's current problems is to rebuild from scratch, replacing the existing EU with a new, two layered structure with an inner and an outer core.
The economic crisis is now at a critical point, and Europe's leaders must chose between a federated eurozone power or yielding to the power of the markets and economic and political disruption.
The actions of Britain's coalition government are making it more likely that we will see the EU disintegrate, leaving behind a saved Eurozone that marginalises all those outside it – including Britain itself.
The present crisis of the Eurozone is a direct consequence of a half hearted, half considered, half explained and therefore half finished integration. Europeans must be prepared for sacrifice, but our leaders must make sure that sacrifice is worthwhile.
Throughout the Eurozone crisis, France has been well served by its decisive presidential system. But as thoughts turn to reforming the way the Eurozone works, France must come to terms with the power implications of a more federal system.
The European Union’s combination of crises – of finance, politics, and identity – makes the once unthinkable a real prospect: Europe is not “too big to fail”. What then should concerned Europeans do to ensure their continent's survival and progress?
How might European disintegration play out if we do not learn from past folly? Uncontrolled collapse, a decisive jump forward leading to a big step back, or disintegration in disguise due to benign neglect?