the story changes every day. When people woke up to check the count of the
actual votes, things were not going so well for Tymoshenko, though the overall
result still looks close. The main exit poll last night that was proudly
displayed throughout Tymoshenko’s press conference had her only 4-5% behind.
With 88% of the vote counted at midday Kiev time, the gap is more like 10-11%.
Yanukovych has 35.5% versus Tymoshenko on 25%. Tyhipko is confirmed in third
with 13%. In Ukraine, as in most countries, results from the bigger cities come
in first and Tymoshenko will do better in the countryside, so the gap could
shrink a little.
matter, but less than last time. The snow didn’t help.
candidates can expect a higher price for their support. The gap between the two
rounds is long, at three weeks; and the Yanukovych team already has
demonstrators practising outside parliament. A close result could end up in the
courts – or on the streets. But not like last time – any protest would be short
and contentious. Neither candidate has campaigned at their best. All to play
In Part One of Ukraine Decides, Andrew looks at what went wrong after 2004’s Orange Revolution. You can read Part One here
In Part Two of Ukraine Decides, Andrew examines why Europe should care about the Ukrainian election. You can read Part Two here
In Part Three of Ukraine Decides, Andrew told us what to watch out for on election night. You can read Part Three here here
In Part Four of Ukraine Decides, Andrew casts his eyes over the first exit polls. You can read Part Four here
Andrew Wilson is available for press interviews and comment on the elections. Click here for our press advisory.
The European Council on Foreign Relations does not take collective positions. ECFR publications only represent the views of its individual authors.