This renewed violence suggests a bleak future for Palestinians and Israelis

A toxic cocktail of greater radicalisation, lack of mediators and Binyamin Netanyahu do not bode well for the region

Ask either of the protagonists in this Israel-Hamas flare-up where it ends and they will likely, in private at least and spin notwithstanding, tell you the same thing. Another fragile ceasefire, Hamas retains control of Gaza, Israel retains its blockade against Hamas and by extension its collective punishment of the Gazan civilian population and Hamas continues to be boycotted internationally. Israel will claim that Hamas has been dealt a harsh blow, deterrence restored; Hamas will counter that the resistance stood its ground, that the Israeli Defence Forces were deterred from re-invading.

There are good reasons to bet on this outcome. Israel has no better option. The alternatives – bedding down for a prolonged re-occupation of Gaza, handing Gaza to friendly Palestinians on the back of an Israeli tank, or to Egypt, or weakening Hamas so much that Gaza becomes a Somalia or Anbar-like chaotic ungoverned space – are all either unrealistic or undesirable. Hamas itself has no winning card to play.

Continue reading on the Guardian website.

The European Council on Foreign Relations does not take collective positions. ECFR publications only represent the views of their individual authors.


President, US/Middle East Project

Subscribe to our weekly newsletter

We will store your email address and gather analytics on how you interact with our mailings. You can unsubscribe or opt-out at any time. Find out more in our privacy notice.