Syria conflict: opposition suggests talks with vice president - Tuesday 5 February 2013

Here's a summary of the main events today:

Syria

 Opposition leader Ahmed Moaz al-Khatib has suggested Syria's serving vice president, Farouq al-Sharaa, could lead negotiations for a transition government. In an interview with al-Arabiya Khatib said: “Just because [Sharaa] is part of the regime doesn’t mean that we cannot talk to him. I request the regime to commission Sharaa, (if the regime accepts), for talks with us.”

The grass roots activist group the Local Coordination Committees in Syria has indicated it may be prepared to soften its implacable opposition to negotiations with the Assad regime. Spokeswoman Rafif Jouejati suggested that group may change its policy to agree to talks with officials not implicated in violent repression. Abu Ayhem leader of the Free Syrian Army's al-Bunyan brigade in the southern city of Derra, backed the idea of negotiations with vice president Sharaa but rejected any dialogue with Bashar al-Assad.

Countries from the Islamic Conference Organisation are considering a proposals to support dialogue between the Syrian opposition and government officials "not involved in oppression". Ahead of the conference Syria dominated historic talks between Egypt President Mohamed Morsi and Iran's Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Fayez Sayegh, a prominent member of Assad's Ba'ath party, said talks should start without preconditions. Syria's pro-government daily newspaper al-Watan dismissed Khatib's conditional offer of talks as too little, too late.

 Rebels have executed three brothers, one of them a rebel fighter, and a fourth relative after accusing them of cooperating with President Bashar al-Assad's forces and killing a fellow rebel, according to new video footage. The video showed the four men sitting on chairs while a voice behind the camera says they "have sold their souls to the oppressor regime ... and conspired against their brothers in religion and country". 

 Syria's defence minister has accused Israel of resorting to collaborating with terrorists in Syria by attacking a research centre last week, and he insisted that Syria's military would not be defeated. In an interview on state TV Fahed al-Freiji dismissed the recent fall of air bases in Taftanaz in the north and al-Bukamal in the east as insignificant. He said Taftanaz housed only helicopters that needed repair and was maned by technicians not prepared to fight, while Bukamal was used only by agricultural aircraft.

Bahrain

Bahrain is to begin talks on Sunday with opposition groups in an effort to end nearly two years of unrest over demands for more democracy, Reuters reports.

Opposition groups contacted by Reuters suggested they would attend the talks but cited differences with the government over the goal of the dialogue that could undermine its effectiveness.

Bahraini officials said invitations would be issued later in the day to about 17 pro-government and opposition groups and delegates from the two houses of parliament to attend the talks starting on 10 February.

"We have every intention to make this dialogue a success," Information Affairs Minister Samira Rajab told Reuters. "The onus is on the other parties and their seriousness in pursuing dialogue."

Khalil al-Marzouq, a senior official in the main opposition group Wefaq, said his and other dissident groups were at odds with the government over the aims and mechanism of the talks.

He said that opposition leaders wanted representatives of the ruling Al Khalifa family to participate and had also requested unspecified international experts to attend.

The government had either rejected these demands or sought to defer them for discussion at the talks, he said.

"We want a real dialogue, serious negotiations on a mechanism that will restore powers to the people and turn Bahrain into a constitutional monarchy," Marzouq said.

A coalition of opposition groups, including Wefaq, said the government's call for dialogue could not be genuine while its security forces continued to open fire against protesters.

The joint statement it said:

The opposition parties stressed that talking about dialogue while the security services are aiming guns at citizen's heads is not possible. As long as prisons are filled with political prisoners and opposition figures, the call for dialogue is not serious. Bahrain needs a genuine dialogue and not a public relation party for the regime, while at the same time, its repressive policy continues ...

The opposition stressed that change is coming for Bahrain and the totalitarian rule must come to an end. Only real democracy can achieve stability and development to the nation and all citizens. 

Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas is to send representative to Syria to try to secure the safety of Palestinians caught in fighting, AP reports citing senior official Ahmed Majdalani.

He said said that representatives will meet Syrian officials to try to protect Palestinian areas from fighting. He also said they will try to convince Palestinian factions to stay out of the fighting.

A new London-based campaign, Action Group for Palestinians in Syria, says 851 Palestinians have been killed in the conflict. There were 145 Palestinians casualties in December alone, it says.

Around half of the casualties have been in Damascus where thousands of Palestinians live in the southern district of Yarmouk.

Khatib's suggestion that Syria's vice president Farouq al-Sharaa should lead any negotiations with the Assad government appears to be gaining diplomatic support.

Reuters has seen a draft communique proposed at Tuesday's Cairo summit of the the 56-member Islamic Conference Organisation. It calls for dialogue between the Syrian opposition and government officials "not involved in oppression".

Khatib suggested Sharaa as someone who did not have blood on his hands.

The draft denounces massacres of civilians "perpetrated by the Syrian authorities" and calls on the opposition to speed up the formation of a transitional government, Reuters says.

Iran's president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is in Cairo for the summit and has held talks with President Mohamed Morsi. Syria dominated the talks according to AP.

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There are reports of heavy fighting in an around Aleppo.

Six children were among those killed during a bombardment of the village of Khanser south-east of the city, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

Up to 25 people were killed in the attack, according to opposition websites.

The Observatory claimed government troops were reinforcing their positions in the village in preparation for an assault on al-Safirah which recently fell to rebels from the al-Qaida-linked Jabhat al-Nusra.

The Observatory and other opposition activists also report clashes at roundabout in Nile Street in the north-west of Aleppo and around Hamadaniya stadium in the south-west.

Syria's state news agency accused terrorists of firing mortars at civilians.

The fighting around Nile street is believed to be connected to attempts to take over a nearby army barracks.

The locations mentioned are marked on the map below.

A rebel leader has backed the idea of negotiations with vice president Farouq al-Sharaa but rejected any dialogue with Bashar al-Assad.

Abu Ayhem leader of the Free Syrian Army's al-Bunyan brigade in the southern city of Derra, said he would back any plan that leads to the departure of the Assad government.

Speaking to Mona Mahmood he said:

We do not have a problem with negotiating with Syrian officials whose hands are not smeared with the blood - people like Farouq al-Sharaa. We believe that Sharaa disagrees with Assad, and is under intense pressure from the regime.

We would support any political solution that can speed up the departure of Assad and stop the bloodshed.

But Moaz al-Khatib should not negotiate with a murderer and criminal like Bashar.

We have a list of names of Syrian officials who are in support of the revolution but are still working with the regime. We are happy to put down our arms if this will lead to the exist of Bashar and if he stops shelling our towns and homes. We won't let Bashar leave without a trial for all his barbarous crimes against the Syrian people.

Khatib’s offer of conditional talks with the regime deserves backing from the opposition and the international community, says analyst Julien Barnes-Dacey.

He said it wrong-foots the Syrian government and its allies, and offers a possible way out of the ‘zero-sum game’ of the current conflict.

Barnes-Dacey, Middle East fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, acknowledged resistance to the idea from the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood, the Syrian National Council, and rebel leaders.

But speaking to the Guardian he said the “broader groundswell of support” for the idea bodes well.

It points to the fact that a lot of people are hesitant about where the conflict is going, they see that the country is being brought to its knees, and though Assad is weakening, a full military victory would come at such a high price. An alternative initiative that seeks dialogue as a way out, is perhaps a good step.

Crucially it calls the regime’s bluff, it calls the Iranian’s and the Russian’s bluff about being willing to talk with the opposition ...

Suddenly the fact that the opposition is saying we will meet you, has left them standing quite naked, because for so long that has been their call. This will pull the cloak from any pretence that they are prepared to negotiate.

Barnes-Dacey said Khatib’s initiative will only get wider backing from doubters in the opposition if he can show tangible signs of progress and compromise from the Syrian government.

He said a diplomatic breakthrough is still unlikely because the Assad regime has shown no willingness to compromise, but the offer presents the Syrian government with an awkward choice.

Either they will be forced by their international allies to engage in some process, which would be positive. Or [if they refuse to talk] it pulls away more of their international support and leaves them more isolated, and perhaps gives renewed impetuous to those who call for some kind of humanitarian intervention.

The international community should back the idea “whole heartedly”, Barnes-Dacey said.

For a long time the international community has made the same mistake as the opposition in saying that Assad must go [and] there must be a full victory for the opposition. There is a lot to be said from a moral perspective in terms of saving lives and ending the violence about talking to the regime and trying to push this initiative forward. It should be given full backing. The west could say to Assad ‘This is your last chance. If you reject this the consequences are going to be some form of intervention.’

Syria's pro-government daily newspaper al-Watan has dismissed Khatib's conditional offer of talks as too little, too late, AFP reports (via the Global Post).

It quotes the paper as saying:

Despite their importance, the statements of Sheikh Moaz al-Khatib are two years late. During that time, our finest young men have died, suffered wounds or been exiled, while we have lost our electricity and fuel infrastructure, alongside several military position. Two years have gone by, in which we have lost a lot because of the opposition's stubbornness and their refusal to negotiate.

The opinion piece also suggested that Khatib's conditions for negotiations - the release of 160,000 and the renewal of passports for exiles - were unacceptable.

Khatib's call for conditional dialogue with the Syrian government has been backed by an unlikely source - Ammar Abdulhamid a usually hawkish Syrian dissident and blogger.

Abdulahamid, fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, which is regarded as a NeoCon thinktank, said an armed struggle should continue alongside Khatib's call for talks.

In his latest blogpost Abdulhamid noted the popularity of Khatib and his proposal among ordinary Syrians.

In the public eye, Khatib now appears as one of very few members of the opposition who can support the revolution without being oblivious to the suffering of the people as well ...

Syrian opposition groups need to give Khatib more time to act and should judge the success or failure of his initiative by the change it can produce in western policies towards supporting the opposition and the rebels. And we don’t have to postpone our judgement for too long. If, by May, the Obama administration has not adopted a more proactive attitude towards intervention in Syria, then, we can judge the initiative to have failed. Personally, I would still judge it as a laudable effort that deserves to have been made, and I would still see in Moaz a good and courageous leader for having embarked on this course and tried something different for change ...

I have longed argued that military and political processes are not mutually exclusive, and should not be thought of with an either/or mentality. For unless rebels make serious military gains, including neutralizing Assad’s air power, no viable political process can be launched. Moreover, no political process can be seen as credible if it is not led by figures who can appeal to the grassroots and to the average Syrian, irrespective of his political stands at the moment. We did not have such a figure until Moaz al-Khatib entered the scene.

The grass roots activist group the Local Coordination Committees in Syria has indicated it may be prepared to soften its implacable opposition to negotiations with the Assad regime.

Spokeswoman Rafif Jouejati said the group was wary of opposition leader Moaz al-Khatib's conditional offer of talks with members of the Syrian government.

But in an email to the Guardian she said the subject had become an issue of intense debate in the organisation, and hinted that the LCC may be prepared to accept dialogue with members of the regime not implicated in the killing of civilians.

Khatib has suggested vice president Sharaa as a possible interlocutor who does not have blood on his hands.

Jouejati said:

The LCC supports all efforts to put an end to the suffering of the Syrian people, but is not likely to negotiate directly with Assad or those with blood on their hands. We continue to receive feedback from our own constituency on the ground and will formulate an official position that reflects that.

This signals a possible change in stance from the LCC. Last year Jouejati said she got into a bad tempered row with international envoy Lakhdar Brahimi when the group urged him not to negotiate without first securing a commitment that Assad stand down.

For now, Jouejati noted that Khatib's initial suggestion of talks was a personal proposal and did not reflect the general view of the coalition.

She added:

The LCC is committed to reflecting the voice of the people in Syria, and we highlight that they have made the ultimate sacrifice for freedom, dignity, and democracy. The criminal regime does not understand the concepts of human freedom, and clearly will stop at nothing to maintain its repressive hold over a nation of 22 million people, as evidenced by its repeated targeting of children, bread lines, and schools.

Welcome to Middle East Live.

Here's a roundup of the latest developments and analysis

Syria

Opposition leader Ahmed Moaz al-Khatib has suggested Syria's serving vice president, Farouq al-Sharaa, could lead negotiations for a transition government. In an interview with al-Arabiya Khatib said: “Just because [Sharaa] is part of the regime doesn’t mean that we cannot talk to him. I request the regime to commission Sharaa, (if the regime accepts), for talks with us.”

Army bases that were once considered impregnable are falling to relatively easily to rebels who quickly seize dated weaponry, Martin Chulov reports north of Aleppo. But the rebels are still fearful of attacks from the air. 

 Firas Tmeimi, who took part in the infantry school raid and has since joined attempts to storm other bases, said each operation was a revelation.

"We thought they were strong. But the veil has been lifted. Fear was the regime's greatest weapon. Without that, we can match them," he said, before stopping in mid sentence as a distant roar drew nearer.

"Except for the planes," he added, ducking as a low-flying jet streaked overhead. "Two of them are worth more than all the airbases we've seized."

Rebels have executed three brothers, one of them a rebel fighter, and a fourth relative after accusing them of cooperating with President Bashar al-Assad's forces and killing a fellow rebel, according to new video footage. The video showed the four men sitting on chairs while a voice behind the camera says they "have sold their souls to the oppressor regime ... and conspired against their brothers in religion and country". 

Syria's defence minister has accused Israel of resorting to collaborating with terrorists in Syria by attacking a research centre last week, and he insisted that Syria's military would not be defeated. In an interview on state TV Fahed al-Freiji dismissed the recent fall of air bases in Taftanaz in the north and al-Bukamal in the east as insignificant. He said Taftanaz housed only helicopters that needed repair and was maned by technicians not prepared to fight, while Bukamal was used only by agricultural aircraft.

Egypt

An Egyptian protester has died after allegedly being beaten and strangled for four days by police, just days after another high-profile case of alleged police brutality. The case has strengthening fears among the opposition that Egypt's new democratically elected government has as little respect for human rights as the dictatorship it replaced. According to official hospital records, Mohamed el-Guindy died on Monday as a result of injuries sustained in a car crash.

The recent protests do not threaten to bring down President Mohamed Morsi's government, but they do highlight the need for widespread reform, according to Joshua Stacher assistant professor of political science at Kent State University. Writing in Foreign Affairs he says: 

Egyptians will no longer tolerate old Mubarakist behaviour and practices. Rarely does an opportunity to exact revenge on the police for their past and present transgressions pass unused. Demonstrations about unrelated issues quickly escalate into battles with the state. The police, for their part, are publicly frustrated that citizens no longer fear them. This causes officers to crack down on protesters more violently, which feeds into escalating cycles of violence. 

The security services need to be dissolved and reconstituted with new personnel. There needs to be civilian leadership, as well as legal training about human rights and an outlawing of torture. As long as an unreformed police force is responsible for responding to protests, bloodshed will persist. Meanwhile, the lack of change and political progress makes revolutionaries feel that peaceful, democratic avenues of participation and reform are blocked. Elected state officials remain partisan and weak, the formal opposition remains fragmented, and the state apparatus continues to operate with an outdated mentality. And so Egyptians keep taking to the street. 

Iran