Trump in Beijing: Why the game stays the same for Europe
Donald Trump is in Beijing, but Europeans should not expect decisive guidance or a grand bargain with Xi Jinping. They should instead focus on managing their own exposure to Chinese risks
Trump
The art of the off-ramp: How Europe can pressure Trump to end the war in Iran
As Trump digs his heels into a war with Iran, he faces a growing list of domestic pressures. Europeans can press on these points to push Washington towards a ceasefire
Dispelling Trump’s dystopia: A European blueprint for Gaza’s renewal
Donald Trump’s economic development plan for Gaza highlights the president’s preference for real estate over rights. Europeans and Arab states need to help Palestinians chart their own future
Selling peace to Trump: How Europe can prevent the next Middle East war
Israel is agitating for US strikes against Iran, while preparing for renewed war in Lebanon. Europeans should work to contain Trump and Netanyahu to prevent renewed offensives in both arenas, while supporting Lebanon’s fragile governance
Nuuk-lear standoff: Why the US and Europe should cooperate on missile defence in the Arctic
Greenland has long played a strategic role in Western defence and missile warning systems. Now Trump’s “Golden Dome” plan offers an opportunity for US-Europe cooperation to boost Arctic security and nuclear deterrence
Traps and limits: Why Trump bombing Iran won’t deliver what he wants
The US is locked in a cat-and-mouse game of escalation with Iran. Europeans should work with partners in the Middle East to restrain Trump’s military attacks, prevent broader war and pursue measures to protect against the fates that befell Libya and Syria
Where does Europe go from here?
Beyond showcasing Donald Trump’s “neo-royalist” style of politics, this year’s annual gathering of the global elite in Davos revealed deeper, structural changes that will shape political and business leaders’ decision-making for years to come. Europeans, in particular, must absorb the right lessons
Disintegrated deterrence: What Trump’s National Defense Strategy means for Europe
Donald Trump has rolled out America’s stark new National Defense Strategy. Europeans need to be prepared to take control of their own defence future
Trump’s culture war on Europe is far from over
While unpopular in Europe, Trump’s new penchant for waging war could still help his ideological allies across the continent
Welcome to the jungle: Trump’s Board of Peace goes global
The US president’s Board of Peace has less to do with peace, in Gaza or elsewhere, and more to do with enforcing a new, transactional global order. Welcome to the America-First Trumpian world
Publications
Trump’s European revolution
A major new ECFR poll shows how, six months in, the US president is reshaping European politics and the continent’s geopolitical identity
Articles
Trump in Beijing: Why the game stays the same for Europe
Donald Trump is in Beijing, but Europeans should not expect decisive guidance or a grand bargain with Xi Jinping. They should instead focus on managing their own exposure to Chinese risks
The art of the off-ramp: How Europe can pressure Trump to end the war in Iran
As Trump digs his heels into a war with Iran, he faces a growing list of domestic pressures. Europeans can press on these points to push Washington towards a ceasefire
Dispelling Trump’s dystopia: A European blueprint for Gaza’s renewal
Donald Trump’s economic development plan for Gaza highlights the president’s preference for real estate over rights. Europeans and Arab states need to help Palestinians chart their own future
Selling peace to Trump: How Europe can prevent the next Middle East war
Israel is agitating for US strikes against Iran, while preparing for renewed war in Lebanon. Europeans should work to contain Trump and Netanyahu to prevent renewed offensives in both arenas, while supporting Lebanon’s fragile governance
Nuuk-lear standoff: Why the US and Europe should cooperate on missile defence in the Arctic
Greenland has long played a strategic role in Western defence and missile warning systems. Now Trump’s “Golden Dome” plan offers an opportunity for US-Europe cooperation to boost Arctic security and nuclear deterrence
Traps and limits: Why Trump bombing Iran won’t deliver what he wants
The US is locked in a cat-and-mouse game of escalation with Iran. Europeans should work with partners in the Middle East to restrain Trump’s military attacks, prevent broader war and pursue measures to protect against the fates that befell Libya and Syria
Where does Europe go from here?
Beyond showcasing Donald Trump’s “neo-royalist” style of politics, this year’s annual gathering of the global elite in Davos revealed deeper, structural changes that will shape political and business leaders’ decision-making for years to come. Europeans, in particular, must absorb the right lessons
Disintegrated deterrence: What Trump’s National Defense Strategy means for Europe
Donald Trump has rolled out America’s stark new National Defense Strategy. Europeans need to be prepared to take control of their own defence future
Trump’s culture war on Europe is far from over
While unpopular in Europe, Trump’s new penchant for waging war could still help his ideological allies across the continent
Welcome to the jungle: Trump’s Board of Peace goes global
The US president’s Board of Peace has less to do with peace, in Gaza or elsewhere, and more to do with enforcing a new, transactional global order. Welcome to the America-First Trumpian world
Podcasts
Trump attacks Venezuela
Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Shapiro and Nacho Torreblanca to discuss what Donald Trump’s capture of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro means for the world
Venezuela and Trump’s hemispheric defence agenda
Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Shapiro to discuss the US millitary engagement in Venezuela and Trump’s broader defence strategy
The rise of a worker friendly Republican Party
Mark Leonard welcomes Oren Cass to discuss the Republicans’ turn away from neoliberalism to embracing the working class
Trump’s new Europe: From ally to adversary
Mark Leonard welcomes Célia Belin to discuss how Europe can respond to Donald Trump’s vision of a transformed transatlantic order
Porcupine play: How Taiwan defends its democracy
Mark Leonard welcomes Camille Grand and Janka Oertel to unpack Taiwan’s strategic calculus amid rising global tensions, and Europe’s role in the Indo-Pacific
Live from the Munich Security Conference: Europe’s wake-up call
In Munich, Mark Leonard welcomes Ulrike Franke, Camille Grand, Janka Oertel and Jana Puglierin to unpack this year’s security conference
Europe confronts Trump: the politics of transatlantic relations
Mark Leonard welcomes Camille Lons, Marta Prochwicz Jazowska, Jana Puglierin, José Ignacio Torreblanca and Arturo Varvelli to discuss how European capitals are responding to Trump’s dramatic return to the White House
Events
2
Dec
European Power
A big, beautiful European strategy for Trumponomics
Since the return of U.S. President Donald Trump to the White House in January, European policymakers have been struggling to sketch a sensible response to Trumponomics – an unpredictable, fast-changing and often baffling mix of U.S. trade, investment and finance policies that have a direct impact on Europe’s interests. In her latest ECFR policy brief, Agathe Demarais…
28
Nov
Europe’s Last Chance? What we should do about Trump, China, Ukraine and other challenges of a transactional world
Europe today finds itself facing unprecedented global challenges and surrounded by transactional powers. Donald Trump is poised to redefine the global role of the US – revisiting alliances, challenging NATO, and treating security and trade alike as bargaining chips. China is pressing its advantage in technology, infrastructure, and diplomacy, asking Europeans to choose between principles and…
28
Oct
European Power
La Unión Europea en la era de las guerras comerciales: ¿cómo fortalecer sus instrumentos, estrategias e influencia?
La Unión Europea se encuentra en una coyuntura crítica. La segunda administración Trump ha intensificado la presión comercial sobre Europa con nuevos aranceles y una agenda abiertamente proteccionista. Mientras, China está aprovechando su capacidad industrial y el control sobre minerales estratégicos y tierras raras para reforzar su influencia. En este contexto de creciente…
European Power
Beyond tanks and tariffs: Europe’s culture war with Trump’s America
It’s no longer just about trade or NATO — Trump’s America is challenging Europe’s very values and identity. It is backing like-minded allies across the EU, questioning Europe’s attachment to freedom and democracy, and eager to cast the continent as small, dependent, and immature. Ultimately, it seeks to remake Europe, and the West, in the…
16
Sep
European Power
Il Circolo dell’ECFR – Rise to the Challengers: rivoluzione della politica estera europea?
Il tema di questa edizione de Il Circolo dell’ECFR sono i cosiddetti partiti europei Challengers, ovvero i partiti populisti in ascesa in UE, dalla destra alla sinistra. Tali attori politici stanno progressivamente “scuotendo” il mainstream della politica estera europea, acquisendo sempre più influenza nello scacchiere europeo ed internazionale. Il loro modus operandi, amplificato dal sostegno politico fornito loro…
11
Jun
European Power
Die USA am Scheideweg: Zwischen globaler Führung und nationaler Abschottung
Die transatlantischen Beziehungen, lange Zeit ein stabiles Fundament gemeinsamer Werte und Sicherheit, sind ins Wanken geraten. Spätestens seit der Münchner Sicherheitskonferenz zeigt sich: Das Bild von Freundschaft und Schulterschluss zwischen den USA und Europa bröckelt. Die Rhetorik aus Washington, die Europa teils als ideologischen Gegner betrachtet, und protektionistische Maßnahmen wie Sonderzölle belasten das Verhältnis spürbar
5
Jun
Africa
Shifting Powers: the evolving US-China presence amid the growing role of Russia in Africa
As Africa becomes an increasingly central arena for Russia’s interests, the role of the United States and China is undergoing significant transformation. With Trump’s return to the White House, a broader US economic-military repositioning in Africa to contain external influences seems to occur, while Beijing continues to deepen its structural economic presence across the continent,…
20
May
European Power
Poker Face: Europe’s Strategic Cards in the Geoeconomic Game with the United States
La temporanea sospensione dei dazi imposti dagli Stati Uniti nei confronti dell’Unione Europea non consente all’Europa di abbassare la guardia. Al contrario, è questo il momento di riflettere sia sulla strategia negoziale da adottare, sia sul più ampio contesto delle relazioni economiche transatlantiche. Dalle politiche commerciali e digitali alle leve finanziarie e infrastrutturali strategiche, sono…
European Power
No brain, no brawn: How Trump 2.0 makes an EU Economic Security Network essential
The EU lacks cohesive governance to deploy economic statecraft tools, such as sanctions and export controls, undermining their impact and the bloc’s global credibility. In this webinar, Agathe Demarais and Abraham Newman will discuss their recent policy brief, outlining how the creation of an EU network focused on the design and implementation of these…
29
Apr
Asia
The US-China trade war and implications for Europe and the UK
Donald Trump and Xi Jinping are engaged in a high-stakes game of chicken in the emerging trade war. With more than 150% tariffs on Chinese goods and a reciprocal response from Beijing on US imports, economic relations between the two sides have essentially come to a halt. Lack of clarity around the US endgame creates…
In the media
Arturo Varvelli on Gulf negotiations between war logic and mutual distrust, Netanyahu-Trump tensions, and the future of Hormuz
Arturo Varvelli on the cards the EU must play towards Trump: more integration, common debt, and strategic autonomy
ECFR experts on how Trump uses friends and family as envoys in foreign politics