Case studies of Russian political and military strategy on Europe’s margins

A Russian bear is ranging through Europe’s neighbourhood. What should the continent’s policymakers do about it?

When Europeans talk about Russia, their primary focus—for understandable reasons—tends to be its ongoing war in Ukraine. Yet in Europe’s own near abroad, Moscow is pursuing geopolitical strategies that could prove as relevant for Europe as events in the Donbas and the Black Sea. To the north and east, Russia is expanding its footprint in the Arctic. To the south, it has re-entrenched itself in Libya and made the country a hub for its activities on Europe’s Mediterranean flank. Beyond the Sahara, it is establishing a chain of client regimes.

Taking a long-term view, ECFR’s authors have researched Russian influence—economic, political, military, societal—across Europe’s margins. The result is a complex, multi-dimensional story with several overarching conclusions: Europeans must become more alive to the weaponisation of interdependence; better at supplying their own defence; and more proactive in seeking partnerships with like-minded global powers. The bear is now at the door. With the right policies, Europeans can lock it out.

Illustrations by Chris Eichberger