Clumsy ships, big risks: China’s evolving maritime playbook
China’s maritime grey-zone activities threaten Taiwan’s and Europe’s security. Europeans need to work with Indo-Pacific partners to expose and counter China’s evolving tactics
Taiwan
The Taiwan test: Why Europe should help deter China
China’s military capabilities are growing and its actions in Europe are becoming more disruptive. The EU should support Taiwan with dual-use technologies and defence cooperation to send a clear signal to Beijing
Strait talking: What’s behind China’s military drills around Taiwan
China’s recent military exercises around Taiwan highlight its escalating ambitions and hybrid tactics aimed at reshaping the region. Europeans must strengthen their cooperation with Taiwan—and each other—to ensure maritime security
Taiwan’s balancing act: Keeping the US in, China out, and domestic technology superior
Amid the global political turmoil, Taipei is aiming to keep Washington onside. But the arrival of the second Trump administration presents a parallel opportunity for Europe and Taiwan to deepen their cooperation in areas of mutual interest
Porcupine play: How Taiwan defends its democracy
Mark Leonard welcomes Camille Grand and Janka Oertel to unpack Taiwan’s strategic calculus amid rising global tensions, and Europe’s role in the Indo-Pacific
Asia
EU sanctions for a conflict around Taiwan: What’s Europe’s leverage against China?
As the United States shifts its focus toward Southeast Asia and China, Europe faces a critical moment in evaluating its own approach to a potential conflict over Taiwan. Perhaps counterintuitively, the EU likely holds more economic leverage over China than the bloc typically assumes. This is because Beijing would probably factor in retaliatory sanctions…
Hard, fast, and where it hurts: Lessons from Ukraine-related sanctions for a Taiwan conflict scenario
In the coming years, China’s leaders could make good on their pledges to “reunify” Taiwan and the Chinese mainland by force. European policymakers need to begin preparing economic statecraft options for such a scenario – and they need to do so now
1
Oct
Asia
Lessons from Ukraine: Mapping out EU sanctions options for a Taiwan conflict
Picture this scenario: the year is 2028 and Western intelligence services have reached an alarming conclusion. Credible sources suggest that China is about to impose a maritime blockade around Taiwan – a step that intelligence officers believe will precede a full-scale invasion of the territory. As the world braces for impact, the European Union…
In the same boat: Why Taiwan is strengthening ties with central and eastern Europe
Based on the idea that Russia’s and China’s increasingly aggressive foreign policies are interrelated, Taipei is strengthening ties with central and eastern Europe
High stakes in the strait: US -China competition and Taiwan’s future
Mark Leonard welcomes Dmitri Alperovitch to discuss US-China competition and the likelihood of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan
Publications
The Taiwan test: Why Europe should help deter China
China’s military capabilities are growing and its actions in Europe are becoming more disruptive. The EU should support Taiwan with dual-use technologies and defence cooperation to send a clear signal to Beijing
Hard, fast, and where it hurts: Lessons from Ukraine-related sanctions for a Taiwan conflict scenario
In the coming years, China’s leaders could make good on their pledges to “reunify” Taiwan and the Chinese mainland by force. European policymakers need to begin preparing economic statecraft options for such a scenario – and they need to do so now
Articles
Clumsy ships, big risks: China’s evolving maritime playbook
China’s maritime grey-zone activities threaten Taiwan’s and Europe’s security. Europeans need to work with Indo-Pacific partners to expose and counter China’s evolving tactics
Strait talking: What’s behind China’s military drills around Taiwan
China’s recent military exercises around Taiwan highlight its escalating ambitions and hybrid tactics aimed at reshaping the region. Europeans must strengthen their cooperation with Taiwan—and each other—to ensure maritime security
Taiwan’s balancing act: Keeping the US in, China out, and domestic technology superior
Amid the global political turmoil, Taipei is aiming to keep Washington onside. But the arrival of the second Trump administration presents a parallel opportunity for Europe and Taiwan to deepen their cooperation in areas of mutual interest
In the same boat: Why Taiwan is strengthening ties with central and eastern Europe
Based on the idea that Russia’s and China’s increasingly aggressive foreign policies are interrelated, Taipei is strengthening ties with central and eastern Europe
The red flags ahead: What to expect from Taiwan’s election
Tensions over Taiwan are likely to rise in the aftermath of this weekend’s election, regardless of who wins. The next president will seek closer ties with Europe, which will necessitate a more coherent and unified policy
The costs of escalation: How political leaders can build more public support for Taiwan
Voters in Europe and the G7 still lack a clear idea of what Chinese action against Taiwan could mean for their own lives. Political leaders should start to remedy this
Democratic deterrence: Why Europeans should challenge China’s narrative on Taiwan
Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan is no deviation from established protocols as China claims. Rather, it is a sign of a fundamental change in lawmakers’ ability to support democracy
Podcasts
Porcupine play: How Taiwan defends its democracy
Mark Leonard welcomes Camille Grand and Janka Oertel to unpack Taiwan’s strategic calculus amid rising global tensions, and Europe’s role in the Indo-Pacific
High stakes in the strait: US -China competition and Taiwan’s future
Mark Leonard welcomes Dmitri Alperovitch to discuss US-China competition and the likelihood of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan
Events
1
Oct
Asia
Lessons from Ukraine: Mapping out EU sanctions options for a Taiwan conflict
Picture this scenario: the year is 2028 and Western intelligence services have reached an alarming conclusion. Credible sources suggest that China is about to impose a maritime blockade around Taiwan – a step that intelligence officers believe will precede a full-scale invasion of the territory. As the world braces for impact, the European Union…
Asia
EU sanctions for a conflict around Taiwan: What’s Europe’s leverage against China?
As the United States shifts its focus toward Southeast Asia and China, Europe faces a critical moment in evaluating its own approach to a potential conflict over Taiwan. Perhaps counterintuitively, the EU likely holds more economic leverage over China than the bloc typically assumes. This is because Beijing would probably factor in retaliatory sanctions…
In the media
Elli-Katharina Pohlkamp on the diplomatic conflict between China and Japan surrounding Taiwan
James Crabtree on the need for US allies to adapt to the revolution in U.S. foreign policy under Trump
China learned that the West can get their act together on sanctions when they have to
Agathe Demarais on China studying Russia’s sanctions evasion to prepare for a Taiwan conflict