New ECFR research reveals that Europeans are split about the long-term goals of the war in Ukraine. Unless political leaders find a new language to bridge the gap between emerging “Peace” and “Justice” camps, Europe could become polarised between – and within – countries.
We are not on a path to nuclear war – but strong deterrence measures from the West can help ensure that scenario remains unlikely
Ukraine has mounted an innovative response to Russian aggression in 2022. The rest of Europe can learn from this – but should continue to provide weapons and training in return
European leaders must shift from supplying only short-term military support for Ukraine to providing long-term strategic assistance
Mark Leonard is joined by Fyodor Lukyanov to learn more about the Russian perspective on global order
Concerns are mounting that Belarusian troops could join Russia’s forces in Ukraine. But this course of action would be extremely risky – for both Putin and Lukashenka
Russia is using Iranian-made drones to make up for its other shortcomings. Their use is unlikely to prove a game-changer – but Europeans should still assist Ukraine to defend against them
Putin’s mobilisation is unlikely to change the direction of the war – if Ukraine’s Western allies remain steadfast in their support
Vladimir Putin may find his war on Ukraine toughens up the West rather than hastens its demise
Moldova’s total dependence on Russian gas makes it a key front in Moscow’s hybrid war. The EU should help Moldova diversify its energy supplies to prevent further destabilisation.
Vladimir Putin’s mobilisation is a sign of desperation. Yet Ukraine will still need weapons deliveries to help respond to the arrival of thousands of Russian conscripts.
Ukraine has mounted an innovative response to Russian aggression in 2022. The rest of Europe can learn from this – but should continue to provide weapons and training in return
The EU should conclude a security compact with Ukraine. Such an agreement would help the country defend itself against Russia and maximise the effectiveness of European military support.
To signal their commitment to Ukraine, Europeans should agree a ‘long-war plan’ of assistance against Russian aggression. This would include a ‘security compact,’ security assurances, and economic and energy support.
Russia’s war on Ukraine means the EU must devise a new approach to its neighbourhood. It should establish a Partnership for Enlargement that offers Ukraine and other states concrete steps towards deeper integration.
New ECFR research reveals that Europeans are split about the long-term goals of the war in Ukraine. Unless political leaders find a new language to bridge the gap between emerging “Peace” and “Justice” camps, Europe could become polarised between – and within – countries.
Europeans have found India’s position on the Ukraine war frustrating. But, although it is dependent on Russia for its arms, and has huge worries about China, India is actually moving inexorably closer to the West.
Europeans are united around three key ideas about the war in Ukraine. The crisis will likely test their readiness to defend the European security order.
The EU needs to develop an Anti-Coercion Instrument that acts as a powerful economic deterrent, but this alone will not sufficiently protect Europe against economic coercion
Russia’s capacity to carry out large-scale military operations against Black Sea states allows it to coerce and extort them
Dramatic change may not be on the cards, but the EU can and should shift to a ‘status quo plus’ approach that builds on existing activity
We are not on a path to nuclear war – but strong deterrence measures from the West can help ensure that scenario remains unlikely
European leaders must shift from supplying only short-term military support for Ukraine to providing long-term strategic assistance
Concerns are mounting that Belarusian troops could join Russia’s forces in Ukraine. But this course of action would be extremely risky – for both Putin and Lukashenka
Russia is using Iranian-made drones to make up for its other shortcomings. Their use is unlikely to prove a game-changer – but Europeans should still assist Ukraine to defend against them
Putin’s mobilisation is unlikely to change the direction of the war – if Ukraine’s Western allies remain steadfast in their support
Vladimir Putin may find his war on Ukraine toughens up the West rather than hastens its demise
Moldova’s total dependence on Russian gas makes it a key front in Moscow’s hybrid war. The EU should help Moldova diversify its energy supplies to prevent further destabilisation.
Vladimir Putin’s mobilisation is a sign of desperation. Yet Ukraine will still need weapons deliveries to help respond to the arrival of thousands of Russian conscripts.
Europeans will have to put their money where their mouth is to maintain relations with the US over Ukraine – and deliver a ‘long war plan’, such as that proposed by ECFR
The European Union should offer Ukraine preferential access to the single market, and help avoid predictions of a ‘long war’ becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy
Mark Leonard is joined by Fyodor Lukyanov to learn more about the Russian perspective on global order
Mark Leonard is joined by ECFR’s Piotr Buras, Gustav Gressel, Kadri Liik, and Jeremy Shapiro to describe and debate the potential military, security, and economic aspects of the long-war plan
New ECFR research reveals that Europe’s remarkable unity in the early days of the war is under threat from an emerging split – between those who want peace as soon as possible and those who favour justice for Ukraine
How sustainable is European unity? And what scenarios of solidarity or division can be expected in the next few months?
What can Sweden and Finland offer NATO? And are they worried about the Kremlin’s threats to attack their countries?
On location at the Doha Forum 2022, Mark Leonard and his guests discuss Western energy sanctions on Russia and why is there a reluctance in the Gulf states and the West to cooperate on energy supplies
What concepts define Ukrainian history and identity, and how is this important in understanding Ukraine’s response to the Russian invasion?
How should Europe react to Russian loss or indeed victory in this war? And what are the possible ramifications for the West?
What kind of role did foreign policy play in the election campaigns before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and what role is it playing now?
How is Russia’s attack on Ukraine perceived in China? Will Russia and China be joining forces in an ‘alliance of autocracies’? What does Russian and Chinese policymakers planning look like now – and what should Europeans do?
Conference on the war in Ukraine and its consequences on the international system
How to effectively separate the Belarusian society from the regime when taking sanctions measures? Will the independence of Belarus survive international isolation left alone with an expansionist Russia?
This event is part of the German Forum on Security Policy, organised by the Federal Academy for Security Policy (BAKS).
Agresja Rosji na Ukrainę zburzyła podstawy gospodarczych i strategicznych stosunków Unii Europejskiej z Rosją, które do tej pory w dużej mierze opierały się na handlu…
In our sixth India-China Luncheon Lecture, Professor C. Raja Mohan will discuss the implications of Russia’s war in Ukraine on India’s relations with China, the US, and the EU.
Il conflitto in Ucraina ha confermato l’urgenza di un’azione congiunta europea su energia e clima
Gli europei richiedono maggiore cooperazione a lungo termine su diversi dossier, in particolare in materia di sicurezza e difesa
What instruments does the EU have at its disposal to address the challenges related to the crisis? And what are the lessons learned from the refugee crisis in 2015?
With the EU’s High Representative as our honoured guest, the panel will explore the birth of a geopolitical Europe and the new dimensions of European power with a focus on the tech, economic, and security terrains
Ahead of the EU summit, French and Polish experts will discuss the European security situation as the war in Ukraine unfolds. They will analyse the current developments, EU’s role in the conflict and challenges for the EU security and defence in the upcoming months.
Gustav Gressel explains in the podcast whether and how another Russian offensive would be possible
It’s about Poland’s moral superiority in relation with Germany and the whole of Western Europe; that Poland was right on Russia unlike Germany
It would be an enormously difficult act, which Kiev will probably not allow itself to undertake as long as other fronts are still open
As long as Russia continues to prepare for war and builds up its defensive capabilities, from the Ukrainian point of view the prospect of negotiation is not credible
