A call on Europe to help prevent large-scale war between Iran and the United States
ECFR Council members urge European governments to pull every available lever to prevent escalation in the Middle East
Middle East Crisis
Featured
Enough is enough: Europe needs to oppose Israel’s aggression
Israel has become the Middle East’s leading destabiliser, threatening key European interests. Europe must avoid making the same mistakes that led to the 2003 Iraq invasion, prioritise diplomacy and urge the US not to get entangled in a war with Iran
Europe must act now to prevent a major war between Israel and Iran
Israel’s unprecedented strikes across Iran have shattered nuclear diplomacy and paved the way for regional war. As America scrambles to respond, Europeans can help curb dangerous escalation
Iran nuclear monitor: Month by month
America and Israel have bombed Iran since 2025 to block Tehran’s path to nuclear weapons. ECFR’s interactive dashboard, updated monthly, assesses current evidence about Iran’s nuclear activities to determine which of six possible scenarios is most likely
Hormuz hold’em: How to stop the US-Iran crisis in the strait
If Trump follows through on his threat to bomb Iran’s energy infrastructure, the Strait of Hormuz is likely to shut down entirely and the catastrophic energy crisis will deepen. Europeans need to push for an urgent and sustainable ceasefire
War over law: Europe’s unforced errors over the use of force in Iran
Some European leaders’ comments are going even further than overlooking the unlawful nature of the war—and could open the door to a further weakening of the non-aggression principle
A war with no winners: The costs of US-Israeli aggression on Iran
US and Israeli strikes on Iran have plunged the Middle East into wider war. Retaliation, regional entanglements and disrupted trade make one outcome clear: no side will achieve an easy victory
The world in 2026
Mark Leonard welcomes Julien Barnes-Dacey, Jana Kobzová, Andrew Small and Alex Vines to discuss upcoming political changes in 2026
The power of the possible: A step-by-step approach to strengthen human rights in the Middle East
European credibility to uphold human rights in the Middle East has faded, but the EU can still have an impact by backing social and economic rights, empowering people through reform
Decommission, not disarm: How Europe can help nudge Gaza toward peace
As Israel and Hamas edge toward a ceasefire, shifts are under way in both: Hamas is quietly opening up to decommissioning and Israel’s security elite is realising military victory is a myth. European leaders have a rare chance to help shift the Gaza war from attrition to political resolution
In the crossfire: How the Gulf can support de-escalation between Iran and Israel
Once fierce advocates of military action against Tehran, Gulf countries now call for restraint and diplomacy. No longer viewing Trump as a partner; they now fear the US may be more liability than protection
Axis of unease: Why Europeans should try to manage a Turkey-Israel rivalry
The 12-day war between Israel and Iran could have serious implications across the Middle East, not least by exacerbating ongoing tensions between Turkey and Israel. Europeans need to reassure Ankara that they are focused on regional stability—and take Turkey’s defence concerns seriously
A call on Europe to help prevent large-scale war between Iran and the United States
ECFR Council members urge European governments to pull every available lever to prevent escalation in the Middle East
Publications
The power of the possible: A step-by-step approach to strengthen human rights in the Middle East
European credibility to uphold human rights in the Middle East has faded, but the EU can still have an impact by backing social and economic rights, empowering people through reform
Pieces in motion: Rebalancing power in a new Levantine order
How Europe can use the current moment of flux in the Middle East to help stabilise Iraq, Lebanon and Syria
Beyond proxies: Iran’s deeper strategy in Syria and Lebanon
Iran has spent decades building up its influence in the Levant as part of its deterrence posture against Israel (and the US). The war in Gaza is now pushing the longstanding Israeli-Iranian conflict out into the open – and Lebanon and Syria are potential flashpoints for further escalation
Hedge politics: Turkey’s search for balance in the Middle East
Ankara is trying to normalise its relationships with Middle Eastern governments. The EU needs to adjust to the new Turkey that is emerging from this process
Articles
Hormuz hold’em: How to stop the US-Iran crisis in the strait
If Trump follows through on his threat to bomb Iran’s energy infrastructure, the Strait of Hormuz is likely to shut down entirely and the catastrophic energy crisis will deepen. Europeans need to push for an urgent and sustainable ceasefire
War over law: Europe’s unforced errors over the use of force in Iran
Some European leaders’ comments are going even further than overlooking the unlawful nature of the war—and could open the door to a further weakening of the non-aggression principle
A war with no winners: The costs of US-Israeli aggression on Iran
US and Israeli strikes on Iran have plunged the Middle East into wider war. Retaliation, regional entanglements and disrupted trade make one outcome clear: no side will achieve an easy victory
Decommission, not disarm: How Europe can help nudge Gaza toward peace
As Israel and Hamas edge toward a ceasefire, shifts are under way in both: Hamas is quietly opening up to decommissioning and Israel’s security elite is realising military victory is a myth. European leaders have a rare chance to help shift the Gaza war from attrition to political resolution
In the crossfire: How the Gulf can support de-escalation between Iran and Israel
Once fierce advocates of military action against Tehran, Gulf countries now call for restraint and diplomacy. No longer viewing Trump as a partner; they now fear the US may be more liability than protection
Axis of unease: Why Europeans should try to manage a Turkey-Israel rivalry
The 12-day war between Israel and Iran could have serious implications across the Middle East, not least by exacerbating ongoing tensions between Turkey and Israel. Europeans need to reassure Ankara that they are focused on regional stability—and take Turkey’s defence concerns seriously
A call on Europe to help prevent large-scale war between Iran and the United States
ECFR Council members urge European governments to pull every available lever to prevent escalation in the Middle East
Enough is enough: Europe needs to oppose Israel’s aggression
Israel has become the Middle East’s leading destabiliser, threatening key European interests. Europe must avoid making the same mistakes that led to the 2003 Iraq invasion, prioritise diplomacy and urge the US not to get entangled in a war with Iran
Expansion in the shadows: The dangers of Israeli aggression in the West Bank
As Europeans focus on Israel’s intensifying conflict with Iran, the country is continuing its expansionist project in the West Bank, jeopardising any remaining chance for a two-state solution
Europe must act now to prevent a major war between Israel and Iran
Israel’s unprecedented strikes across Iran have shattered nuclear diplomacy and paved the way for regional war. As America scrambles to respond, Europeans can help curb dangerous escalation
Specials
Iran nuclear monitor: Month by month
America and Israel have bombed Iran since 2025 to block Tehran’s path to nuclear weapons. ECFR’s interactive dashboard, updated monthly, assesses current evidence about Iran’s nuclear activities to determine which of six possible scenarios is most likely
Podcasts
The world in 2026
Mark Leonard welcomes Julien Barnes-Dacey, Jana Kobzová, Andrew Small and Alex Vines to discuss upcoming political changes in 2026
What to expect from the conflict between Israel and Iran
Mark Leonard welcomes Ellie Geranmayeh and Eran Etzion to unpack the latest developments in the conflict between Iran and Israel
Israel attacks Iran: Europe’s role in stopping a dangerous regional war
Mark Leonard welcomes Ellie Geranmayeh to unpack Israel’s unprecedented strikes on Iran and the risk of regional escalation
Swamp Chronicles: Matt Duss on progressive foreign policy in the Middle East and Ukraine
Aslı Aydıntaşbaş and Jeremy Shapiro welcome to Matt Duss to discuss American policy in the Middle East and the future of progressive foreign policy
Regional war in the Middle East: Anatomy of a conflict one year after 7 October
Mark Leonard welcomes Julien Barnes-Dacey, Ellie Geranmayeh, and Hugh Lovatt to discuss the regional war in the Middle East one year on from the 7 October Hamas attack on Israel
Understanding the multipolar Middle East
Mark Leonard welcomes Ellie Geranmayeh and Alistair Burt to understand the new multipolar order in the Middle East
Events
Middle East and North Africa
After October 7 and after Raisi: Where next for Iranian foreign policy and the Western response?
A discussion assessing Iranian foreign policy following Hamas’s attacks of 7 October, Israel’s war on Gaza and the death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi
Africa
Corridoio India-Medio Oriente-Europa: tra sfide attuali e potenziale strategico
La discussione “Corridoio India-Medio Oriente-Europa: tra sfide attuali e potenziale strategico”, organizzata dall’ufficio di Roma dello European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) ed ELEC – European League for Economic Cooperation, avrà luogo, in forma virtuale, mercoledì 12 giugno 2024 dalle ore 16:30 alle ore 18:00 sulla piattaforma Zoom
28
May
Asia
Connessioni infinite: Italia, Europa e progetto IMEC
L’IMEC è un progetto a lungo termine che richiede investimenti considerevoli e presenta notevoli ostacoli interni ed esterni. Ma il potenziale del corridoio di rafforzare i legami tra potenze diverse potrebbe rivelarsi prezioso in questo mondo frammentato e turbolento, con benefici geopolitici e geoeconomici per Europa ed i suoi partner
23
May
Middle East and North Africa
Il Circolo dell’ECFR – Corridoio IMEC: prospettive per Italia ed UE
Il tema di questa edizione de Il Circolo dell’ECFR sono le prospettive del corridoio IMEC come ponte economico tra Oriente ed Occidente
21
Feb
Africa
The externalization of Europe’s borders: the only solution?
Migration in the Mediterranean has been a crisis factor for Europe for decades. To shed light on the issue, the discussion will revolve around ECFR’s policy brief edited by Lorena Stella Martini and Tarek Megerisi, which examines the case study of the Central Mediterranean route to analyse European externalization policies, focusing primarily on migration to Italy
European Power
What do middle powers think? The view from Saudi Arabia
Many people outside the West want Europe and the US in their lives for all they have to offer – but that does not translate into political alignment. Instead, they prefer to live in a world where they can trade with China, enjoy security cooperation with the US, and emulate the European way of life
4
May
European Power
Embracing the Long War: Scenari per Europa & Italia
La conferenza è l’evento finale del progetto “Rome Foreign Policy Club: Gruppo di riflessione strategica su Italia, multilateralismo e interconnessioni”, con focus sugli scenari globali e per il Mediterraneo allargato dopo l’invasione dell’Ucraina
In the media
Cinzia Bianco on rethinking IMEC in light of the Hormuz crisis and the new balance of power in the Gulf
Jana Kobzová on the military and diplomatic transaction between Kyiv and Middle East amid escalating wars
Carl Bildt on Trump administration, tariffs, military strategies, wars in Ukraine and Middle East
Beth Oppenheim on how is Spain’s stance against US-Israeli war against Iran affecting Europe
Szymon Kardaś on the implications of the war in the Middle East for Moscow and beyond