The recent upheaval to the global energy landscape has made energy sovereignty an urgent goal for the European Union, traditionally heavily dependent on imports. Geopolitical shocks like the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East and the re-election of Donald Trump as US president present challenges to the security of the EU’s fossil fuel supply and the pace of its green transition. Yet according to the latest data, 2023 also brought significant developments to renewable energy sources (RES), with record increases in RES generation capacity and in the share of global electricity production.

Successive editions of the United Nations climate change conference (COP), including COP29 in Azerbaijan, have stressed the need to accelerate clean energy projects: this is not only to enhance energy security, but to limit global warming to well below 2°C (relative to the ‘pre-industrial’ era, with a target of 1.5°C) as per the Paris Agreement. As things stand, however, just a few countries among the largest emitters have policies or pledges to reduce emissions to the necessary level. If countries do not change their policies, temperatures are on track to reach 2.6°C to 3.1°C above the pre-industrial era by 2100, according to a recent UN report. Rising temperatures and rising tensions makes monitoring the strength of the EU’s energy sovereignty even more important.

ECFR’s Energy Sovereignty Index serves as a guide towards adopting a more forward-thinking strategy. It uses four key dimensions that comprise the bloc’s energy sovereignty: cleanness (the proportion of renewables versus fossil fuels in the energy mix), independence (reliance on imported energy), efficiency (trends in primary and final energy consumption), and narrative (the scope and quality of energy sovereignty discussions among EU member states). This is the second edition of the Energy Sovereignty Index, following the publication of the first edition in September 2023.

Categories

Energy independence remains a weakness for the bloc, with the EU-wide average score languishing at a mere 4.0 out of 10, up just 0.4 from 2023

The 2024 index findings reveal a mixed picture. Member states made significant progress in some categories, but urgently need to improve in others. Energy independence remains a weakness for the bloc, with the EU-wide average score languishing at a mere 4.0 out of 10, up just 0.4 from 2023. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 led to modest progress, as countries were pushed to drastically reduce their dependence on Russian gas: as recently as 2021, the share of gas imports coming from Russia’s Gazprom to the EU was more than 40 per cent. By 2023, it stood at just 8 per cent – a huge achievement for the bloc. But despite cutting reliance on Russian fossil fuels, most EU countries remain heavily dependent on imports of oil, gas, coal, and electricity from other countries. A striking 17 countries score below 5.0 in this category, with Belgium, Italy, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, and Portugal performing particularly poorly. To improve their energy sovereignty, EU member states should focus more strongly on sourcing alternative energy sources to protect their supply from future geopolitical shocks.

A crucial way to achieve independence – and meet climate targets – is by boosting the cleanness of the EU’s energy sources. Here, member states have performed strongly, with an average score of 8.1, up from 7.3 in last year’s index. The increasing share of renewables in the energy mix is a success story, with 20 countries scoring above 7.0 and nine surpassing 9.0, led by Denmark and Sweden. The results show that the vast majority of EU countries are investing in RES, which not only reduces dependence on fossil fuel imports in the long term but contributes to further decarbonisation of electricity generation in the EU. Nevertheless, some countries are still playing catch-up; the Czech Republic is lagging with the lowest score of 5.0.

Likewise, despite a commendable overall European energy efficiency score of 7.5, up 0.2 from 2023, some EU countries still fall short of the mark. On the one hand, most countries managed to achieve the EU’s 2020 targets regarding primary and final energy consumption and improved their performance. However, recent data indicate that the bloc may still fall behind the EU’s more ambitious 2030 goals. In the efficiency category 16 countries score above 7.0, while Finland, Greece, Italy, Latvia, and Romania achieved scores above 9.0. At the same time, Lithuania struggles at the bottom with just 4.4. To reach the 2030 targets, the bloc will need to speed up its development of energy efficiency.

Finally, despite some “greenlash” to the European green deal, the overall narrative regarding energy security and energy sovereignty in EU member states is strong, with the EU-wide average at 6.9. (An update to this score was not possible due to a lack of available data.) Cyprus, Lithuania, and the Netherlands are leading the pack, and no member state scores below 5.0. Most EU leaders emphasise the need to diversify sources of fossil fuel supply, but also to accelerate energy transition processes, which is an important way of strengthening energy sovereignty in the long term.

Energy Sovereignty Index 2024

Based on the results in the above categories, the Energy Sovereignty Index reveals a range of performance across four distinct groups of member states: laggards, dependent achievers, emerging sovereigntists, and independent decarbonisers. Encouragingly, comparing the index’s 2023 results, the number of laggards has decreased, while the rank of energy sovereigntist has grown.

The group of laggards (Belgium, Bulgaria, Ireland, Lithuania and Malta) face significant challenges, relying heavily on energy imports and showing limited progress in other areas. Despite some improvements in cleanness, their overall scores remain poor. Dependent achievers (Austria, Cyprus, Czech Republic, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, and Spain) maintain satisfactory average scores. These countries balance heavy reliance on energy imports with progress in at least one area, such as Austria’s top-tier cleanness performance (9.7). Similarly, Hungary and Slovakia improved their standing due to advancements in cleanness and energy efficiency.

Emerging sovereigntists (Croatia, Denmark, Estonia, Latvia, Romania, Slovenia, and Sweden) are making strides, particularly Romania, with exceptional energy efficiency (10.0) and reduced import dependence (8.1). Estonia also deserves a mention in this group, scoring above 8.0 in three categories (independence, cleanness, and efficiency). As an independent decarboniser, Finland’s an example for rest of the bloc, with high levels of energy independence and cleanness, and boasting the highest overall score at 8.8. Such front-runners are leading the way in redefining the EU’s energy landscape.

The spread of scores across member states shows major inequalities within the EU in terms of the level of energy sovereignty and, consequently, some countries face greater challenges in this area. But the number of EU countries improving their energy sovereignty steadily increasing since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine is a positive: clearly, the bloc can adapt quickly when pressed. In particular, the invasion has led the EU to re-evaluate its approach to energy security (the European Commission’s REPowerEU programme, announced in May 2022, already called for EU countries to completely abandon energy imports from Russia by 2027). In response, most EU member states have stepped up their strategies in the right direction – diversifying their fossil fuel supply and the increasing share of RES in their energy consumption.

According to the Energy Sovereignty Index 2024, the EU has made progress both overall (up from 6.1 to 6.6) and in individual categories: cleanness, up from 7.2 to 8.1; independence, up from 3.6 to 4.0; and efficiency, up from 7.3 to 7.5. At the same time, the bloc’s most significant challenges remain its high level of dependence on fossil fuel imports and the need to improve energy efficiency in order not only to meet EU 2030 climate targets, but to ultimately achieve climate neutrality by 2050.