The Polish election by numbers
Polling on the upcoming election in Poland reflects a society often at odds with the ruling party. This is the election broken down by numbers.
Experts & Staff
Piotr Buras
Head, ECFR Warsaw
Senior Policy Fellow
Areas of expertise
Germany's EU and foreign policy; Poland in the EU; EU politics
Languages
Polish, German, English
Biography
Piotr Buras is the head of ECFR’s Warsaw office and a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. His topics of focus include Germany’s EU and foreign policy, Poland in the EU, and EU politics.
Buras is a journalist, author and expert on German and European politics. Between 2008 and 2012 he worked as a columnist and Berlin correspondent for Gazeta Wyborcza, the biggest Polish daily newspaper. He started his professional career in the late 1990s at the Center for International Relations in Warsaw, one of the first Polish think-tanks. He continued his career at the Institute for German Studies at the University of Birmingham and at the University of Wroclaw (Poland). He was also a visiting fellow at the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik in Berlin. His recent book Moslems and the Other Germans. The Reinvention of the Berlin Republic was published in Polish in 2011.
Von der Leyen’s EU Commission: Picks for a Union that strives for more
Mark Leonard is meeting his ECFR colleagues, Tara Varma, Piotr Buras and Teresa Coratello in Berlin to go through the newly selected EU Commission. What…
Polish WWII anniversary highlights transatlantic rifts
A hurricane has forced the US president to cancel his state visit to Poland to mark a dark day in history — but that won’t hide the damage he has done to US-German-Polish relations.
The EU must defend its rule-of-law revolution
A recent EU court ruling has sent a chill down the spines of populist governments determined to undermine judicial independence. The new Commission must defend this crucial victory.
State of disunion: Europe, NATO, and disintegrating arms control
Splits between Germany and Poland vis-à-vis Russia signal deeper divisions in the alliance, ones which threaten European security
Warsaw ‘Iran’ summit: What lies beneath
ECFR experts share their insight into the manouevres around next month’s US-Poland summit. What does it mean for the JPCOA, and what steps should European countries take in response?
Nord Stream 2: ECFR opinions
Nord Stream 2 is a contentious project – here, ECFR experts weigh in on the debate with an array of opinions on the topic
Divided at the centre: Germany, Poland, and the troubles of the Trump era
Introduction For most Europeans, it is now obvious that the foreign policy of US President Donald Trump threatens the global liberal order. Trump’s hostility towards…
Reluctant leadership
The disengaged culture of military moderation promoted by Berlin restricts the EU from playing a geopolitical role and puts the future of NATO at risk
How are Europeans seeing Trump’s performance at the NATO summit?
Jeremy Shapiro covers for Mark Leonard and speaks with Ulrike Franke, Manuel Lafont Rapnouil and Piotr Buras, about what this means and what the Trump-Putin…
Publications
Catch-27: The contradictory thinking about enlargement in the EU
A new power audit of member states’ positions on EU enlargement shows broad agreement that it is a geopolitical necessity, but major disagreements about how to prepare the EU. To make credible progress, EU member states need to agree on a roadmap that addresses their conflicting concerns at the European Council meeting in December
Survive and thrive: A European plan to support Ukraine in the long war against Russia
To signal their commitment to Ukraine, Europeans should agree a ‘long-war plan’ of assistance against Russian aggression. This would include a ‘security compact,’ security assurances, and economic and energy support.
Partnership for Enlargement: A new way to integrate Ukraine and the EU’s eastern neighbourhood
Russia’s war on Ukraine means the EU must devise a new approach to its neighbourhood. It should establish a Partnership for Enlargement that offers Ukraine and other states concrete steps towards deeper integration.
Beyond Merkelism: What Europeans expect of post-election Germany
Paradoxically, to fulfil many Europeans’ expectations, Berlin will need to revise the principles of Merkelism that created this trust
Health sovereignty: How to build a resilient European response to pandemics
Europe must improve its early warning systems, supply chain resilience, medical R&D, and cyber security and technology, to act decisively in future emergencies
Divided at the centre: Germany, Poland, and the troubles of the Trump era
Introduction For most Europeans, it is now obvious that the foreign policy of US President Donald Trump threatens the global liberal order. Trump’s hostility towards…
Europe and its discontents: Poland’s collision course with the European Union
If Poland continues to drift away from the EU it will not only diminish its own influence, but also undermine the EU’s internal cohesion
After Tusk: Poland in Europe
Poland needs to reassert itself in Europe
The EU’s silent revolution
More intergovernmentalism, more differentiation
Articles
The long shadow of the populists: Donald Tusk’s first 100 days
It is easier to defeat populists than to unravel the system they have built
Letting Ukraine into the EU will reinforce, not undermine, Europe’s security
Many Europeans fail to realise that EU enlargement is the only way to counter Russia and China – but this week, leaders must act
Poland before the election: How to reverse illiberalism
The 15 October election could lead to a historic experiment: if the opposition wins, it will launch an unprecedented attempt to overcome illiberalism
Rifts and realities: The strained bond between Poland and Ukraine
In the dispute over grain and arms deliveries, Poland’s government is squandering the chance to shift Europe’s centre of gravity to the east
Vision 2030: Four steps towards the new EU enlargement
It is time for the EU to burnish its foreign policy credentials by setting out concrete plans for the next round of enlargement
How the fight against Russian agents in Poland could destroy democracy
Under the guise of fighting “Russian influence”, the Polish government is preparing to attack and disqualify its opponents
East side story: Poland’s new role in the European Union
Poland will need to expand the boundaries of its influence in order to transform its wartime political capital into real leadership in the EU
The final countdown: The EU, Poland, and the rule of law
Faced with financial and political pressures at home, Poland is inching closer to rule-of-law reforms
Image rites: Poland’s new role in Europe
Warsaw is in a uniquely strong position to launch an ambitious initiative for the EU’s eastern neighbourhood. To do this, it will need to use its new image in Europe to good effect.
Rule of three: How unfinished business threatens the EU
Russia’s war on Ukraine has forced the EU to deal with three major problems it had long avoided. The bloc can only shape the global order if it upholds the rule of law at home.
Podcasts
How the Polish elections will change Europe
Mark Leonard welcomes Piotr Buras and Jana Puglierin to discuss Poland’s return to Europe
Spain and Poland at the ballot box: what’s next for Europe?
Mark Leonard welcomes José Ignacio Torreblanca and Piotr Buras to discuss recent developments in Spanish and Polish politics and their impact on Europe
The future of European politics
Mark Leonard welcomes the heads of ECFR’s national offices to discuss key players outside the traditional halls of European power
A battle on two fronts: Poland, Germany, and the rule of law
How has the war in Ukraine affected Polish politics and Poland’s relationship to its neighbours and the EU?
Survive and thrive: A European plan to support Ukraine in the long war against Russia
Mark Leonard is joined by ECFR’s Piotr Buras, Gustav Gressel, Kadri Liik, and Jeremy Shapiro to describe and debate the potential military, security, and economic aspects of the long-war plan
European solidarity and the Russia-Ukraine war
How sustainable is European unity? And what scenarios of solidarity or division can be expected in the next few months?
Out of Order: the Polish Constitutional Court’s challenge to the European Union
What steps can the EU take to defend its legal order and protect the authority of the CJEU?
Anxious allies: European sovereignty after the US election
How much impact does the future US president have on the very concept of European sovereignty? Will the idea and initiatives to build more strategic autonomy in Europe be put back to bed with Joe Biden in the White House?
The EU’s budget and recovery fund deal – a historic moment for Europe?
The over 90-hour European Council summit in Brussels ended with a deal on a €1.82 trillion financial package. What does…
“We are all in this together” – The coronavirus crisis as a collective emotional experience?
Emotions are an increasingly important part of contemporary politics. Strategies based on fear, nostalgia or hope are used by political leaders all over Europe to…
Events
6 Mar
United West, divided from the rest? Come europei, cinesi, indiani, russi ed americani guardano alla guerra
Nell’attuale contesto internazionale, le relazioni dell’Europa con le potenze globali stanno cambiando rapidamente, e la loro evoluzione rappresenta un elemento di analisi ineludibile nel delineare la strategia di politica estera dell’UE
8 Nov
The role of Germany in Europe in times of war: Potential for German-Bulgarian cooperation
We will discuss Germany’s role in Europe and will reflect on how the new European order is viewed in Berlin
28 Apr
Bezpieczeństwo energetyczne Polski i Unii Europejskiej: zmiana paradygmatu
Agresja Rosji na Ukrainę zburzyła podstawy gospodarczych i strategicznych stosunków Unii Europejskiej z Rosją, które do tej pory w dużej mierze opierały się na handlu…
30 Mar
Europe and the refugee crisis: what needs to be done
What instruments does the EU have at its disposal to address the challenges related to the crisis? And what are the lessons learned from the refugee crisis in 2015?
19 Jan
China-Russia – Strategic alignment or alliance in the making?
This panel is part of the annual Japan-Europe Core Group Warsaw 2022 on “The Future of Russia-China Relations – Implications for European and Japanese Foreign Policy
7 Dec
The European Green Deal: A recipe for development or a source of conflict?
The green transition is vital to Europe’s future. Rebuilding economies to achieve climate neutrality is essential not only to avoid a catastrophe but also to…
8 Nov
Migration crisis on the EU Eastern border: how the EU can protect borders and human rights
Since summer 2021, Poland and Lithuania have been confronted with an unprecedented action by the Lukashenko regime, which aims to exert political pressure on both…
15 Oct
Should the EU fear Polexit?
Has Poland already entered the path of ‘Polexit’? What should the EU do to defend its legal space and protect the authority of the CJEU?
28 Sep
Niemcy pod Lupą – edycja specjalna konferencji “Świat pod Lupą”
Zastanowimy się, co era Merkel znaczyła w historii tego kraju i jak dziedzictwo pani kanclerz wpływać będzie na jego dalsze losy
14 Sep
Beyond Merkelism: What do Europeans expect from post-Merkel Germany?
What do European citizens expect from Germany’s next government, after 16 years of Angela Merkel? With little over a week to go until the elections, join a panel of pundits to analyse ECFR’s latest survey of attitudes of 16,000 citizens across 12 EU countries
In the media
In order to achieve economies of scale that would ensure Europe’s economic security and defend its prosperity model,a radical change is required
Piotr Buras on the upcoming challenges for the European Union
This is the paradox: The European Commission is talking about more gradual integration with Ukraine and the single market, but we are talking about the gradual closing of the single market for Ukraine
Piotr Buras on the waning support in Polish domestic politics for Ukraine’s access to the single market
The sources of disagreement between France and Germany lie beyond Tusk’s reach
Piotr Buras comments on the role of Donald Tusk in fixing the Franco-German relationship
The right-wing populist camp will gain votes and play a significant role in the European Parliament
Piotr Buras on a possible shift to the right in the EU elections
The war in Ukraine proved to be a real shock, showing how naked the European king really is
Piotr Buras on the state of European military cooperation