A new transatlantic bargain: An action plan for transformation, not restoration
The Trump years galvanised Europeans’ efforts to strengthen their own sovereignty; they now need to agree concrete offers they can make to the new administration
Experts & Staff
Janka Oertel
Distinguished Policy Fellow
Areas of expertise
Europe-China relations, US-China relations, clean technology competition, geopolitics of emerging technology and supply chains
Languages
German, English, French (conversational), Chinese (fair)
Biography
Janka Oertel is a distinguished policy fellow with the European Power programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations. She leads the DARE* project, a three-year initiative focused on European competitiveness and clean technology transition.
Until late 2025, Oertel rebuilt and led the Asia programme at ECFR for almost six years. Under her leadership, the ECFR Asia programme became the go-to place for analysis and convening on EU-China relations, and for outreach to the Indo-Pacific in Europe.
Before joining ECFR, Oertel was a senior fellow in the Asia programme at the German Marshall Fund of the United States’ Berlin office, where she focused on transatlantic China policy including on emerging technologies, Chinese foreign policy, and security in east Asia. Prior to joining the GMF, she served as a programme director at Körber Foundation’s Berlin office. She was also a visiting fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP Berlin) and worked at United Nations Headquarters, New York, as a Carlo-Schmid fellow. She has published widely on topics related to EU-China relations, US-China relations, Chinese foreign policy, 5G and emerging technologies, clean tech competition and climate cooperation.
She has testified before the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee and the German Bundestag, and is frequently quoted in leading media outlets such as the Financial Times, the New York Times, The Economist, Süddeutsche Zeitung, El Confidencial, Berlingske, and many more. Her book “Ende der China-Illusion. Wie wir mit Pekings Machtanspruch umgehen müssen” was published in August 2023 with Piper in Germany.
Oertel holds a PhD from the University of Jena (Germany). Her dissertation focused on Chinese policies within the United Nations.
Europe’s new transatlantic bargain for Biden’s America
When Biden enters the White House, he will look for a Europe that brings solutions rather than problems. Europeans should show they can be an equal partner & offer him a new transatlantic bargain
With no landslide win for Biden, Beijing benefits
No matter who wins the US election this week, the narrow margin will focus US attention at home, giving China geopolitical room for manoeuvre
Defending Europe’s Economic Sovereignty: new ways to resist economic coercion
The EU should move quickly to consider and adopt a suite of tools to protect and enhance European sovereignty in the geo-economic sphere
The new China consensus: How Europe is growing wary of Beijing
In its remaining months, the German Council presidency could use this momentum to create institutional structures to improve the EU’s capacity to act
Europe’s digital sovereignty: From rulemaker to superpower in the age of US-China rivalry
The EU cannot continue to rely on its regulatory power but must become a tech superpower in its own right. Referees do not win the game
China, Europe, and covid-19 headwinds
China’s attempts to divide Europeans during the crisis, along with its fierce and openly hostile rhetoric targeting the capacity of Western democracy to effectively respond to the health emergency, have served as a wake-up call
It’s complicated: Europe-China relations in a world of superpower competition
Can Europe compete in today’s new geopolitical realities? Does the Union find itself in a technology war with China? And are at least cooperative solutions…
Europe, China, and Hong Kong: Why new red lines will be worth the cost
The business relationship has long dominated Europe-China relations. But the recent developments in Hong Kong show that Beijing’s increasingly aggressive policies should force a rethink
EU-China relations in times of covid-19
Covid-19 has upended life as we know it. While affecting business and politics within Europe, it also brings about a new set of questions with…
Publications
Electric shock: The Chinese threat to Europe’s industrial heartland
The industrial heartland of Germany and central Europe is at risk from the second “China shock”. Here is how decision-makers can save industry and avert social and political strife
The idea of China
China’s ideas could become the country’s next big export. The Idea of China examines Chinese thinking about global order, AI, demographic change, and more – and considers how these ideas could influence the world
Trust and trade-offs: How to manage Europe’s green technology dependence on China
European policymakers need to answer the ‘trust question’ of how far they want Chinese companies involved in green industries such as solar energy, batteries, and electric vehicles
Circuit breakers: Securing Europe’s green energy supply chains
Europeans risk over-dependence on China for the green technologies needed to build the low-carbon economy of the future. They should take steps to reduce their exposure – while recognising they will have to work with Chinese suppliers in some instances
Home advantage: How China’s protected market threatens Europe’s economic power
The EU urgently needs to incorporate the concept and reality of the ‘protected home market advantage’ into its thinking on China
Climate superpowers: How the EU and China can compete and cooperate for a green future
As climate action becomes more material to economic interests, Europe and China will both compete and cooperate with each other, against the backdrop of an overarching systemic rivalry
Promoting European strategic sovereignty in Asia
Europe should upgrade its security activities, and seize the moment to push multilateral institutions up the agenda. But it will be Europe’s connectivity agenda that provides the golden thread running through its foreign policy and its other objectives in the region
A new transatlantic bargain: An action plan for transformation, not restoration
The Trump years galvanised Europeans’ efforts to strengthen their own sovereignty; they now need to agree concrete offers they can make to the new administration
Defending Europe’s Economic Sovereignty: new ways to resist economic coercion
The EU should move quickly to consider and adopt a suite of tools to protect and enhance European sovereignty in the geo-economic sphere
The new China consensus: How Europe is growing wary of Beijing
In its remaining months, the German Council presidency could use this momentum to create institutional structures to improve the EU’s capacity to act
Articles
Band of brothers: Why like-minded powers need to hold the line on China
Like-minded countries are starting to protect themselves from US unpredictability and Chinese dominance by forging new coalitions. This will only work if they limit their solo deals with Beijing
EU-Mercosur deal: Take the win, but change the tune
With the EU-Mercosur deal signed after 25 years of negotiations, free trade advocates in Europe may feel triumphant. But their narrative is no longer convincing. As China undercuts industry worldwide, it’s time to refresh the open market story
Why Europeans should DARE* to make New Year’s resolutions
As 2026 begins with a bang, Europeans are well-advised to reframe de-risking as re-engagement, unleash the single energy market and focus on electrification
Escalate to negotiate: How Europe should respond to Chinese export restrictions
Beijing is turning its rare earth monopoly into a weapon. The EU needs to treat this as the emergency that it is and unleash its anti-coercion shield to bring China to the negotiating table
Carbon copy: How Europe can narrow the economic intelligence gap with China
China is scooping up supply chain information as part of its trade restrictions. Europe lags behind in economic intelligence, but there is a way to start closing this gap with a low-cost, low-bureaucracy, high-impact step
Lethal weapon: Why Europe can’t afford to blink on China’s rare earth blackmail
China’s export restrictions are bringing European factories to the verge of shutting down. Yielding to Chinese pressure today will only invite more sophisticated threats tomorrow; only a united and assertive EU response can stop the cycle of coercion and protect Europe’s industrial core
Escalation in South Asia: Europe’s core interests amid crisis between India and Pakistan
This week, tensions between India and Pakistan have led to direct combat and fatalities. As the confrontation escalates, Europeans will likely have to take clear sides and re-assess the role of Chinese military technology in future wars—which could be much closer to home
Taiwan’s balancing act: Keeping the US in, China out, and domestic technology superior
Amid the global political turmoil, Taipei is aiming to keep Washington onside. But the arrival of the second Trump administration presents a parallel opportunity for Europe and Taiwan to deepen their cooperation in areas of mutual interest
From Brussels with leverage: How the EU is recalibrating its China strategy
By imposing tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, the European Commission has turned a corner on its relations with Beijing. To push back against an emboldened Brussels, Beijing will have to change tactics
Security recall: The risk of Chinese electric vehicles in Europe
The security challenge posed by Chinese electric vehicles is in many ways greater – and trickier to solve – than that of 5G networks. With such cars entering the European market at growing speed, policymakers need to move swiftly
Podcasts
Truce or trap: Decoding the US-China trade pause
Mark Leonard welcomes Janka Oertel to unpack the US-China trade de-escalation and its implications for Europe
Tariffs, tensions, and trade: Trump’s gamble on China
Mark Leonard welcomes Agathe Demarais and Janka Oertel to examine the diverse perspectives on US-China relations and how Europe can navigate this changing geopolitical landscape
Porcupine play: How Taiwan defends its democracy
Mark Leonard welcomes Camille Grand and Janka Oertel to unpack Taiwan’s strategic calculus amid rising global tensions, and Europe’s role in the Indo-Pacific
Europe’s Asian pivot: India and the quest for strategic autonomy
Mark Leonard welcomes Rudra Chowdhury, James Crabtree and Janka Oertel to unpack Europe’s relations with Asia in the age of Donald Trump
Germany’s election results: Continuity or turning point?
On the morning after Germany’s election, Searching for Deutschland hosts Jeremy Cliffe and Jana Puglierin were joined for a live webinar by ECFR colleagues Timo Lochocki and…
Live from the Munich Security Conference: Europe’s wake-up call
In Munich, Mark Leonard welcomes Ulrike Franke, Camille Grand, Janka Oertel and Jana Puglierin to unpack this year’s security conference
The China factor: Compete or double down?
Germany’s industrial model thrived for years thanks to soaring Chinese demand. But the relationship has recently become more contentious. This week, hosts Jeremy Cliffe and Jana…
Germany special: The coalition collapse
Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Cliffe, Janka Oertel, and Jana Puglierin to discuss the collapse of the German government coalition
China’s trade challenges for the European economy
Mark Leonard welcomes Agathe Demarais and Janka Oertel to discuss EU tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and the potential for future economic sanctions
China’s new ideas: People, power, progress
Mark Leonard welcomes Alicja Bachulska and Janka Oertel to discuss their latest book, “The Idea of China.”
Events
9
Dec
Asia
Implications for the UK of Europe’s approach to China and economic security
China now poses a deindustrialisation-level shock to Europe’s economic future. The external impact of Chinese overcapacity, involution, and Beijing’s technological leadership and supply-chain dominance in critical future technologies is presenting an existential threat to Europe’s industrial base. The EU is weighing new measures in response, including stricter investment screening, European preference in procurement, a new…
29
Apr
Asia
The US-China trade war and implications for Europe and the UK
Donald Trump and Xi Jinping are engaged in a high-stakes game of chicken in the emerging trade war. With more than 150% tariffs on Chinese goods and a reciprocal response from Beijing on US imports, economic relations between the two sides have essentially come to a halt. Lack of clarity around the US endgame creates…
European Power
ECFR election insights: Will Germany lead or lag in Europe’s next foreign policy chapter?
Germany’s election results are in—now what? Join the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) for a timely post-election analysis in the early morning after results are in. What does the outcome mean for Germany’s role on the European and global stage? Will the new government take a leadership role in shaping Europe’s foreign policy, or will…
It’s complicated: The Russia-China Axis
This event is part of the German Forum on Security Policy, organised by the Federal Academy for Security Policy (BAKS).
Asia
Green energy and China: How to avoid new dependencies?
Rhodium Group are delighted to invite you to the virtual launch event of our new policy paper “Circuit Breakers: Securing the Green Energy Supply Chain”
11
Mar
Asia
Identifying and countering China’s global digital strategy
NBR, Institut Montaigne (IM), and ECFR partner for a joint virtual event to discuss China’s global digital strategy
Asia
The EU and Japan: Strategic partners in the Indo-Pacific
In collaboration with the Embassy of Japan in Madrid, ECFR has organised a public virtual debate to explore how the EU and the Indo-Pacific can build a strategic alliance and how the EU-Japan relationship can drive this process
European Power
Europe Debates | Should Lithuania expect more European solidarity vis-à-vis China?
This Oxford-style debate is part of ECFR’s Re:shape Global Europe project supported by Stiftung Mercator
Asia
Japanese and EU Indo-Pacific policies after the German and Japanese elections
How will the new administrations in Germany and Japan impact the EU’s and Japanese Indo-Pacific strategy and China policy?
28
Jan
European Power
Construire une souveraineté stratégique européenne ensemble
Dans le cadre de La Fabrique Défense, l’ECFR Paris présentera une table-ronde en personne
In the media
Janka Oertel on Germany’s vice-chancelor and finance minister Klingbeil’s China visit
Janka Oertel and Tobias Gehrke on Europe’s path out of dependence on rare raw materials from China
Janka Oertel on the EU’s sanctions on Russia
Janka Oertel on China’s demonstrations of power
Janka Oertel on China’s view of Trump’s diplomacy in Ukraine