Spain after the elections: the ‘Germany of the South’?
Spain’s election, caught between the euro crisis and Arab revolutions
Experts & Staff
Mark Leonard
Director
Areas of expertise
Geopolitics and Geoeconomics; China; EU-Russia relations; transatlantic relations; EU politics and institutions; public diplomacy and nation branding; UK foreign policy
Languages
English, French, German
Biography
Mark Leonard is co-founder and director of the European Council on Foreign Relations, the first pan-European think–tank. His topics of focus include geopolitics and geoeconomics, China, EU politics and institutions. Leonard is a member of the UK Soft Power Council and the UK Foreign Secretary’s External Foreign Policy Board.
Leonard hosts the weekly podcast “Mark Leonards’s World in 30 Minutes” and writes a syndicated column on global affairs for Project Syndicate. Previously he worked as director of foreign policy at the Centre for European Reform and as director of the Foreign Policy Centre, a think-tank he founded at the age of 24 under the patronage of former British Prime Minister Tony Blair. In the 1990s, Leonard worked for the think-tank Demos where his Britain™ report was credited with launching Cool Britannia. Mark has spent time in Washington, D.C. as a Transatlantic Fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States and as Henry A Kissinger chair in foreign policy and international relations at the US Library of Congress, and in Beijing as a visiting scholar at the Chinese Academy for Social Sciences.
He is a regular speaker and prolific writer and commentator on global issues, the future of Europe, China’s internal politics, and the practice of diplomacy and business in a networked world. His essays have appeared in publications such as Foreign Affairs, the Financial Times, the New York Times, Le Monde, Süddeutsche Zeitung, El Pais, Gazeta Wyborcza, Foreign Policy, the New Statesman, the Daily Telegraph, The Economist, Time, and Newsweek.
As well as writing and commenting frequently in the media on global affairs, Leonard is the author of best-selling books. His first book, Why Europe will run the 21st Century, was published in 2005 and translated into 19 languages. Leonard’s second book, What does China think? was published in 2008 and translated into 15 languages. He has published an edited volume on Connectivity Wars and in September 2021, his latest book on this topic The Age of Unpeace. How Connectivity Causes Conflict was released.
A marginalised Britain makes EU break-up more likely
The actions of Britain's coalition government are making it more likely that we will see the EU disintegrate, leaving behind a saved Eurozone that marginalises all those outside it – including Britain itself.
Why enlargement-lite will not save the Arab Spring
The European Union has a vital role to play in helping consolidate the transitions of the Arab Spring. But first they need to rethink their approach and develop a new foreign policy for the Southern neighbourhood: Enlargement lite will not work.
Europe’s multipolar neighbourhood
The upheavels in North Africa are further evidence that the EU's neighbourhood has fundamentally changed, both to the south and to the east. In response, the EU needs to develop a real foreign policy to deal with this increasingly competitive region.
Why China wants a G3 world
Despite the fashionable talk about BRICS and the G2 of Washington and Beijing, we really now live in a G3 world that combines US military power and consumption, Chinese capital and labour, and European rules and technology.
The New German Question: How Europe can get the Germany it needs
How to help Germany rework its role as the keystone of Europe
We need new rules for a multipolar Europe
The Deauville summit involving Sarkozy, Merkel and Medvedev was always likely to be a non-event, beyond the recognition that Europe is now a multipolar continent. Instead we need a new system – an informal trialogue on European security that would keep the EU united, Russia post-imperial and Turkey European
The spectre of a multipolar Europe
The meeting of Angela Merkel, Dmitri Medvedev and Nicolas Sarkozy at the French seaside resort of Deauville on Monday 18th has the right agenda – European security – but the wrong actors. A trialogue involving the EU, Russia and Turkey would be the best way to rethink security in Europe
European security: The spectre of a multipolar Europe
The EU needs to build a trialogue on security with Russia and Turkey
Stronger than it thinks it is: how Europe should deal with China
The question of how the EU should deal with the world’s rising powers will dominate the informal Gymnich foreign ministers’ meeting and the European Council meeting over the next week. In a memo to European leaders, François Godement and Mark Leonard argue that the financial crisis may have increased Europe’s leverage when it deals with Beijing
Publications
Brexit isn’t working: British voters are ready for a European future
Ten years on from the referendum, the British electorate has moved on from its old divisions and—in a world of crisis—is embracing an ambitious move back towards the European Union
The new right: Anatomy of a global political revolution
The thinkers and ideas of the rising nationalist right merit the political mainstream’s attention. Only by understanding them can it build a resilient counter-project
How Trump is making China great again—and what it means for Europe
A post-Western world is learning to love China, while Europeans are starting to fear America
Trump’s European revolution
A major new ECFR poll shows how, six months in, the US president is reshaping European politics and the continent’s geopolitical identity
Alone in a Trumpian world: The EU and global public opinion after the US elections
Citizens of global powers are upbeat about a second Trump presidency – but this is by no means universal, particularly among traditional US allies
The cross-Channel reset: Trump, Putin, and shifting EU-UK opinion
Voters in both the UK and major EU states are open to compromise. Leaders on both sides of the Channel should use this political space for an ambitious reset
The meaning of sovereignty: Ukrainian and European views of Russia’s war on Ukraine
New research confirms Ukrainians’ determination to fight and Europeans’ steady support for Kyiv. But a major divide lurks beneath this appearance of unity
The idea of China
China’s ideas could become the country’s next big export. The Idea of China examines Chinese thinking about global order, AI, demographic change, and more – and considers how these ideas could influence the world
A new political map: Getting the European Parliament election right
Mainstream parties are hoping to prevent an anticipated far-right surge in this year’s European Parliament election. But the results of ECFR’s latest opinion poll suggest their current strategy could backfire – and what they should do instead
Wars and elections: How European leaders can maintain public support for Ukraine
As Russia’s war on Ukraine approaches its second anniversary, European leaders need to prevent Vladimir Putin from capitalising on war fatigue in the West. To maintain public support for backing Kyiv in this crucial election year, they should make clear that a Russian victory is not peace
Articles
The tragedy of “Westalgia”
Some European leaders seem to think that abasing themselves for Donald Trump’s pleasure is necessary to save NATO and keep the Western alliance alive. But by so desperately clinging to the good old days of the transatlantic relationship, Europe’s leaders are risking more than just their dignity
Beyond Brexit—and back to Europe
Those who follow only intergovernmental negotiations or debates in the media might think that nothing has changed in the decade since the United Kingdom’s voters decided to leave the European Union. Yet new polling finds that large majorities on both sides of the English Channel now support re-engagement
MAGA’s approach to Europe hasn’t changed
Although the speech that Marco Rubio delivered to the Munich Security Conference was softer in tone than vice-president J.D. Vance’s in 2025, the Europe he celebrated was that of the ethno-nationalist far right. Europe is on its own, and it must start acting like it
Where does Europe go from here?
Beyond showcasing Donald Trump’s “neo-royalist” style of politics, this year’s annual gathering of the global elite in Davos revealed deeper, structural changes that will shape political and business leaders’ decision-making for years to come. Europeans, in particular, must absorb the right lessons
Arctic hold‘em: Ten European cards in Greenland
Europeans have real leverage in the face of Donald Trump’s threats towards Greenland—and time on their side. They must use it to raise the prospective costs of annexation
2026: The year we stop pretending it’s just a phase
Ten key foreign policy trends for the year ahead
Decision time for Europe
Given the Trump administration’s recent statements and policy pronouncements, European leaders no longer have any excuse for failing to map out their own long-term security strategy. If they can get their act together on ending the Ukraine war, they will gain a much stronger position on other key fronts, too
How progressives can win on immigration
For rudderless centre-left parties, the debate around asylum and immigration should be seen not as a necessary evil, but as a political opportunity. By anchoring tougher enforcement in an authentic social-democratic agenda, the left can show that it has better solutions than the far right
What Chinese leaders really think of Trump
According to Chinese academics, economists and retired military officers, the country’s leaders are not losing any sleep over Donald Trump’s America First agenda. In fact, as they see it, the US president is ushering in a world that Chinese strategists have long been preparing for
Britain and Europe are changing together
The nuclear pact recently signed by Emmanuel Macron and Keir Starmer reflects how an emerging post-liberal Europe is taking the form of a defence community. Britain can help shape the continent’s new security order, so long as it banishes the Brexit mindset
Specials
The Power Atlas
Power is now defined by control over flows of people, goods, money, and data, and via the connections they establish. Only states that see the new map of geopolitical power clearly will be able to control the modern world
What Europeans really want: Five myths debunked
New ECFR/YouGov research reveals huge fluidity in current voting intentions: 70 percent of Europeans certain to vote are yet to make their choice. Nearly 100m swing voters are up for grabs
Podcasts
Can a ceasefire survive Israel’s election?
Mark Leonard welcomes Hugh Lovatt to discuss the prospects for a Gaza ceasefire, escalating settler violence in the West Bank and how Israel’s upcoming general election could shape the future of the conflict
Germany’s second China shock
Mark Leonard welcomes Janka Oertel and Andrew Small to discuss how China’s industrial rise is shaking Germany—and Europe’s—economic foundations
Political crisis in Germany
Mark Leonard welcomes Jörg Lau and Jana Puglierin to discuss Germany’s deepening political crisis, the rise of the AfD and how the country’s regional elections could impact Europe’s largest democracy
Latin America’s new imaginaries
Mark Leonard welcomes Adriana Abdenur and Jorge Castañeda to discuss how China is reshaping the political imagination of Latin America
The China-native generation
Mark Leonard welcomes Loubna El Amine and Cobus van Staden to explore how younger generations in Africa and the Middle East are shaping perceptions of China, the West and the future
European defence after the NATO summit
Mark Leonard welcomes Camille Grand and Marta Prochwicz Jazowska to discuss last week’s NATO summit and how Europe can prepare for a future in which American security guarantees are no longer assured
Marine Le Pen’s comeback
Mark Leonard welcomes Célia Belin and Jeremy Cliffe to discuss Marine Le Pen’s return to the French presidential race
The China challenge
Mark Leonard welcomes Mike Kuiken and Randy Schriver to examine the evolving US-China relationship and what it means for Europe
British politics ten years after Brexit
Mark Leonard welcomes Marcus Roberts to discuss the legacy of Brexit and the latest developments in British politics
Peace in the Middle East
Julien Barnes-Dacey welcomes Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud to discuss how the recently inked US-Iran deal could deliver a more stable regional order
Events
8
Jun
EU and UK attitudes towards a renewed partnership on 10th anniversary of Brexit
In a private discussion on EU and UK attitudes towards a renewed partnership, a decade after the referendum, Mark Leonard and Marcus Roberts will present some embargoed data from ECFR and Mandate looking at views in the UK but also across Europe on different modalities of the EU-UK relationship going forward…
18
May
Global Strategy Lab: the UK’s geopolitical choices and trade-offs
Reflecting on the findings from our previous events and drawing on Mark Leonard’s latest IPPR paper, Britain’s strategy for a decade of danger: Our nation, our continent, our world, the discussion will examine competing visions for Britain’s role in the world—from renewed reliance on the US, to a more globally diversified approach, to a strategic pivot…
30
Apr
United States
What is Donald Trump thinking? A Private briefing on US foreign policy
The special relationship has rarely felt so lacking in speciality. Donald Trump imposes tariffs at a whim, starts wars of choice without consultation, demands UK military participation in them, and then threatens abandonment if he doesn’t get it; some days all before lunch. All this upset has caused many in the UK and beyond to…
20
Apr
Surviving Chaos: European options in a world of un-order
The event will explore recent developments in the international landscape and reflect on how Europeans can respond to an evolving global context. Mark Leonard will also present the main findings from his upcoming book ‘Surviving Chaos: Geopolitics When the Rules Fail‘. The discussion is organised in partnership with the Delegation of the…
23
Mar
European Power
The New Right: Anatomy of a Global Revolution
As European and German politics are being reshaped by electoral volatility, fragmented party systems, and the continued rise of populist forces, we are delighted to invite you to a public debate on “The New Right: Anatomy of a Global Revolution.” In the aftermath of the important regional elections in Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate,…
12
Mar
Discussion on China and the US
While the war with Iran continues to escalate, Donald Trump is still set to visit China with which the stakes extend from tariffs and intensifying geopolitical rivalry. Under its latest 5-year plan, Beijing is doubling down on a centralised, export-dominated system that will intensify competition with both the US and Europe. Trump and Xi…
13
Feb
United States
A conversation on the direction of travel of U.S. national security policy
Over the past year, the trajectory of U.S. national security policy has raised sharp questions about strategic clarity, prioritization, and the balance between restraint and intervention. Candidate Donald Trump famously campaigned on an “America First” approach: reducing U.S. involvement overseas, withdrawing from forever wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, and emphasizing…
10
Feb
The New Right: Understanding its legitimacy and policy agenda
As the rise of the new right and “MAGA-ization” of politics is having a greater impact on the UK and Europe, this event will aim to discuss these new movements – looking at their critique of the status-quo, their electoral base, policy agenda and organising and communication methods. Having spent the past year talking to…
European Power
The World in 2026: Global Public Opinion One Year into the Second Trump Presidency
How do publics around the world view geopolitics one year into the second Trump presidency? ECFR’s 2024 polling revealed that many middle-power societies welcomed Trump’s return to the White House. Yet twelve months on, perceptions of power, polarity, and alignment have shifted towards a multipolar, post-Western world. On the day of the launch of ECFR’s fourth Global Public Opinion Survey, this webinar will reveal how publics across 21 countries including China, India, Turkey,…
9
Dec
Asia
Implications for the UK of Europe’s approach to China and economic security
China now poses a deindustrialisation-level shock to Europe’s economic future. The external impact of Chinese overcapacity, involution, and Beijing’s technological leadership and supply-chain dominance in critical future technologies is presenting an existential threat to Europe’s industrial base. The EU is weighing new measures in response, including stricter investment screening, European preference in procurement, a…
In the media
Mark Leonard on the post-American world
Mark Leonard on adapting to a changing post-American global order
Mark Leonard on the future of world order beyond US dominance
Mark Leonard on EU-UK relations
The Commentary The Tragedy of “Westalgia” mentioned by Il Foglio