Think again: European decline
Although it may seem that Europe is down and out as it struggles with multiple crises, things are in fact far, far better than they appear on the surface.
Experts & Staff
Mark Leonard
Director
Areas of expertise
Geopolitics and Geoeconomics; China; EU-Russia relations; transatlantic relations; EU politics and institutions; public diplomacy and nation branding; UK foreign policy
Languages
English, French, German
Biography
Mark Leonard is co-founder and director of the European Council on Foreign Relations, the first pan-European think–tank. His topics of focus include geopolitics and geoeconomics, China, EU politics and institutions. Leonard is a member of the UK Soft Power Council and the UK Foreign Secretary’s External Foreign Policy Board.
Leonard hosts the weekly podcast “Mark Leonards’s World in 30 Minutes” and writes a syndicated column on global affairs for Project Syndicate. Previously he worked as director of foreign policy at the Centre for European Reform and as director of the Foreign Policy Centre, a think-tank he founded at the age of 24 under the patronage of former British Prime Minister Tony Blair. In the 1990s, Leonard worked for the think-tank Demos where his Britain™ report was credited with launching Cool Britannia. Mark has spent time in Washington, D.C. as a Transatlantic Fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States and as Henry A Kissinger chair in foreign policy and international relations at the US Library of Congress, and in Beijing as a visiting scholar at the Chinese Academy for Social Sciences.
He is a regular speaker and prolific writer and commentator on global issues, the future of Europe, China’s internal politics, and the practice of diplomacy and business in a networked world. His essays have appeared in publications such as Foreign Affairs, the Financial Times, the New York Times, Le Monde, Süddeutsche Zeitung, El Pais, Gazeta Wyborcza, Foreign Policy, the New Statesman, the Daily Telegraph, The Economist, Time, and Newsweek.
As well as writing and commenting frequently in the media on global affairs, Leonard is the author of best-selling books. His first book, Why Europe will run the 21st Century, was published in 2005 and translated into 19 languages. Leonard’s second book, What does China think? was published in 2008 and translated into 15 languages. He has published an edited volume on Connectivity Wars and in September 2021, his latest book on this topic The Age of Unpeace. How Connectivity Causes Conflict was released.
The remarkable rise of continental Euroscepticism
A new ECFR analysis shows that trust in the EU has plummeted across the continent. Both southern debtors and northern creditors feel like they are victims.
Revolt of the technocrats
Does the launch of a new Eurosceptic party in Germany suggest there is fertile ground for a real alternative ahead of elections later this year, despite Merkel's refusal to countenance change?
The Europeanisation of America
The two giant economies – Europe and the US – are no longer as different as they once were. Austerity and the prospect of decline have brought them back together.
The State of the Union and the end of persuasion
With his State of the Union address, President Obama combined the two most powerful tactics of modern politics – big speeches and big data – to spur political action. Are we witnessing a reinvention of representative democracy?
Cameron’s backward looking speech
Cameron's EU speech is a bad miscalculation that underestimates how much the world has changed, and how much Britain needs Europe if it is to retain an influential voice in global affairs.
In 2013, the great global unraveling
The main theme of 2013 is likely to be the unraveling of the global economy and supporting political integration.
New world, same old Israel
Benjamin Netanyahu is trying to show that nothing in Israel's security situation has changed. But in the wake of the Arab Uprising the Middle East is a different place and Israel needs to reconsider its whole strategy.
The view from the capitals: the EU budget summit
On Thursday EU leaders will meet in Brussels to discuss the EU budget for the next seven years. ECFR experts in Spain, the UK, Bulgaria, Denmark, France, Germany and Italy tell us what to expect.
Publications
The new right: Anatomy of a global political revolution
The thinkers and ideas of the rising nationalist right merit the political mainstream’s attention. Only by understanding them can it build a resilient counter-project
How Trump is making China great again—and what it means for Europe
A post-Western world is learning to love China, while Europeans are starting to fear America
Trump’s European revolution
A major new ECFR poll shows how, six months in, the US president is reshaping European politics and the continent’s geopolitical identity
Alone in a Trumpian world: The EU and global public opinion after the US elections
Citizens of global powers are upbeat about a second Trump presidency – but this is by no means universal, particularly among traditional US allies
The cross-Channel reset: Trump, Putin, and shifting EU-UK opinion
Voters in both the UK and major EU states are open to compromise. Leaders on both sides of the Channel should use this political space for an ambitious reset
The meaning of sovereignty: Ukrainian and European views of Russia’s war on Ukraine
New research confirms Ukrainians’ determination to fight and Europeans’ steady support for Kyiv. But a major divide lurks beneath this appearance of unity
The idea of China
China’s ideas could become the country’s next big export. The Idea of China examines Chinese thinking about global order, AI, demographic change, and more – and considers how these ideas could influence the world
A new political map: Getting the European Parliament election right
Mainstream parties are hoping to prevent an anticipated far-right surge in this year’s European Parliament election. But the results of ECFR’s latest opinion poll suggest their current strategy could backfire – and what they should do instead
Wars and elections: How European leaders can maintain public support for Ukraine
As Russia’s war on Ukraine approaches its second anniversary, European leaders need to prevent Vladimir Putin from capitalising on war fatigue in the West. To maintain public support for backing Kyiv in this crucial election year, they should make clear that a Russian victory is not peace
A crisis of one’s own: The politics of trauma in Europe’s election year
European politics is divided between ‘crisis tribes,’ formed from different traumas. Climate and migration are set to be especially influential in this year’s European Parliament election
Articles
Where does Europe go from here?
Beyond showcasing Donald Trump’s “neo-royalist” style of politics, this year’s annual gathering of the global elite in Davos revealed deeper, structural changes that will shape political and business leaders’ decision-making for years to come. Europeans, in particular, must absorb the right lessons
Arctic hold‘em: Ten European cards in Greenland
Europeans have real leverage in the face of Donald Trump’s threats towards Greenland—and time on their side. They must use it to raise the prospective costs of annexation
2026: The year we stop pretending it’s just a phase
Ten key foreign policy trends for the year ahead
Decision time for Europe
Given the Trump administration’s recent statements and policy pronouncements, European leaders no longer have any excuse for failing to map out their own long-term security strategy. If they can get their act together on ending the Ukraine war, they will gain a much stronger position on other key fronts, too
How progressives can win on immigration
For rudderless centre-left parties, the debate around asylum and immigration should be seen not as a necessary evil, but as a political opportunity. By anchoring tougher enforcement in an authentic social-democratic agenda, the left can show that it has better solutions than the far right
What Chinese leaders really think of Trump
According to Chinese academics, economists and retired military officers, the country’s leaders are not losing any sleep over Donald Trump’s America First agenda. In fact, as they see it, the US president is ushering in a world that Chinese strategists have long been preparing for
Britain and Europe are changing together
The nuclear pact recently signed by Emmanuel Macron and Keir Starmer reflects how an emerging post-liberal Europe is taking the form of a defence community. Britain can help shape the continent’s new security order, so long as it banishes the Brexit mindset
Europe after the end of the liberal international order
As Europeans rearm to confront Russian aggression, they also need to figure out how to survive in the age of “unpeace” that Donald Trump and other strongmen are ushering in. The old interdependencies that liberals took for granted no longer ensure peace, prosperity or stability
Europe’s independence day
Incoming German chancellor Friedrich Merz is an unlikely candidate to lead a decisive break with the US. But an erstwhile über-Atlanticist and fiscal conservative might be the only German politician who can credibly bury the country’s economically disastrous “debt brake” and pave the way for a truly independent Europe
A cold front: Denmark’s response to Trump’s desire for Greenland
Trump’s obsession with buying Greenland has turned the island into a geopolitical flashpoint, leaving Europeans uneasy and Denmark navigating choppy waters over the island’s political future
Specials
The Power Atlas
Power is now defined by control over flows of people, goods, money, and data, and via the connections they establish. Only states that see the new map of geopolitical power clearly will be able to control the modern world
What Europeans really want: Five myths debunked
New ECFR/YouGov research reveals huge fluidity in current voting intentions: 70 percent of Europeans certain to vote are yet to make their choice. Nearly 100m swing voters are up for grabs
Podcasts
Indignity with Lea Ypi
Mark Leonard welcomes Lea Ypi to discuss her latest book on indignity—and how lessons from the past can help the left counter the new right
Europe-Africa relations in 2026
Mark Leonard welcomes Nathalie Delapalme, Carlos Lopes and Alex Vines to discover the pathways and bottlenecks facing the Europe-Africa relationship
The EU-India mega-deal
Mark Leonard welcomes James Crabtree to unpack the landmark EU-India trade deal
Live from Davos with Alexander Stubb
In this episode, Mark Leonard sits down with Finnish president, Alexander Stubb, in Davos for a conversation about Donald Trump’s view of Ukraine, Greenland, the world and Europe’s place in it. They explore the clash between advocates of…
Will Trump bomb Iran?
Mark Leonard and Ellie Geranmayeh discuss the ongoing protests in Iran and the chance of US intervention
The world in 2026
Mark Leonard welcomes Julien Barnes-Dacey, Jana Kobzová, Andrew Small and Alex Vines to discuss upcoming political changes in 2026
Trump attacks Venezuela
Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Shapiro and Nacho Torreblanca to discuss what Donald Trump’s capture of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro means for the world
Predictions and reckonings: From 2025 to 2026
Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Shapiro to look back at the year that was and ahead to what 2026 might bring
Made in China: How Europe can tackle economic coercion
Mark Leonard welcomes Tobias Gehrke and Andrew Small to discuss how Europeans can combat varieties of Chinese economic coercion
After Doha: What’s next for the Arab world?
Mark Leonard welcomes Ellie Geranmayeh and Hugh Lovatt, fresh from the Doha Forum, to unravel the geopolitical changes and diplomatic efforts shaping Middle Eastern politics
Events
European Power
The World in 2026: Global Public Opinion One Year into the Second Trump Presidency
How do publics around the world view geopolitics one year into the second Trump presidency? ECFR’s 2024 polling revealed that many middle-power societies welcomed Trump’s return to the White House. Yet twelve months on, perceptions of power, polarity, and alignment have shifted towards a multipolar, post-Western world. On the day of the launch of ECFR’s fourth Global Public Opinion Survey, this webinar will reveal how publics across 21 countries including China, India, Turkey, Russia, the…
9
Dec
Asia
Implications for the UK of Europe’s approach to China and economic security
China now poses a deindustrialisation-level shock to Europe’s economic future. The external impact of Chinese overcapacity, involution, and Beijing’s technological leadership and supply-chain dominance in critical future technologies is presenting an existential threat to Europe’s industrial base. The EU is weighing new measures in response, including stricter investment screening, European preference in procurement, a new…
12
May
European Power
The EU-UK summit in the context of Trump 2.0
The much-anticipated EU-UK summit on 19 May, expected to include a defense pact, will be an important step in the reset between London and Brussels, with the conflict in Ukraine having been a powerful vehicule for a rapprochment. At the same time, the UK is desperate to maintain its ‘special relationship’ with the US, to also best…
29
Apr
Asia
The US-China trade war and implications for Europe and the UK
Donald Trump and Xi Jinping are engaged in a high-stakes game of chicken in the emerging trade war. With more than 150% tariffs on Chinese goods and a reciprocal response from Beijing on US imports, economic relations between the two sides have essentially come to a halt. Lack of clarity around the US endgame creates…
10
Feb
European Power
The return of President Trump and its implications for the UK and for Europe
Most people in the broader world think President Trump will not just be good for America but that he will bring peace to Ukraine and the Middle East and reduce tensions in US-China relations. Are they right? What do his first few days in office tell us about his vision of the world and foreign policy…
European Power
World views on a second Trump presidency: Alliances, adversaries, and opportunities
As the world prepares for a second Trump presidency and its transformative impact on the global order, Europe faces an urgent need to not only reassess its transatlantic ties but also to rethink engagement with other powers on its path to strategic interdependence. This event which will explore the findings of public opinion polling conducted…
10
Dec
United States
How to cope with Trump 2.0: Ukraine, Nato, China and trade wars
The result of the US election is sending shock waves across the world and Europeans, including the UK, are trying to figure out how it will impact them and what are the best ways to protect their interests. Meanwhile, the campaign for the German elections is in full swing and the outcome will impact Europe’s…
22
Nov
Asia
China’s views in today’s changing global order
With increased US-China competition likely to shape Trump’s second term, significant attention in Washington is focused on the primacists, prioritisers and restrainers vying to shape the incoming administration’s China policy. But this focus on the US often neglects the perspectives and debates within China itself. To help us understand these internal discussions, Mark Leonard and Alicja Bachulska…
16
Sep
United States
American Foreign Policy after the Elections
As discussions intensify on both sides of the Atlantic about the implications of a Trump 2.0 presidency, European leaders are now having to confront a second big unknown in the form of Kamala Harris. How would Trump 2.0 differ from Trump 1.0? Would a President Harris continue Biden’s foreign policy or forge her own path?…
United States
Transatlantic Public Opinion on the War in Ukraine
In celebration of the opening of the ECFR Washington office, this public panel will look at the state of public opinion on the war in Ukraine from both sides of the Atlantic in the run up to the US presidential and European parliamentary elections. As the war in Ukraine has passed its second anniversary, two…
In the media
Mark Leonard, Timothy Garton Ash and Ivan Krastev on the polling results showing a shift in the Tureky’s view of the US as an ally
Mark Leonard, Timothy Garton Ash and Ivan Krastev on the polling results showing a shift in the EU’s view of America as an ally
Mark Leonard, Timothy Garton Ash and Ivan Krastev on the polling results showing a shift in the EU’s view of America and China
Mark Leonard on the emergence and the rhetoric of the New Right in Europe
Mark Leonard on the future of Europe in the Trump era