Mark Leonard
Director
Areas of expertise
Geopolitics and Geoeconomics; China; EU-Russia relations; transatlantic relations; EU politics and institutions; public diplomacy and nation branding; UK foreign policy
Languages
English, French, German
Biography
Mark Leonard is co-founder and director of the European Council on Foreign Relations, the first pan-European think–tank. He is also the current Henry A Kissinger chair in foreign policy and international relations at the US Library of Congress, Washington DC. His topics of focus include geopolitics and geoeconomics, China, EU politics and institutions.
Leonard hosts the weekly podcast “Mark Leonards’s World in 30 Minutes” and writes a syndicated column on global affairs for Project Syndicate. Previously he worked as director of foreign policy at the Centre for European Reform and as director of the Foreign Policy Centre, a think-tank he founded at the age of 24 under the patronage of former British Prime Minister Tony Blair. In the 1990s, Leonard worked for the think-tank Demos where his Britain™ report was credited with launching Cool Britannia. Mark has spent time in Washington, D.C. as a Transatlantic Fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, and in Beijing as a visiting scholar at the Chinese Academy for Social Sciences.
He was Chairman of the World Economic Forum’s Global Agenda Council on Geoeconomics until 2016.
Honoured as a “Young Global Leader” of the World Economic Forum, he spends a lot of time helping governments, companies, and international organisations make sense of the big geo-political trends of the twenty-first century. He is a regular speaker and prolific writer and commentator on global issues, the future of Europe, China’s internal politics, and the practice of diplomacy and business in a networked world. His essays have appeared in publications such as Foreign Affairs, the Financial Times, the New York Times, Le Monde, Süddeutsche Zeitung, El Pais, Gazeta Wyborcza, Foreign Policy, the New Statesman, the Daily Telegraph, The Economist, Time, and Newsweek.
As well as writing and commenting frequently in the media on global affairs, Leonard is the author of best-selling books. His first book, Why Europe will run the 21st Century, was published in 2005 and translated into 19 languages. Leonard’s second book, What does China think? was published in 2008 and translated into 15 languages. He has published an edited volume on Connectivity Wars and in September 2021, his latest book on this topic The Age of Unpeace. How Connectivity Causes Conflict was released.
In:Sight China with Pan Chengxin
Mark Leonard and Pan Chengxin explore quantum relational theory and its application to world politics
The crisis of democratic capitalism with Martin Wolf
Mark Leonard welcomes Martin Wolf to discuss his latest book “The crisis of democratic capitalism”
Mob diplomacy
To understand today’s geopolitical ructions, one must look beyond major powers’ governments and top strategists. As the recent Chinese balloon saga showed, public opinion is increasingly in the driver’s seat, and it is steering international relations away from open, honest dialogue
United West, divided from the rest: Global public opinion one year into Russia’s war on Ukraine
Mark Leonard, Timothy Garton Ash, and Ivan Krastev discuss the main findings of ECFR’s latest opinion poll
United West, divided from the rest: Global public opinion one year into Russia’s war on Ukraine
New polling for ECFR reveals the West is consolidating – while facing an increasingly post-Western world, in which powers such as India and Turkiye are readier than ever to act independently
Live from the Munich Security Conference: Where is world politics turning?
Mark Leonard reports live from the Munich Security Conference
How Putin created the most threatening regime in the world – with Michael Thumann
Mark Leonard invited Michael Thumann to talk about his new book “Revenge: How Putin created the most threatening regime in the world”
Agathe Demarais on sanctions as a foreign policy tool
Mark Leonard talks with Agathe Demarais about how sanctions work and how they can be truly effective
The Leopards are free!
Mark Leonard, Camille Grand, Gustav Gressel, Jana Puglierin, and Jeremy Shapiro discuss what the Leopard 2 decision means for the war in Ukraine
Publications
A new political map: Getting the European Parliament election right
Mainstream parties are hoping to prevent an anticipated far-right surge in this year’s European Parliament election. But the results of ECFR’s latest opinion poll suggest their current strategy could backfire – and what they should do instead
Wars and elections: How European leaders can maintain public support for Ukraine
As Russia’s war on Ukraine approaches its second anniversary, European leaders need to prevent Vladimir Putin from capitalising on war fatigue in the West. To maintain public support for backing Kyiv in this crucial election year, they should make clear that a Russian victory is not peace
A crisis of one’s own: The politics of trauma in Europe’s election year
European politics is divided between ‘crisis tribes,’ formed from different traumas. Climate and migration are set to be especially influential in this year’s European Parliament election
Living in an à la carte world: What European policymakers should learn from global public opinion
A new global opinion poll for ECFR reveals that many people outside the West want Europe and the US in their lives for all they have to offer – but that does not translate into full political alignment. People instead prefer an a la carte arrangement, in which their governments pragmatically select their partners depending on the matter at hand
Strategic interdependence: Europe’s new approach in a world of middle powers
Middle powers are shaping a fragmented world for which Europe is ill prepared. To protect its interests and values, the EU needs a foreign policy strategy that emphasises its wide range of interdependencies
China and Ukraine: The Chinese debate about Russia’s war and its meaning for the world
Chinese thinkers are drawing four key lessons from Russia’s war on Ukraine, informing their views on: America, Russia, Taiwan, and economic interdependence with the West
Fragile unity: Why Europeans are coming together on Ukraine (and what might drive them apart)
Recent polling for ECFR suggests that Europeans have come closer together in their support for Ukraine. But the factors driving this unity are fragile, contingent, and may not last
United West, divided from the rest: Global public opinion one year into Russia’s war on Ukraine
New polling for ECFR reveals the West is consolidating – while facing an increasingly post-Western world, in which powers such as India and Turkiye are readier than ever to act independently
Peace versus Justice: The coming European split over the war in Ukraine
New ECFR research reveals that Europeans are split about the long-term goals of the war in Ukraine. Unless political leaders find a new language to bridge the gap between emerging “Peace” and “Justice” camps, Europe could become polarised between – and within – countries.
The crisis of European security: What Europeans think about the war in Ukraine
Europeans are united around three key ideas about the war in Ukraine. The crisis will likely test their readiness to defend the European security order.
Articles
The Trump effect takes Europe
If disaster can be averted in this year’s US presidential election, a second-term Biden administration will be able to count on a much better partner in Europe, owing to the mobilising effect of Donald Trump’s candidacy. European leaders are finally realising that they urgently need to get their act together
Sunset of the economists
Two decades ago, China’s reformist economists walked the halls of power and dictated policy. Now, they have been sidelined in favour of a new priority: national security. What happened?
Has the ‘polycrisis’ overwhelmed us?
Today’s global crises are not only competing for policymakers’ finite attention, they are increasingly feeding one another in unpredictable ways. Add the uncertainty around this year’s high-stakes elections in the US and elsewhere, and you have a recipe for a Davos meeting defined by angst and paralysis
2024: The year we embrace predictable surprise
Ten predictions for the foreign policy trends of 2024, and a little bonus
Europe needs a new Ukraine strategy
The European Union’s decision to start accession talks with Ukraine represents a symbolic victory rather than a practical one. With Ukraine struggling to secure crucial aid, and its counter-offensive failing to achieve its objectives, it is time to redefine what constitutes a Ukrainian victory and a Russian defeat
Polywar and polyamorous geopolitics
US President Joe Biden’s largely successful response to Russia’s war against Ukraine reflects his vision of the world as a bloc of democracies facing off against revisionist autocracies. But there is growing evidence that this is a minority view, even among some of America’s closest allies
The global consequences of the Israel-Hamas war
The impact of the Israel-Hamas war will reverberate around the world, with consequences for the Middle East, Europe, China, and the United States. While the specific challenges vary, none has an interest in drawing out or widening the conflict
The geopolitics of EU enlargement
The debate surrounding the EU’s potential expansion is no longer really about Ukraine and the Western Balkans. Enlargement is now an existential question with far-reaching implications for the EU and its ability to remain a prominent player in a rapidly changing global environment
This cold war is different
Contrary to how it may appear to many, not least in the US, the new cold war seems to be based not on the old logic of polarisation, but on a new logic of fragmentation. Judging by the growth of the BRICS group of major emerging economies, there is no shortage of countries that find that new logic enticing
The West’s Chinese crossroads
Against the backdrop of the US-China rivalry, it is tempting to ignore recent strategy changes by smaller players like Canada and Hungary. But these two countries offer radically different models for other countries to consider as they navigate an increasingly fraught geopolitical terrain
Specials
The Power Atlas
Power is now defined by control over flows of people, goods, money, and data, and via the connections they establish. Only states that see the new map of geopolitical power clearly will be able to control the modern world.
What Europeans really want: Five myths debunked
New ECFR/YouGov research reveals huge fluidity in current voting intentions: 70 percent of Europeans certain to vote are yet to make their choice. Nearly 100m swing voters are up for grabs.
Podcasts
The role of international law and justice in a fragmented world
The wars in Ukraine and Gaza have led questions of international law and justice to filter into everyday discourse. Both conflicts are deeply rooted in…
Under fire: Unpacking Germany’s defence policy drama
Mark Leonard welcomes Ulrike Franke and Jana Puglierin to discuss the recent turmoil surrounding Germany’s defence policy
De-risking and its impact on the global economy
Mark Leonard welcomes Agathe Demarais and Stephen Adams to discuss de-risking and its impact on Europe and the global economy
The future of the war in Gaza
Mark Leonard welcomes Hugh Lovatt, Julien Barnes-Dacey, and Jeremy Shapiro to discuss the current situation in Gaza and the possible futures of the war
Ukraine’s future in NATO
Mark Leonard welcomes Ivan Krastev to discuss how NATO membership can help Ukraine negotiate a durable peace
Two long years of war in Ukraine
Mark Leonard welcomes Gustav Gressel and Jeremy Shapiro to understand what factors will shape a third year of war in Ukraine
How Europe can prepare for America’s withdrawal
At the Munich Security Conference, Mark Leonard welcomes Arancha González Laya, Camille Grand and Jana Puglierin to understand how Europeans can prepare for a second Trump presidency
A life in the American century
Mark Leonard welcomes Joseph Nye to discuss his new book “A Life in the American Century”
A new defence strategy for Europe
Mark Leonard welcomes Camille Grand to discuss the future of European defence
The future of the Red Sea
Mark Leonard welcomes Cinzia Bianco and Theodore Murphy to discuss the crisis in the Red Sea and its escalation potential
Events
Transatlantic Public Opinion on the War in Ukraine
In celebration of the opening of the ECFR Washington office, this public panel will look at the state of public opinion on the war in…
New paperback released – The Age of Unpeace: How Connectivity Causes Conflict
Mark Leonard will launch his newly released paperback edition of his book – The Age of Unpeace: How Connectivity Causes Conflict (Penguin) with a brand-new essay on the war in Ukraine and its implications for geopolitics
The birth of geopolitical Europe: In conversation with Josep Borrell
With the EU’s High Representative as our honoured guest, the panel will explore the birth of a geopolitical Europe and the new dimensions of European power with a focus on the tech, economic, and security terrains
The EU and Japan: Strategic partners in the Indo-Pacific
In collaboration with the Embassy of Japan in Madrid, ECFR has organised a public virtual debate to explore how the EU and the Indo-Pacific can build a strategic alliance and how the EU-Japan relationship can drive this process
Transatlantic relations after President Joe Biden’s first 100 days in office
How central is the EU to the US and its interests in Europe? And how does the public in European countries view Biden’s America?
European Power in a Biden Era: what role for France and Germany?
ECFR’s latest polling finds that Europeans celebrated Joe Biden’s victory but are sceptical that we will see a global resurgence of US power and…
The Geopolitics of the Green Deal
How to manage the geopolitical aspects of the European Green Deal and lead climate change efforts globally
THINKING BIG WITH Anne-Marie Slaughter
From climate, digital or security – what structures for global cooperation will emerge in a post-Merkel era and Biden presidency?
The crisis of American power: How Europeans see Biden’s America
The event will launch an exciting new report by Ivan Krastev and Mark Leonard, based on public opinion polling in 11 countries
Sovereign Europe, hostile world: In conversation with Josep Borrell, HRVP
The EU’s High Representative, Josep Borrell, and Mark Leonard discussed why strategic autonomy matters