European security: The spectre of a multipolar Europe
The EU needs to build a trialogue on security with Russia and Turkey
Experts & Staff
Mark Leonard
Director
Areas of expertise
Geopolitics and Geoeconomics; China; EU-Russia relations; transatlantic relations; EU politics and institutions; public diplomacy and nation branding; UK foreign policy
Languages
English, French, German
Biography
Mark Leonard is co-founder and director of the European Council on Foreign Relations, the first pan-European think–tank. He is also the current Henry A Kissinger chair in foreign policy and international relations at the US Library of Congress, Washington DC. His topics of focus include geopolitics and geoeconomics, China, EU politics and institutions.
Leonard hosts the weekly podcast “Mark Leonards’s World in 30 Minutes” and writes a syndicated column on global affairs for Project Syndicate. Previously he worked as director of foreign policy at the Centre for European Reform and as director of the Foreign Policy Centre, a think-tank he founded at the age of 24 under the patronage of former British Prime Minister Tony Blair. In the 1990s, Leonard worked for the think-tank Demos where his Britain™ report was credited with launching Cool Britannia. Mark has spent time in Washington, D.C. as a Transatlantic Fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, and in Beijing as a visiting scholar at the Chinese Academy for Social Sciences.
He was Chairman of the World Economic Forum’s Global Agenda Council on Geoeconomics until 2016.
Honoured as a “Young Global Leader” of the World Economic Forum, he spends a lot of time helping governments, companies, and international organisations make sense of the big geo-political trends of the twenty-first century. He is a regular speaker and prolific writer and commentator on global issues, the future of Europe, China’s internal politics, and the practice of diplomacy and business in a networked world. His essays have appeared in publications such as Foreign Affairs, the Financial Times, the New York Times, Le Monde, Süddeutsche Zeitung, El Pais, Gazeta Wyborcza, Foreign Policy, the New Statesman, the Daily Telegraph, The Economist, Time, and Newsweek.
As well as writing and commenting frequently in the media on global affairs, Leonard is the author of best-selling books. His first book, Why Europe will run the 21st Century, was published in 2005 and translated into 19 languages. Leonard’s second book, What does China think? was published in 2008 and translated into 15 languages. He has published an edited volume on Connectivity Wars and in September 2021, his latest book on this topic The Age of Unpeace. How Connectivity Causes Conflict was released.
Stronger than it thinks it is: how Europe should deal with China
The question of how the EU should deal with the world’s rising powers will dominate the informal Gymnich foreign ministers’ meeting and the European Council meeting over the next week. In a memo to European leaders, François Godement and Mark Leonard argue that the financial crisis may have increased Europe’s leverage when it deals with Beijing
The EAS and Europe’s place in the world
Building the EAS is not simply about backroom Brussels politics and bureaucratic infighting. It is about giving Europe the means to punch its weight in a changing world
The 20 year crisis
Response to the Haiti tragedy; the struggling mission in Afghanistan; the economic crisis. The west is in a ’20 year crisis’
How to deal with a more assertive China?
Western governments need to show they are getting serious. Otherwise we will end up with another Copenhagen
Europe must rediscover its power
The EU needs to take a good look at its relations and position in the world ? Lady Ashton is well placed to integrate its strengths
What does Russia think?
ECFR publishes a collection of views from key Russian intellectuals
Europe must stand up for Georgia
Open letter: Twenty years after half of Europe was freed, a new wall is being built – across Georgia
The self-hating Parliament
The next generation of EU technocrats will need to be populists as well
Re-wiring the US-EU relationship
With the pivotal change of leadership in Washington, the US and the EU may have an ideal moment to strengthen the US-EU institutional bond
Publications
The meaning of sovereignty: Ukrainian and European views of Russia’s war on Ukraine
New research confirms Ukrainians’ determination to fight and Europeans’ steady support for Kyiv. But a major divide lurks beneath this appearance of unity
The idea of China
China’s ideas could become the country’s next big export. The Idea of China examines Chinese thinking about global order, AI, demographic change, and more – and considers how these ideas could influence the world
A new political map: Getting the European Parliament election right
Mainstream parties are hoping to prevent an anticipated far-right surge in this year’s European Parliament election. But the results of ECFR’s latest opinion poll suggest their current strategy could backfire – and what they should do instead
Wars and elections: How European leaders can maintain public support for Ukraine
As Russia’s war on Ukraine approaches its second anniversary, European leaders need to prevent Vladimir Putin from capitalising on war fatigue in the West. To maintain public support for backing Kyiv in this crucial election year, they should make clear that a Russian victory is not peace
A crisis of one’s own: The politics of trauma in Europe’s election year
European politics is divided between ‘crisis tribes,’ formed from different traumas. Climate and migration are set to be especially influential in this year’s European Parliament election
Living in an à la carte world: What European policymakers should learn from global public opinion
A new global opinion poll for ECFR reveals that many people outside the West want Europe and the US in their lives for all they have to offer – but that does not translate into full political alignment. People instead prefer an a la carte arrangement, in which their governments pragmatically select their partners depending on the matter at hand
Strategic interdependence: Europe’s new approach in a world of middle powers
Middle powers are shaping a fragmented world for which Europe is ill prepared. To protect its interests and values, the EU needs a foreign policy strategy that emphasises its wide range of interdependencies
China and Ukraine: The Chinese debate about Russia’s war and its meaning for the world
Chinese thinkers are drawing four key lessons from Russia’s war on Ukraine, informing their views on: America, Russia, Taiwan, and economic interdependence with the West
Fragile unity: Why Europeans are coming together on Ukraine (and what might drive them apart)
Recent polling for ECFR suggests that Europeans have come closer together in their support for Ukraine. But the factors driving this unity are fragile, contingent, and may not last
United West, divided from the rest: Global public opinion one year into Russia’s war on Ukraine
New polling for ECFR reveals the West is consolidating – while facing an increasingly post-Western world, in which powers such as India and Turkiye are readier than ever to act independently
Articles
Living in Trump’s world
Faced with the threat that Donald Trump poses to Europe’s economic and military security, European leaders must avoid both panic and complacency. The best way to do that is to use the time between now and 20 January 2025, to agree on their common interests and work out how to defend them
The US election will overturn Europe’s strategic status quo
Kamala Harris’s ascent to the top of the Democratic ticket has eliminated Donald Trump’s polling lead and allowed Europeans to contemplate alternatives to what would be their worst-case scenario. Yet, even if Harris wins, it would be foolish to expect complete continuity with the Biden administration
Harris must challenge Trump’s overtures to American workers
While Democrats frame the US presidential election as an existential battle between democracy and authoritarianism, Republicans are trying to position Donald Trump as a champion of the working class. To win in November, Kamala Harris’s campaign must show voters how wrong this narrative is
How can Keir Starmer keep Britain safe? As the US withdraws, he must renew the UK’s role in Europe
When the UK’s prime minister hosts other European leaders this week, their old protector will be absent. A shared approach to security is now vital
Europe’s coming paralysis
Given the state of the world today, it is difficult to imagine a worse time for Europe to be left rudderless. But with little room to manoeuvre after the European Parliament election, French president Emmanuel Macron and German chancellor Olaf Scholz are in no position to steer the EU through major challenges
What the Weimar Triangle could do for Europe
While the traditional Franco-German axis has fallen short of providing the kind of unifying leadership that the EU so desperately needs, the addition of Poland could change everything. And should Donald Trump win the US presidential election, this triumvirate would become Europe’s best hope for salvation
The Macron moment
Underlying all the problems that Europe faces in a new age of geopolitical, economic, and climate insecurity is a crisis in leadership. Judging by his recent speech at the Sorbonne, French president Emmanuel Macron could be the politician to supply it, but only if he abandons his standard political playbook
Europe must prepare for a Trump presidency
European countries have been slow to recognise the potential implications of Donald Trump returning to the White House in 2025. Over the next six months, they must figure out how to secure essential ammunition, bolster their defence funding, and sustain support for Ukraine in the absence of US aid
The Trump effect takes Europe
If disaster can be averted in this year’s US presidential election, a second-term Biden administration will be able to count on a much better partner in Europe, owing to the mobilising effect of Donald Trump’s candidacy. European leaders are finally realising that they urgently need to get their act together
Sunset of the economists
Two decades ago, China’s reformist economists walked the halls of power and dictated policy. Now, they have been sidelined in favour of a new priority: national security. What happened?
Specials
The Power Atlas
Power is now defined by control over flows of people, goods, money, and data, and via the connections they establish. Only states that see the new map of geopolitical power clearly will be able to control the modern world
What Europeans really want: Five myths debunked
New ECFR/YouGov research reveals huge fluidity in current voting intentions: 70 percent of Europeans certain to vote are yet to make their choice. Nearly 100m swing voters are up for grabs
Podcasts
Live from the Doha Forum: The Middle East after Assad
Mark Leonard welcomes Julien Barnes-Dacey, Ellie Geranmayeh, and Vali Nasr to discuss shifting dynamics in the Middle East and their implications for global geopolitics
Trump’s return: What’s next for the war in Ukraine
Mark Leonard welcomes Marie Dumoulin and Jeremy Shapiro to discuss how Trump’s re-election could affect the war in Ukraine and international efforts for peace
Ceasefire in Lebanon
Mark Leonard welcomes Julien Barnes-Dacey to discuss the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon
Brazil’s role in a changing world order
Mark Leonard welcomes José Ignacio Torreblanca and Pawel Zerka to discuss Brazil’s role in a changing world order
What Trump’s election means for Europe
Mark Leonard welcomes Célia Belin, Piotr Buras, Anna Kuchenbecker, Maria Simeonova, and Arturo Varvelli to discuss what the outcome of the US election means for Europe
Germany special: The coalition collapse
Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Cliffe, Janka Oertel, and Jana Puglierin to discuss the collapse of the German government coalition
Swamp Chronicles: Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, Mark Leonard, and Jeremy Shapiro on the results of the US election
In this bonus episode of Swamp Chronicles, Aslı Aydıntaşbaş and Jeremy Shapiro talk to Mark Leonard about the results of the US election
US election special: Donald Trump wins
Mark Leonard welcomes Aslı Aydıntaşbaş and Jeremy Shapiro to discuss the results of the 2024 US election
Russia’s playbook in Georgia and Moldova
Mark Leonard welcomes Tefta Kelmendi and Nicu Popescu to discuss what the EU can learn from the recent elections in Georgia and Moldova
China’s trade challenges for the European economy
Mark Leonard welcomes Agathe Demarais and Janka Oertel to discuss EU tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and the potential for future economic sanctions
Events
16 Sep
American Foreign Policy after the Elections
As discussions intensify on both sides of the Atlantic about the implications of a Trump 2.0 presidency, European leaders are now having to confront a…
26 Mar
Transatlantic Public Opinion on the War in Ukraine
In celebration of the opening of the ECFR Washington office, this public panel will look at the state of public opinion on the war in…
8 Jul
New paperback released – The Age of Unpeace: How Connectivity Causes Conflict
Mark Leonard will launch his newly released paperback edition of his book – The Age of Unpeace: How Connectivity Causes Conflict (Penguin) with a brand-new essay on the war in Ukraine and its implications for geopolitics
29 Mar
The birth of geopolitical Europe: In conversation with Josep Borrell
With the EU’s High Representative as our honoured guest, the panel will explore the birth of a geopolitical Europe and the new dimensions of European power with a focus on the tech, economic, and security terrains
10 Mar
The EU and Japan: Strategic partners in the Indo-Pacific
In collaboration with the Embassy of Japan in Madrid, ECFR has organised a public virtual debate to explore how the EU and the Indo-Pacific can build a strategic alliance and how the EU-Japan relationship can drive this process
5 May
Transatlantic relations after President Joe Biden’s first 100 days in office
How central is the EU to the US and its interests in Europe? And how does the public in European countries view Biden’s America?
15 Mar
European Power in a Biden Era: what role for France and Germany?
ECFR’s latest polling finds that Europeans celebrated Joe Biden’s victory but are sceptical that we will see a global resurgence of US power and…
3 Feb
The Geopolitics of the Green Deal
How to manage the geopolitical aspects of the European Green Deal and lead climate change efforts globally
21 Jan
THINKING BIG WITH Anne-Marie Slaughter
From climate, digital or security – what structures for global cooperation will emerge in a post-Merkel era and Biden presidency?
19 Jan
The crisis of American power: How Europeans see Biden’s America
The event will launch an exciting new report by Ivan Krastev and Mark Leonard, based on public opinion polling in 11 countries
In the media
Trump is different and the world is different
Mark Leonard on UK-EU relations following Trump’s re-election
Mark Leonard on Donald Trump
Europe needs to learn to defend itself with less America
Mark Leonard on the outcome of the US election
Europe’s response to Trump’s return demands creativity, resilience and an unwavering commitment to defending European interests
Mark Leonard looks at Europe’s response to Trump’s comeback
Mark Leonard on the re-election of Trump