ECFR’s World in 30 Minutes: The Panama Papers
ECFR’s director Mark Leonard speaks with Stefan Kornelius, head of the international section of the Sueddeutsche Zeitung, and with ECFR senior policy fellows, Kadri Liik and…
Experts & Staff
Mark Leonard
Director
Areas of expertise
Geopolitics and Geoeconomics; China; EU-Russia relations; transatlantic relations; EU politics and institutions; public diplomacy and nation branding; UK foreign policy
Languages
English, French, German
Biography
Mark Leonard is co-founder and director of the European Council on Foreign Relations, the first pan-European think–tank. His topics of focus include geopolitics and geoeconomics, China, EU politics and institutions. Leonard is a member of the UK Soft Power Council and the UK Foreign Secretary’s External Foreign Policy Board.
Leonard hosts the weekly podcast “Mark Leonards’s World in 30 Minutes” and writes a syndicated column on global affairs for Project Syndicate. Previously he worked as director of foreign policy at the Centre for European Reform and as director of the Foreign Policy Centre, a think-tank he founded at the age of 24 under the patronage of former British Prime Minister Tony Blair. In the 1990s, Leonard worked for the think-tank Demos where his Britain™ report was credited with launching Cool Britannia. Mark has spent time in Washington, D.C. as a Transatlantic Fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States and as Henry A Kissinger chair in foreign policy and international relations at the US Library of Congress, and in Beijing as a visiting scholar at the Chinese Academy for Social Sciences.
He is a regular speaker and prolific writer and commentator on global issues, the future of Europe, China’s internal politics, and the practice of diplomacy and business in a networked world. His essays have appeared in publications such as Foreign Affairs, the Financial Times, the New York Times, Le Monde, Süddeutsche Zeitung, El Pais, Gazeta Wyborcza, Foreign Policy, the New Statesman, the Daily Telegraph, The Economist, Time, and Newsweek.
As well as writing and commenting frequently in the media on global affairs, Leonard is the author of best-selling books. His first book, Why Europe will run the 21st Century, was published in 2005 and translated into 19 languages. Leonard’s second book, What does China think? was published in 2008 and translated into 15 languages. He has published an edited volume on Connectivity Wars and in September 2021, his latest book on this topic The Age of Unpeace. How Connectivity Causes Conflict was released.
ECFR’s World in 30 Minutes: Sanctions
ECFR’s director Mark Leonard speaks with Clara Portela, Assistant Professor of Political Science at Singapore Management University, and Jeremy Shapiro, ECFR’s Research Director, about…
The drawbridge fallacy
Terrorist attacks in Brussels were quickly pounced on by Brexit supporters, but is Britain's security is strengthened by EU cooperation?
ECFR’s World in 30 Minutes: Brussels terror attacks
ECFR's director Mark Leonard speaks with Manuel Lafont Rapnouil, Head of ECFR's Paris office, Anthony Dworkin, Senior Policy Fellow, and Nick Witney, co-director of…
ECFR’s World in 30 Minutes: State elections in Germany
ECFR's director Mark Leonard speaks with Franziska Brantner, Member of the German Parliament and ECFR council member, and with Josef Janning, Senior Policy Fellow and…
The German problem
How Angela Merkel’s handling of the refugee crisis emboldened the far right and led to troubling questions about her future as chancellor
The New Interventionists
As a new order takes shape, the roles countries have played for the last 25 years are likely to be reversed
ECFR’s World in 30 Minutes: The ‘one-in one-out’ EU – Turkey deal
ECFR’s director Mark Leonard speaks with ECFR Visiting Fellow Asli Aydintasbas, ECFR Senior Policy Fellow Mattia Toaldo, and ECFR Board Member and German politician…
ECFR’s World in 30 Minutes: The Norwegian model, and Donald Trump
ECFR’s director Mark Leonard speaks with Ulf Sverdrup, Director of the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs, about the Norwegian model and whether it could…
Publications
The new right: Anatomy of a global political revolution
The thinkers and ideas of the rising nationalist right merit the political mainstream’s attention. Only by understanding them can it build a resilient counter-project
How Trump is making China great again—and what it means for Europe
A post-Western world is learning to love China, while Europeans are starting to fear America
Trump’s European revolution
A major new ECFR poll shows how, six months in, the US president is reshaping European politics and the continent’s geopolitical identity
Alone in a Trumpian world: The EU and global public opinion after the US elections
Citizens of global powers are upbeat about a second Trump presidency – but this is by no means universal, particularly among traditional US allies
The cross-Channel reset: Trump, Putin, and shifting EU-UK opinion
Voters in both the UK and major EU states are open to compromise. Leaders on both sides of the Channel should use this political space for an ambitious reset
The meaning of sovereignty: Ukrainian and European views of Russia’s war on Ukraine
New research confirms Ukrainians’ determination to fight and Europeans’ steady support for Kyiv. But a major divide lurks beneath this appearance of unity
The idea of China
China’s ideas could become the country’s next big export. The Idea of China examines Chinese thinking about global order, AI, demographic change, and more – and considers how these ideas could influence the world
A new political map: Getting the European Parliament election right
Mainstream parties are hoping to prevent an anticipated far-right surge in this year’s European Parliament election. But the results of ECFR’s latest opinion poll suggest their current strategy could backfire – and what they should do instead
Wars and elections: How European leaders can maintain public support for Ukraine
As Russia’s war on Ukraine approaches its second anniversary, European leaders need to prevent Vladimir Putin from capitalising on war fatigue in the West. To maintain public support for backing Kyiv in this crucial election year, they should make clear that a Russian victory is not peace
A crisis of one’s own: The politics of trauma in Europe’s election year
European politics is divided between ‘crisis tribes,’ formed from different traumas. Climate and migration are set to be especially influential in this year’s European Parliament election
Articles
MAGA’s approach to Europe hasn’t changed
Although the speech that Marco Rubio delivered to the Munich Security Conference was softer in tone than vice-president J.D. Vance’s in 2025, the Europe he celebrated was that of the ethno-nationalist far right. Europe is on its own, and it must start acting like it
Where does Europe go from here?
Beyond showcasing Donald Trump’s “neo-royalist” style of politics, this year’s annual gathering of the global elite in Davos revealed deeper, structural changes that will shape political and business leaders’ decision-making for years to come. Europeans, in particular, must absorb the right lessons
Arctic hold‘em: Ten European cards in Greenland
Europeans have real leverage in the face of Donald Trump’s threats towards Greenland—and time on their side. They must use it to raise the prospective costs of annexation
2026: The year we stop pretending it’s just a phase
Ten key foreign policy trends for the year ahead
Decision time for Europe
Given the Trump administration’s recent statements and policy pronouncements, European leaders no longer have any excuse for failing to map out their own long-term security strategy. If they can get their act together on ending the Ukraine war, they will gain a much stronger position on other key fronts, too
How progressives can win on immigration
For rudderless centre-left parties, the debate around asylum and immigration should be seen not as a necessary evil, but as a political opportunity. By anchoring tougher enforcement in an authentic social-democratic agenda, the left can show that it has better solutions than the far right
What Chinese leaders really think of Trump
According to Chinese academics, economists and retired military officers, the country’s leaders are not losing any sleep over Donald Trump’s America First agenda. In fact, as they see it, the US president is ushering in a world that Chinese strategists have long been preparing for
Britain and Europe are changing together
The nuclear pact recently signed by Emmanuel Macron and Keir Starmer reflects how an emerging post-liberal Europe is taking the form of a defence community. Britain can help shape the continent’s new security order, so long as it banishes the Brexit mindset
Europe after the end of the liberal international order
As Europeans rearm to confront Russian aggression, they also need to figure out how to survive in the age of “unpeace” that Donald Trump and other strongmen are ushering in. The old interdependencies that liberals took for granted no longer ensure peace, prosperity or stability
Europe’s independence day
Incoming German chancellor Friedrich Merz is an unlikely candidate to lead a decisive break with the US. But an erstwhile über-Atlanticist and fiscal conservative might be the only German politician who can credibly bury the country’s economically disastrous “debt brake” and pave the way for a truly independent Europe
Specials
The Power Atlas
Power is now defined by control over flows of people, goods, money, and data, and via the connections they establish. Only states that see the new map of geopolitical power clearly will be able to control the modern world
What Europeans really want: Five myths debunked
New ECFR/YouGov research reveals huge fluidity in current voting intentions: 70 percent of Europeans certain to vote are yet to make their choice. Nearly 100m swing voters are up for grabs
Podcasts
Ceasefire in Iran
Mark Leonard is joined by Aslı Aydıntaşbaş to explore the recent Iran-US ceasefire, regional conflicts, and implications for Europe and global security
What the Iran war means for Europe’s energy
Mark Leonard is joined by Szymon Kardaś to discuss how the war in Iran is affecting energy prices and supplies in Europe
What the Iran war means for Ukraine
Mark Leonard is joined by Jana Kobzova to discuss how the war in Iran is affecting Ukraine, from US support to shifting European unity
Europe, Trump and the war in Iran
Mark Leonard welcomes Piotr Buras, Carla Hobbs, Camille Lons, Jana Puglierin and Arturo Varvelli to discuss how Europe is responding to the war in Iran
War in the Middle East
Mark Leonard welcomes Aziz Alghashian, Eran Etzion and Ellie Geranmayeh to discuss the implications of a prolonged war in the Middle East and possible ceasefire scenarios
India in a world of chaos
Mark Leonard welcomes Raja Mohan to discuss India’s changing geopolitical ties in a world characterised by change
Trump strikes Iran
Mark Leonard is joined by Ellie Geranmayeh, Jeremy Shapiro, and Cinzia Bianco to discuss the escalation following a massive joint US–Israeli military operation against Iran’s leadership and military infrastructure
How to defend Ukraine after a ceasefire
Mark Leonard welcomes Jennifer Kavanagh to talk about Ukraine’s security architecture and the consequences of a US foreign policy that deprioritises Europe
Bretton Woods institutions in a new world order
Mark Leonard welcomes Mark Malloch-Brown to talk about the future of the Bretton Woods institutions
Live from MSC 2026: Transatlantic turning point
Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Cliffe, Ulrike Franke, Janka Oertel and Majda Ruge live from the Munich Security Conference to unpack its biggest moments
Events
20
Apr
RSVP
Surviving Chaos: European options in a world of un-order
The event will explore recent developments in the international landscape and reflect on how Europeans can respond to an evolving global context. Mark Leonard will also present the main findings from his upcoming book ‘Surviving Chaos: Geopolitics When the Rules Fail‘. The discussion is organised in partnership with the Delegation of the European Union to…
23
Mar
European Power
The New Right: Anatomy of a Global Revolution
As European and German politics are being reshaped by electoral volatility, fragmented party systems, and the continued rise of populist forces, we are delighted to invite you to a public debate on “The New Right: Anatomy of a Global Revolution.” In the aftermath of the important regional elections in Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate, the debate…
13
Feb
United States
A conversation on the direction of travel of U.S. national security policy
Over the past year, the trajectory of U.S. national security policy has raised sharp questions about strategic clarity, prioritization, and the balance between restraint and intervention. Candidate Donald Trump famously campaigned on an “America First” approach: reducing U.S. involvement overseas, withdrawing from forever wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, and emphasizing homeland security…
European Power
The World in 2026: Global Public Opinion One Year into the Second Trump Presidency
How do publics around the world view geopolitics one year into the second Trump presidency? ECFR’s 2024 polling revealed that many middle-power societies welcomed Trump’s return to the White House. Yet twelve months on, perceptions of power, polarity, and alignment have shifted towards a multipolar, post-Western world. On the day of the launch of ECFR’s fourth Global Public Opinion Survey, this webinar will reveal how publics across 21 countries including China, India, Turkey, Russia, the…
9
Dec
Asia
Implications for the UK of Europe’s approach to China and economic security
China now poses a deindustrialisation-level shock to Europe’s economic future. The external impact of Chinese overcapacity, involution, and Beijing’s technological leadership and supply-chain dominance in critical future technologies is presenting an existential threat to Europe’s industrial base. The EU is weighing new measures in response, including stricter investment screening, European preference in procurement, a new…
12
May
European Power
The EU-UK summit in the context of Trump 2.0
The much-anticipated EU-UK summit on 19 May, expected to include a defense pact, will be an important step in the reset between London and Brussels, with the conflict in Ukraine having been a powerful vehicule for a rapprochment. At the same time, the UK is desperate to maintain its ‘special relationship’ with the US, to also best…
29
Apr
Asia
The US-China trade war and implications for Europe and the UK
Donald Trump and Xi Jinping are engaged in a high-stakes game of chicken in the emerging trade war. With more than 150% tariffs on Chinese goods and a reciprocal response from Beijing on US imports, economic relations between the two sides have essentially come to a halt. Lack of clarity around the US endgame creates…
10
Feb
European Power
The return of President Trump and its implications for the UK and for Europe
Most people in the broader world think President Trump will not just be good for America but that he will bring peace to Ukraine and the Middle East and reduce tensions in US-China relations. Are they right? What do his first few days in office tell us about his vision of the world and foreign policy…
European Power
World views on a second Trump presidency: Alliances, adversaries, and opportunities
As the world prepares for a second Trump presidency and its transformative impact on the global order, Europe faces an urgent need to not only reassess its transatlantic ties but also to rethink engagement with other powers on its path to strategic interdependence. This event which will explore the findings of public opinion polling conducted…
10
Dec
United States
How to cope with Trump 2.0: Ukraine, Nato, China and trade wars
The result of the US election is sending shock waves across the world and Europeans, including the UK, are trying to figure out how it will impact them and what are the best ways to protect their interests. Meanwhile, the campaign for the German elections is in full swing and the outcome will impact Europe’s…
In the media
ECFR poll mentioned on the European perspective on the US and Trump
Mark Leonard on how to navigate a multi-polar world where the rules-based order is over
ECFR’s survey reveals swing states’ lingering alignment with the US
Mark Leonard on how the Middle East conflict signals that rule-based order is over
Mark Leonard on how the war in Iran effects the alliance between the US and Europe