Lebanon: Containing spillover from Syria
How Europe can help Lebanon to avoid a descent into chaos
Director, Middle East and North Africa programme
Interim Director, Africa programme
Middle East and North Africa
English, French, Arabic
Julien Barnes-Dacey is the director of the Middle East & North Africa programme and interim director of the Africa programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations. He works on European policy towards the wider region, with a particular focus on Syria and regional geopolitics.
Barnes-Dacey’s recent publications include “Principled pragmatism: Europe’s place in a multipolar Middle East,” “Society max: How Europe can help Syrians survive Assad and coronavirus,” and “Guns and governance: How Europe should talk with non-state armed groups in the Middle East.” His work has been published in the likes of Foreign Policy, Politico, the Financial Times, and the New York Times.
Immediately prior to joining ECFR Barnes-Dacey headed the MENA practice at Control Risks, a private sector consultancy. Before this he worked as a journalist across the Middle East. Based in Syria from 2007 to 2010, he reported for publications including the Financial Times, the Wall Street Journal and the Christian Science Monitor. He worked across Iraq as editor of Niqash and was also based in Egypt. Barnes-Dacey was an assistant foreign editor for UK television’s Channel 4 News, and a field producer for Al Jazeera International.
Barnes-Dacey holds a BA in history from the London School of Economics, an MA in Middle Eastern Studies from the School of Oriental and African Studies, and studied Arabic at the Institut Français du Proche-Orient.
How Europe can help Lebanon to avoid a descent into chaos
As civil war engulfs Syria talk of politics and diplomacy has fallen silent. But the West should be redoubling its political and diplomatic efforts, even as it offers indirect support for the arming of the rebels in Syria.
The eyes of the world are on Syria's bloody villages. But now the revolution is finally coming to the once quiet, now tense streets of inner Damascus.
Julien Barnes-Dacey has just returned from a visit to Syria, and returned deeply pessimistic about the situation on the ground, with hopes for a political solution appearing all but dead.
Europe should take a more assertive approach to political reform in Jordan
The case of Syria shows that Europe maintains a limited ability to shape its Southern neighbourhood. For the time being it remains a fairly insignificant political actor in the unfolding Syrian crisis.
No one wants to deal with dictators. But one year after the Syrian uprising began, the harsh truth is that Bashar al-Assad maintains the upper hand and the opposition – with its international backers – may have little choice but to cut a deal with him if they want to ease the Syrian people’s suffering.
An end to the bloodshed may necessitate talks with the regime
For so long a reliably boring country in the middle of a tumultuous region, there are signs that Jordan may soon become lively as demands for political reform and the wider impact of the Arab Awakening begin to reach Amman.
Saudi-Iran diplomacy offers a rare path to prevent deepening conflict in the Middle East and support regional stability. Europeans should see this diplomacy as a chance to address their core interests, and not just as Iran’s attempt to bypass Western pressure
Iran has spent decades building up its influence in the Levant as part of its deterrence posture against Israel (and the US). The war in Gaza is now pushing the longstanding Israeli-Iranian conflict out into the open – and Lebanon and Syria are potential flashpoints for further escalation
Middle powers are shaping a fragmented world for which Europe is ill prepared. To protect its interests and values, the EU needs a foreign policy strategy that emphasises its wide range of interdependencies
Europeans need to deal with the Middle East as it is rather than as they want it to be, while staying focused on the principles needed to secure longer-term stability
ECFR’s policy experts examine what the Taliban takeover means for countries and regions around the world: Europe, the US, the Middle East, Russia, China, Iran, Turkey, and the Sahel
To achieve greater sovereignty, Europe needs to push back against rival powers, build leverage in armed conflicts, and be more effective in supporting reform
The Trump years galvanised Europeans’ efforts to strengthen their own sovereignty; they now need to agree concrete offers they can make to the new administration
European governments should pivot to a strategy focused on protecting those societal forces that are still standing and that can help salvage a better future
National politics need to be front and centre in de-escalation efforts
Lebanon, Jordan and Turkey have so far been resilient to the spillover from Syria’s civil war, but now the region’s stability is hanging by a thread
Following a ten-day advance, Syrian rebels have toppled the regime of Bashar al-Assad. European governments should step up support for a stabilising, power-sharing transition to protect their regional interests – and Syria’s citizens
Syrian rebel forces have seized Aleppo, reigniting the country’s civil war. As Bashar al-Assad remobilises, the country is likely to be sucked into a new cycle of devastating violence
As Donald Trump prepares for his second US presidency, Iranian and Israeli military manoeuvring during President Biden’s lame-duck period risks drawing the US into all-out war in the Middle East
European leaders are debating how to increase Syrian refugee returns. But rather than pushing for deportations, the bloc should focus on addressing security concerns and improving economic conditions inside Syria to encourage voluntary returns
Europeans should use their leverage with Israel and Iran to work towards regional peace
The Middle East is on the brink of a full-blown regional conflict. Western efforts to secure a ceasefire between Israel and Hizbullah will fail without pressure on Israel to accept a ceasefire in Gaza
European and US governments announced this week that Iran has supplied Russia with several hundred short range ballistic missiles for use in Ukraine…
Iran’s unprecedented direct attack on Israel risks further escalation in the Middle East. European leaders should join the US in pressing Israel not to retaliate with strikes on Iran – or the region could end up embroiled in an all-consuming war
Europeans can act now to help prevent an escalatory cycle in the Middle East and protect key European interests
As the devastation mounts in Gaza, European leaders need to call for a ceasefire and a broader diplomatic track to secure urgent humanitarian objectives, before turning to a realistic post-conflict plan that can address security needs for Israelis and Palestinians
This new ECFR mapping project identifies the spillover effects of the Gaza war in countries across the Middle East
European governments need a deeper engagement strategy to draw these powerful actors into inclusive political processes and power-sharing structures that can help stabilise the region
The eastern Mediterranean is becoming ever more perilous as geopolitical fault lines steadily enmesh the region. These rifts emerge from the Cyprus ‘frozen conflict’, competition for valuable gas fields, and the increasingly entangled wars in Libya and Syria
Turmoil in the Middle East and north Africa directly affects Europeans. Yet their influence in the region has never been weaker. This project maps Europe’s role across the Middle East and north Africa, making the case that Europeans can do more to leverage their influence in pursuit of core interests
An ECFR guide to the key disputes threatening to spark a wider Middle Eastern war
Mark Leonard welcomes Julien Barnes-Dacey, Ellie Geranmayeh, and Vali Nasr to discuss shifting dynamics in the Middle East and their implications for global geopolitics
Mark Leonard welcomes Julien Barnes-Dacey to discuss the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon
Mark Leonard welcomes Julien Barnes-Dacey, Ellie Geranmayeh, and Hugh Lovatt to discuss the regional war in the Middle East one year on from the 7 October Hamas attack on Israel
On Saturday evening, Iran launched a major attack on Israeli territory, with a combination of 300 drones and missiles. Israel’s air defense seems to have…
Mark Leonard welcomes Hugh Lovatt, Julien Barnes-Dacey, and Jeremy Shapiro to discuss the current situation in Gaza and the possible futures of the war
Mark Leonard welcomes Eran Etzion, Julien Barnes-Dacey, and Hugh Lovatt to discuss Hamas’s offensive against Israel and its effects on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the wider Middle East
Mark Leonard welcomes Julien Barnes-Dacey, Cinzia Bianco and Andrew Small, to talk about the new Saudi – Iran deal
On location at the Doha Forum 2022, Mark Leonard and his guests discuss Western energy sanctions on Russia and why is there a reluctance in the Gulf states and the West to cooperate on energy supplies
What does the re-engagement of regional actors mean for the future of Syria? And what role can Europe play to create breathing space in the country?
Who is filling the vacuum which the US is increasingly leaving behind in the MENA region? How are regional actors reacting to US disengagement?
A decade of military, humanitarian, and developmental European interventions in the Sahelian states of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have failed comprehensively. Yet, European governments…
A discussion assessing Iranian foreign policy following Hamas’s attacks of 7 October, Israel’s war on Gaza and the death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi
How can Europeans more effectively advance their human rights agenda as part of, and while maintaining, their broader relationships with regional states?