The pandemic was supposed to be great for strongmen. What happened?
From Trump to Lukashenka, authoritarians are discovering that this isn’t their kind of crisis
Ivan Krastev
Donald Trump’s defeat would deal a blow to European populism
Victory for Joe Biden in November would empower liberals in former Habsburg lands
Seven early lessons from the coronavirus
The Covid-19 crisis will dramatically reshape the EU’s response to all other crises it has faced in the last decade
Will Europe Ever Trust America Again?
As Western leaders gather in London this week, you might be able to detect a huge rupture beneath the surface
What do Europeans really want?
This month’s EU elections aren’t a fight between nationalists and progressives. They are total chaos
Why Viktor Orbán and his allies won’t win the EU elections
Right-wing populists think voters obsess about immigration. But that’s not the case
Central Europe’s Tough Choice: Macron or Orban?
Fears about political and economic marginalisation have damped the spread of new EU-optimism to Central Europe
Donald Trump and the Bieber Doctrine
“Go and love yourself” is essentially Mr. Trump’s message to his European allies.
Transforming the global system
In the new polycentric world, global institutions must be reformed so that regional powers have a say in the system
We need new rules for a multipolar Europe
The Deauville summit involving Sarkozy, Merkel and Medvedev was always likely to be a non-event, beyond the recognition that Europe is now a multipolar continent. Instead we need a new system – an informal trialogue on European security that would keep the EU united, Russia post-imperial and Turkey European
Publications
Managed disorder: The hard road to a modest peace with Russia after Ukraine
When the fighting in Ukraine stops, America and Europe will likely end up facing Russia in a low-grade rivalry for years to come. Here is how to prevent that disordered rivalry from sliding into another war
How Trump is making China great again—and what it means for Europe
A post-Western world is learning to love China, while Europeans are starting to fear America
Trump’s European revolution
A major new ECFR poll shows how, six months in, the US president is reshaping European politics and the continent’s geopolitical identity
Alone in a Trumpian world: The EU and global public opinion after the US elections
Citizens of global powers are upbeat about a second Trump presidency – but this is by no means universal, particularly among traditional US allies
The meaning of sovereignty: Ukrainian and European views of Russia’s war on Ukraine
New research confirms Ukrainians’ determination to fight and Europeans’ steady support for Kyiv. But a major divide lurks beneath this appearance of unity
A new political map: Getting the European Parliament election right
Mainstream parties are hoping to prevent an anticipated far-right surge in this year’s European Parliament election. But the results of ECFR’s latest opinion poll suggest their current strategy could backfire – and what they should do instead
Wars and elections: How European leaders can maintain public support for Ukraine
As Russia’s war on Ukraine approaches its second anniversary, European leaders need to prevent Vladimir Putin from capitalising on war fatigue in the West. To maintain public support for backing Kyiv in this crucial election year, they should make clear that a Russian victory is not peace
A crisis of one’s own: The politics of trauma in Europe’s election year
European politics is divided between ‘crisis tribes,’ formed from different traumas. Climate and migration are set to be especially influential in this year’s European Parliament election
Living in an à la carte world: What European policymakers should learn from global public opinion
A new global opinion poll for ECFR reveals that many people outside the West want Europe and the US in their lives for all they have to offer – but that does not translate into full political alignment. People instead prefer an a la carte arrangement, in which their governments pragmatically select their partners depending on the matter at hand
Fragile unity: Why Europeans are coming together on Ukraine (and what might drive them apart)
Recent polling for ECFR suggests that Europeans have come closer together in their support for Ukraine. But the factors driving this unity are fragile, contingent, and may not last
Articles
The pandemic was supposed to be great for strongmen. What happened?
From Trump to Lukashenka, authoritarians are discovering that this isn’t their kind of crisis
Donald Trump’s defeat would deal a blow to European populism
Victory for Joe Biden in November would empower liberals in former Habsburg lands
Seven early lessons from the coronavirus
The Covid-19 crisis will dramatically reshape the EU’s response to all other crises it has faced in the last decade
Will Europe Ever Trust America Again?
As Western leaders gather in London this week, you might be able to detect a huge rupture beneath the surface
What do Europeans really want?
This month’s EU elections aren’t a fight between nationalists and progressives. They are total chaos
Why Viktor Orbán and his allies won’t win the EU elections
Right-wing populists think voters obsess about immigration. But that’s not the case
Central Europe’s Tough Choice: Macron or Orban?
Fears about political and economic marginalisation have damped the spread of new EU-optimism to Central Europe
Donald Trump and the Bieber Doctrine
“Go and love yourself” is essentially Mr. Trump’s message to his European allies.
Transforming the global system
In the new polycentric world, global institutions must be reformed so that regional powers have a say in the system
We need new rules for a multipolar Europe
The Deauville summit involving Sarkozy, Merkel and Medvedev was always likely to be a non-event, beyond the recognition that Europe is now a multipolar continent. Instead we need a new system – an informal trialogue on European security that would keep the EU united, Russia post-imperial and Turkey European
Specials
What Europeans really want: Five myths debunked
New ECFR/YouGov research reveals huge fluidity in current voting intentions: 70 percent of Europeans certain to vote are yet to make their choice. Nearly 100m swing voters are up for grabs
Podcasts
Surviving chaos
Mark Leonard introduces his new book Surviving Chaos: Geopolitics When the Rules Fail. He is joined by Carl Bildt, Ivan Krastev, Gideon Rachman and Helle Thorning-Schmidt to unpack how capital, climate, chips, and civilisation are reshaping global politics
New politics with Ivan Krastev
The re-election of President Donald Trump and the recent successes of right-wing parties across the world are posing a challenge to the established political…
Live from Warsaw: Polling European politics under Trump’s shadow
Mark Leonard welcomes Carl Bildt and Ivan Krastev to discuss a new ECFR major report on how the United States president is reshaping European politics and redefining the continent’s geopolitical identity
Ukraine’s future in NATO
Mark Leonard welcomes Ivan Krastev to discuss how NATO membership can help Ukraine negotiate a durable peace
Living in an à la carte world: What European policymakers should learn from global public opinion
Jeremy Shapiro welcomes Timothy Garton Ash, Ivan Krastev and Mark Leonard to discuss how public sentiment can guide Europe in building partnerships and the world of tomorrow
United West, divided from the rest: Global public opinion one year into Russia’s war on Ukraine
Mark Leonard, Timothy Garton Ash, and Ivan Krastev discuss the main findings of ECFR’s latest opinion poll
15 years of ECFR: Reflections on Europe in a tumultuous world
We turned 15! Time to reflect on the past years and ECFR’s role in helping Europe find a strong, united voice
Peace versus Justice: The coming European split over the war in Ukraine
New ECFR research reveals that Europe’s remarkable unity in the early days of the war is under threat from an emerging split – between those who want peace as soon as possible and those who favour justice for Ukraine
Europe’s pandemic politics: How the virus has changed the public’s worldview
As covid-19 raged, speculation grew that the crisis would re– strengthen public support for the state; faith in…
L’avenir de la démocratie en Europe
Podcast de notre conférence du 24 avril « L'avenir de la démocratie en Europe » en partenariat avec la Revue Esprit, en présence…
Events
20
Apr
Surviving Chaos: European options in a world of un-order
The event will explore recent developments in the international landscape and reflect on how Europeans can respond to an evolving global context. Mark Leonard will also present the main findings from his upcoming book ‘Surviving Chaos: Geopolitics When the Rules Fail‘. The discussion is organised in partnership with the Delegation of the…
European Power
The World in 2026: Global Public Opinion One Year into the Second Trump Presidency
How do publics around the world view geopolitics one year into the second Trump presidency? ECFR’s 2024 polling revealed that many middle-power societies welcomed Trump’s return to the White House. Yet twelve months on, perceptions of power, polarity, and alignment have shifted towards a multipolar, post-Western world. On the day of the launch of ECFR’s fourth Global Public Opinion Survey, this webinar will reveal how publics across 21 countries including China, India, Turkey,…
European Power
World views on a second Trump presidency: Alliances, adversaries, and opportunities
As the world prepares for a second Trump presidency and its transformative impact on the global order, Europe faces an urgent need to not only reassess its transatlantic ties but also to rethink engagement with other powers on its path to strategic interdependence. This event which will explore the findings of public opinion polling…
United States
Transatlantic Public Opinion on the War in Ukraine
In celebration of the opening of the ECFR Washington office, this public panel will look at the state of public opinion on the war in Ukraine from both sides of the Atlantic in the run up to the US presidential and European parliamentary elections. As the war in Ukraine has passed its second…
Wider Europe
Charm offensive: What should the West make of Moscow’s Efforts to Court the Global South
Exploring Russia’s global engagement and its implications for the West
Wider Europe
Power audit of EU-Russia relations: How Europeans are learning to handle a new reality
Concluding that Russia poses a threat and that the EU let its dependencies grow too deep, the bloc so far attempted to decouple from Moscow. How should Europeans navigate the adversarial relationship in the future?
19
Jan
European Power
The crisis of American power: How Europeans see Biden’s America
The event will launch an exciting new report by Ivan Krastev and Mark Leonard, based on public opinion polling in 11 countries
In the media
ECFR policy brief “How Trump is making China great again—and what it means for Europe”, mentioned by Formiche
Interview with Ivan Krastev on the future of Europe and transatlantic relations
Ivan Krastev comments on the American President’s tendency to surround himself with family and friends even in his professional life
Ivan Krastev on EU’s future
Ivan Krastev on the Meloni-Trump spat