European countries need to prepare themselves at the UN Security Council for the United States to return to sanctions, regardless of any compromise approach to arms embargoes
In her collumn, Eli Granmayeh discusses the relations between Iran, Europe and the US
We have a very messy deal on life support. Instex is a Band-Aid to prevent the deal from falling apart. Everyone is waiting to see if there is any change after November.
Ellie Geranmayeh comments on the JCPOA and INSTEX
The two more hardline Iranian power blocs – the conservative ‘Principlists’ and Islamic Revolutionary Guard-linked ‘securocrats’ – will continue their recent ascendancy and press for a confrontational and ‘maximum resistance’ response
Ellie Geranmayeh's latest policy brief on how the US maximum pressure campaign as well as Europe’s involvement is shifting balance of power and discourse in Iran is featured in the Guardian.
They have fundamentally different view about how you manage this issue most effectively in advance of the US elections. Beijing and Moscow want to avoid pushing Iran into a corner and provoking possibly more unhelpful actions.
Ellie Geranmayeh discusses the recent IAEA vote and how it showed Russia's and China's divergence from the Europeans on how to handle Iranian nuclear matters in the months before November’s US presidential poll
Iran hawks want to kill any trace of the JCPOA before the term is up, burn down any diplomatic bridges with Iran
Ellie Geranmayeh comments on the JCPOA and the US efforts to invoke UN arms sanctions on Iran
Europe should consolidate its relations with its traditional partners in order to prevent further military escalation
The German newspaper refers to the Middle East New Battle Lines project recommendations.
These suggestions are sound policy but to get movement on any of these proposals, Europeans will need to also draw Washington into negotiations with the Arab Gulf actors who on security and nonproliferation issues remain highly influenced by the United States
Ellie Geranmayeh comments on global parties outside of Europe and their involvement in negotiations with the Arab Gulf actors
Ellie Geranmayeh quoted on how Europe could avoid the clash over the Iran arms embargo
Europeans should try to convince the United Sates to let the embargo expire and then convene on a new set of arm export restrictions to Iran within the Security Council
Ellie Geranmayeh quoted on how the Europeans should position themselves on the UN arms embargo against Iran
What makes their legal argument much more difficult is that you have had officials coming out on the record saying we have no rights or obligations under the JCPOA including the UN snapback is no longer in their remit
Ellie Geranmayeh comments on the US pushing to punish Iran by invoking nuclear deal Trump abandoned.