Israel-UAE peace deal: Flipping the regional order of the Middle East
The Israel-UAE peace deal provides multiple wins for both countries, and for the US. But it could yet deepen the region’s political fault lines.
Experts & Staff
Cinzia Bianco
Visiting Fellow
Areas of expertise
The Arabian Peninsula and the Gulf region, European relations with the Gulf countries
Languages
Italian and English (fluent), French, Spanish and Arabic (conversational)
Biography
Cinzia Bianco is a visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, where she is working on political, security and economic developments in the Arabian Peninsula and Gulf region and relations with Europe. Additionally, she is an adjunct associate professor for the Master in Mediterranean Cooperation and Security at the Luiss School of Government. Previously, Bianco was a senior analyst at Gulf State Analytics, a non-resident scholar at the Middle East Institute and a research fellow for the European Commission’s project on EU-GCC relations ‘Sharaka’ between 2013 and 2014.
She holds an MA degree in Middle East and Mediterranean Studies from King’s College London and a PhD in Middle East Politics from the University of Exeter in the United Kingdom, where she worked on threat perceptions in the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) after the 2011 Arab uprisings. She is the author of “The Gulf monarchies after the Arab Spring: threats and security” (Manchester University Press, 2024)
Deep sea rivals: Europe, Turkey, and new eastern Mediterranean conflict lines
The eastern Mediterranean is becoming ever more perilous as geopolitical fault lines steadily enmesh the region. These rifts emerge from the Cyprus ‘frozen conflict’, competition for valuable gas fields, and the increasingly entangled wars in Libya and Syria
Saudi Arabia, energy geopolitics, and the big production cut
Saudi Arabia took a major risk in launching the oil price war. There may be a political price to pay.
A Gulf apart: How Europe can gain influence with the Gulf Cooperation Council
Listen on Mixcloud The ECFR Rome office organized a virtual gathering, moderated by the Head of ECFR Rome…
Infected: The impact of the coronavirus on the Middle East and north Africa
The coronavirus has hit the Middle East and north Africa at a time when the region is already burdened with multiple problems, including a series…
Home and away: Mohammad Bin Salman projects his power
The Saudi leadership’s recent robust moves could mark the start of the crown prince’s long-awaited ascent to the throne
A Gulf apart: How Europe can gain influence with the Gulf Cooperation Council
Europeans can shift the balance of power in the Gulf in their favour by approaching the Gulf through flexible new frameworks
After Qaboos: The future of Oman and Gulf geopolitics
The fractious context of the Gulf means Oman’s new ruler could soon find himself seeking to emulate his predecessor and championing regional diplomatic dialogue
Saudi Arabia’s frozen-conflict tactics
Saudi Arabia is suspending its assertive foreign policy, seeking to prevent an escalation in tensions
Cracks in the Saudi-Emirati alliance?
Policymakers have closely watched the emergence of an apparent rift between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, as well as an ostensible attempt at rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Qatar, in recent weeks. The dynamics of the Gulf can have significant implications for European economic and political interests
Publications
Mending fences: Europe’s stake in the Saudi-Iran detente
Saudi-Iran diplomacy offers a rare path to prevent deepening conflict in the Middle East and support regional stability. Europeans should see this diplomacy as a chance to address their core interests, and not just as Iran’s attempt to bypass Western pressure
Global Saudi: How Europeans can work with an evolving kingdom
Saudi Arabia has become a middle power with outsize influence on global issues. To protect their interests, Europeans need a new approach to working with Riyadh which recognises the kingdom’s priorities
Renewable relations: A strategic approach to European energy cooperation with the Gulf states
Europeans should view COP28 as a catalyst to upgrade their energy relations with the Gulf states to long-term cooperation on the green transition and decarbonisation
A new climate for peace: How Europe can promote environmental cooperation between the Gulf Arab states and Iran
European policymakers should back climate diplomacy to help improve relations between Iran and Gulf monarchies
Power play: Europe’s climate diplomacy in the Gulf
If the EU is to achieve its climate and geopolitical goals, it will need to substantially increase its engagement with Gulf states on the European Green Deal
Useful enemies: How the Turkey-UAE rivalry is remaking the Middle East
Instead of using the UAE to push back against Turkey or vice versa, Europe should develop its own strategy on their rivalry
Gulf of difference: How Europe can get the Gulf monarchies to pursue peace with Iran
The arrival of the Biden administration in Washington, and the perception of US disengagement from the region, offers an opportunity for Europeans to help de-escalate tensions between GCC states and Iran
A Gulf apart: How Europe can gain influence with the Gulf Cooperation Council
Europeans can shift the balance of power in the Gulf in their favour by approaching the Gulf through flexible new frameworks
Articles
The Saudi dilemma: How Yemen could shape the next phase of the Iran war
As the Houthis attack Saudi ships and infrastructure, Riyadh faces an increasingly difficult choice: absorb the blows to stay out of the Iran war or retaliate and risk a dangerous escalation
Bypassing the straits: The India-Middle East-Europe corridor needs a wartime redesign
The Iran war has exposed the limits of an economic corridor built for peacetime. Europeans should rethink the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor for a region where trade routes are now strategic targets
The postwar UAE and the remaking of Gulf politics
Iran’s attacks on the Gulf have convinced Abu Dhabi that accommodation with Tehran has failed. Leaving OPEC reflects the UAE’s turn towards strategic autonomy, harder security alliances and a regional order less constrained by old consensuses
The Gulf on the front line: The end of strategic hedging and new space for Europeans
The war on Iran marks a turning point in the security calculus of the Gulf monarchies. Strategic hedging has failed—and Europeans could become just the reliable partners the monarchies need
A war with no winners: The costs of US-Israeli aggression on Iran
US and Israeli strikes on Iran have plunged the Middle East into wider war. Retaliation, regional entanglements and disrupted trade make one outcome clear: no side will achieve an easy victory
From partners to rivals: What the Saudi-UAE rupture means for Europeans
Saudi Arabia and the UAE are experiencing a fracture in their diplomatic relationship. Europeans need to understand the potential impact on their economic and political interests
Trump’s AI thaw: How Europe and the Gulf can protect against American and Chinese tech pressure
Recent changes in US policy have brought the US and Gulf states together again on AI—creating new openings for European decision-makers
Sudan: A war Europe cannot stop, but cannot ignore
El-Fasher in North Darfur is now the epicentre of the world’s greatest humanitarian catastrophe. Europe’s options are limited, but there are still ways to hold the responsible accountable
Out of the rubble: The new Gulf response to Israeli aggression
The Israeli attacks on Doha, and America’s support of them, has caused Gulf leaders to majorly rethink their security. This could lead to a new Gulf-led security format
Summit of ambition: How European and Gulf states can build a newly strategic relationship
From trade, to Ukraine, to Middle East conflicts, the EU and the GCC should finally grip the possibility of enhancing their relations at this month’s major summit
Specials
The Gaza crisis: Mapping the Middle East’s shifting battle lines
This new ECFR mapping project identifies the spillover effects of the Gaza war in countries across the Middle East
Deep sea rivals: Europe, Turkey, and new eastern Mediterranean conflict lines
The eastern Mediterranean is becoming ever more perilous as geopolitical fault lines steadily enmesh the region. These rifts emerge from the Cyprus ‘frozen conflict’, competition for valuable gas fields, and the increasingly entangled wars in Libya and Syria
Podcasts
Trump strikes Iran
Mark Leonard is joined by Ellie Geranmayeh, Jeremy Shapiro, and Cinzia Bianco to discuss the escalation following a massive joint US–Israeli military operation against Iran’s leadership and military infrastructure
Yemen: Between Gulf tensions and Iran war clouds
Cinzia Bianco welcomes Yasmeen Al-Eryani and Maysaa Shuja al-Deen to unpack the recent developments around Yemen and what they mean for Europe
Shifting sands: The geoeconomic triumphs of the Gulf
Mark Leonard welcomes Cinzia Bianco, Agathe Demarais, and Camille Lons to discuss the geoeconomics of the Gulf
The future of the Red Sea
Mark Leonard welcomes Cinzia Bianco and Theodore Murphy to discuss the crisis in the Red Sea and its escalation potential
Beyond Gaza: focus on regional and global players
Cinzia Bianco speaks to Dania Thafer and Elham Fakhro about the regional reverberations of the war in Gaza, particularly from the perspective of key Arab Gulf monarchies such as Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates
The role of the Persian Gulf in the war in Gaza
Jeremy Shapiro welcomes Cinzia Bianco and Hugh Lovatt to discuss the role of the Persian Gulf in the ongoing conflict in Gaza
The Iran-Saudi deal and its impact
Mark Leonard welcomes Julien Barnes-Dacey, Cinzia Bianco and Andrew Small, to talk about the new Saudi – Iran deal
The Middle East and the Ukraine war: energy supplies, nuclear deals and regional tensions
On location at the Doha Forum 2022, Mark Leonard and his guests discuss Western energy sanctions on Russia and why is there a reluctance in the Gulf states and the West to cooperate on energy supplies
How the Turkey-UAE Rivalry is remaking the Middle East
How can the EU prevent the Turkey-UAE rivalry from destabilising European security and foreign policy?
A Gulf apart: How Europe can gain influence with the Gulf Cooperation Council
Listen on Mixcloud The ECFR Rome office organized a virtual gathering, moderated by the Head of ECFR Rome…
Events
2
Jul
European Power
Il Circolo dell’ECFR – Hormuz, energia e connettività: la doppia sfida per l’Europa
La chiusura dello Stretto di Hormuz ha posto l’Europa di fronte a una doppia sfida: ripensare la transizione energetica in un contesto di forte incertezza sugli idrocarburi e sviluppare nuove rotte di connettività per ridurre la vulnerabilità a shock geopolitici. Tra i temi al centro del confronto: l’elettrificazione come pilastro necessario ma non sufficiente,…
European Power
A new climate for peace? How Europe can reconcile energy and climate security
Cinzia Bianco, Mats Engström and Anthony Dworkin were in conversation with Susi Dennison to hear how Europe can best meet its energy security interests all the while preserving its credibility as a climate superpower
In the media
Cinzia Bianco on the role Oman would like to play in the Strait of Hormuz
Cinzia Bianco on rethinking IMEC in light of the Hormuz crisis and the new balance of power in the Gulf
Cinzia Bianco on the shifting geopolitical order in the Gulf region
Cinzia Bianco states that a decades-old Gulf order is changing amid UEA’s announced exit from OPEC
Cinzia Bianco on UAE ties with the US, Israel and Iran