Shifting sands: The geoeconomic triumphs of the Gulf
Mark Leonard welcomes Cinzia Bianco, Agathe Demarais, and Camille Lons to discuss the geoeconomics of the Gulf
Experts & Staff
Cinzia Bianco
Visiting Fellow
Areas of expertise
The Arabian Peninsula and the Gulf region, European relations with the Gulf countries
Languages
Italian and English (fluent), French, Spanish and Arabic (conversational)
Biography
Cinzia Bianco is a visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, where she is working on political, security and economic developments in the Arabian Peninsula and Gulf region and relations with Europe. Additionally, she is a senior analyst at Gulf State Analytics. Previously, Bianco was a research fellow for the European Commission’s project on EU-GCC relations ‘Sharaka’ between 2013 and 2014.
She holds an MA degree in Middle East and Mediterranean Studies from King’s College London and a PhD in Middle East Politics from the University of Exeter in the United Kingdom, where she worked on threat perceptions in the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) after the 2011 Arab uprisings. She is the author of “The Gulf monarchies after the Arab Spring: threats and security” (Manchester University Press, 2024)
The Gaza crisis: Mapping the Middle East’s shifting battle lines
This new ECFR mapping project identifies the spillover effects of the Gaza war in countries across the Middle East
Rest meets West: How the UAE keeps its economic ties open
The UAE sees itself first and foremost as a valuable economic connector, bridging the BRICS+ and the West. Its bet is that that great powers, even amid rising tensions, need a safe haven to do business with one another
The future of the Red Sea
Mark Leonard welcomes Cinzia Bianco and Theodore Murphy to discuss the crisis in the Red Sea and its escalation potential
Seeing Red: Towards a diplomatic solution to Houthi attacks
The US and UK strike on Houthi targets in Yemen has done little to deter the Iranian-backed group from its attacks in the Red Sea. Europeans should instead launch their own maritime operation, engage in diplomacy, and call for a ceasefire in Gaza
National interests and regional turmoil: The Gulf states’ view on Gaza and the Red Sea
The Gulf states have loudly condemned Israel’s offensive in Gaza. But beneath the rhetoric – and amid unfolding regional escalation – many Gulf capitals are hesitant to put their national interests at risk
Beyond Gaza: focus on regional and global players
Cinzia Bianco speaks to Dania Thafer and Elham Fakhro about the regional reverberations of the war in Gaza, particularly from the perspective of key Arab Gulf monarchies such as Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates
The role of the Persian Gulf in the war in Gaza
Jeremy Shapiro welcomes Cinzia Bianco and Hugh Lovatt to discuss the role of the Persian Gulf in the ongoing conflict in Gaza
COP28: France has a key role to play
COP is taking place this year in the United Arab Emirates, whose subsistence depends heavily on fossil fuels. Despite the controversy surrounding the choice of venue for the summit, the EU and France must not turn their back on negotiations with the Arab state on the gradual phase out of these fuels
Bracing for a broader conflict: How the Israel-Hamas war could escalate
The unfolding war in Gaza between Israel and Hamas is at the precipice of a broader regional conflict. Europeans must urgently join regional efforts to support preventive diplomacy and avoid escalation
Publications
Renewable relations: A strategic approach to European energy cooperation with the Gulf states
Europeans should view COP28 as a catalyst to upgrade their energy relations with the Gulf states to long-term cooperation on the green transition and decarbonisation
A new climate for peace: How Europe can promote environmental cooperation between the Gulf Arab states and Iran
European policymakers should back climate diplomacy to help improve relations between Iran and Gulf monarchies
Power play: Europe’s climate diplomacy in the Gulf
If the EU is to achieve its climate and geopolitical goals, it will need to substantially increase its engagement with Gulf states on the European Green Deal
Useful enemies: How the Turkey-UAE rivalry is remaking the Middle East
Instead of using the UAE to push back against Turkey or vice versa, Europe should develop its own strategy on their rivalry
Gulf of difference: How Europe can get the Gulf monarchies to pursue peace with Iran
The arrival of the Biden administration in Washington, and the perception of US disengagement from the region, offers an opportunity for Europeans to help de-escalate tensions between GCC states and Iran
A Gulf apart: How Europe can gain influence with the Gulf Cooperation Council
Europeans can shift the balance of power in the Gulf in their favour by approaching the Gulf through flexible new frameworks
Articles
Rest meets West: How the UAE keeps its economic ties open
The UAE sees itself first and foremost as a valuable economic connector, bridging the BRICS+ and the West. Its bet is that that great powers, even amid rising tensions, need a safe haven to do business with one another
Seeing Red: Towards a diplomatic solution to Houthi attacks
The US and UK strike on Houthi targets in Yemen has done little to deter the Iranian-backed group from its attacks in the Red Sea. Europeans should instead launch their own maritime operation, engage in diplomacy, and call for a ceasefire in Gaza
National interests and regional turmoil: The Gulf states’ view on Gaza and the Red Sea
The Gulf states have loudly condemned Israel’s offensive in Gaza. But beneath the rhetoric – and amid unfolding regional escalation – many Gulf capitals are hesitant to put their national interests at risk
COP28: France has a key role to play
COP is taking place this year in the United Arab Emirates, whose subsistence depends heavily on fossil fuels. Despite the controversy surrounding the choice of venue for the summit, the EU and France must not turn their back on negotiations with the Arab state on the gradual phase out of these fuels
Bracing for a broader conflict: How the Israel-Hamas war could escalate
The unfolding war in Gaza between Israel and Hamas is at the precipice of a broader regional conflict. Europeans must urgently join regional efforts to support preventive diplomacy and avoid escalation
A touch of pragmatism: How Europeans can engage with the Gulf monarchies ahead of COP28
As COP28 approaches, the dispute over the phase-out of fossil fuels threatens to once again torpedo progress at the climate conference. Europeans have a chance to break this impasse and achieve meaningful progress by engaging with major fossil fuel producing countries like the Gulf monarchies
Intersections of influence: IMEC and Europe’s role in a multipolar Middle East
A new trade corridor linking India to Europe via the Middle East can offer opportunities for Europeans to strengthen their geo-economic influence with the Gulf. It can also be an opportunity for de-risking, but Europe should not expect to dislodge Chinese influence
Internalising peace: How to build on Saudi-Iranian de-escalation for a settlement in Yemen
The normalisation of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran has provided welcome impetus towards peace in Yemen. But resolving the regional dimension of the conflict should not come at the expense of inclusive, intra-Yemeni negotiations under UN auspices
The shoots of stability: What the Saudi-Iran deal means for the Middle East and Europe
Saudi Arabia and Iran have agreed to begin the process of normalising their relations. Europeans should consider how to help entrench the stabilising gains of the agreement – even as they navigate difficulties with Iran
An open relationship: What European governments can learn from China-Gulf cooperation
To compete with China’s influence in the Gulf, European governments should embrace multipolarity and offer concrete alternatives to Gulf monarchies
Specials
The Gaza crisis: Mapping the Middle East’s shifting battle lines
This new ECFR mapping project identifies the spillover effects of the Gaza war in countries across the Middle East
Deep sea rivals: Europe, Turkey, and new eastern Mediterranean conflict lines
The eastern Mediterranean is becoming ever more perilous as geopolitical fault lines steadily enmesh the region. These rifts emerge from the Cyprus ‘frozen conflict’, competition for valuable gas fields, and the increasingly entangled wars in Libya and Syria.
Podcasts
Shifting sands: The geoeconomic triumphs of the Gulf
Mark Leonard welcomes Cinzia Bianco, Agathe Demarais, and Camille Lons to discuss the geoeconomics of the Gulf
The future of the Red Sea
Mark Leonard welcomes Cinzia Bianco and Theodore Murphy to discuss the crisis in the Red Sea and its escalation potential
Beyond Gaza: focus on regional and global players
Cinzia Bianco speaks to Dania Thafer and Elham Fakhro about the regional reverberations of the war in Gaza, particularly from the perspective of key Arab Gulf monarchies such as Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates
The role of the Persian Gulf in the war in Gaza
Jeremy Shapiro welcomes Cinzia Bianco and Hugh Lovatt to discuss the role of the Persian Gulf in the ongoing conflict in Gaza
The Iran-Saudi deal and its impact
Mark Leonard welcomes Julien Barnes-Dacey, Cinzia Bianco and Andrew Small, to talk about the new Saudi – Iran deal
The Middle East and the Ukraine war: energy supplies, nuclear deals and regional tensions
On location at the Doha Forum 2022, Mark Leonard and his guests discuss Western energy sanctions on Russia and why is there a reluctance in the Gulf states and the West to cooperate on energy supplies
How the Turkey-UAE Rivalry is remaking the Middle East
How can the EU prevent the Turkey-UAE rivalry from destabilising European security and foreign policy?
A Gulf apart: How Europe can gain influence with the Gulf Cooperation Council
The ECFR Rome office organized a virtual gathering, moderated by the Head of ECFR Rome Arturo Varvelli, to present the ECFR publication “A Gulf…
Events
31 Oct
A new climate for peace? How Europe can reconcile energy and climate security
Cinzia Bianco, Mats Engström and Anthony Dworkin were in conversation with Susi Dennison to hear how Europe can best meet its energy security interests all the while preserving its credibility as a climate superpower
In the media
For Saudi Arabia, the Gaza war is definitely a real security challenge and they want to see a permanent ceasefire as soon as possible for several reasons
Cinzia Bianco comments on Saudi Arabia’s new foreign and regional policy and the implications of the new diplomacy on the regional chessboard
Cinzia Bianco on the role of Qatar in the war in Gaza
It is a well-armed and well-trained group that knows the territory very well and uses guerrilla techniques, being supplied by Iran
Cinzia Bianco speaks on the Red Sea crisis and the consequences of the Houthi attacks on a regional scale
I really fear that there is a new indication that the US administration is feeling a little lost as to how to pursue its fundamental objectives in the conflict
Cinzia Bianco comments on Israel’s position in the regional geopolitical chessboard
Kuwait’s alignment on regional issues is absolutely pro-Western, especially pro-US, as it is a state that favours stability
Cinzia Bianco comments on Kuwait’s position in the Middle East scenario