Russia, Ukraine, and the two Koreas: How east Asian powers are influencing Europe’s security
Europeans should work to understand the threats from the North Korea-Russia relationship – and deepen their security partnership with South Korea
Ukraine
Red lines (blow away): Ukraine’s incursion into Russia
Ukraine’s audacious incursion into Russia’s Kursk region has changed the narrative of the war – and called Putin’s bluff on his so-called red lines
Rebuilding Ukraine: How a ‘prevention first’ approach can avert destruction and save costs
Secure air defences and freer weapons use would encourage Ukrainians to return home, protect energy supplies, and boost the economy
Dreaming of EU: The challenges ahead for Ukraine’s and Moldova’s accession
Accession negotiations for Ukraine and Moldova have formally begun. But four main challenges lay ahead before the EU welcomes its eastern neighbours into the bloc
Ukraine can still recover with bolder Western support – but right now it’s on the ropes
The Ukrainian world heavyweight boxing champion beat back a giant opponent, but his country can’t defeat Russia on its own
In the same boat: Why Taiwan is strengthening ties with central and eastern Europe
Based on the idea that Russia’s and China’s increasingly aggressive foreign policies are interrelated, Taipei is strengthening ties with central and eastern Europe
The power of a promise: Understanding Ukraine’s bilateral security agreements
Bilateral security agreements send a clear and important signal of allies’ support for Ukraine. But to avoid hurting Ukraine in the long run, it is important to be clear about their limitations
Separate to integrate: EU enlargement and the trouble with bilateral disputes
That EU enlargement is a geopolitical imperative is no longer in doubt. But to make enlargement happen, the EU may need to decouple bilateral disputes from the accession process
Greasing the gears: Readying Ukraine’s civil service for a European future
Away from Ukraine’s frontlines, its civil servants are leading the country towards EU membership – but huge reforms are needed if they are to be successful
A defeat for Putin in Ukraine will improve the chances for the Other Russia
Alexei Navalny’s funeral and this weekend’s so-called election show us two Russias. Support the better one
Publications
The meaning of sovereignty: Ukrainian and European views of Russia’s war on Ukraine
New research confirms Ukrainians’ determination to fight and Europeans’ steady support for Kyiv. But a major divide lurks beneath this appearance of unity
Energising eastern Europe: How the EU can enhance energy sovereignty through cooperation with Ukraine and Moldova
Over the past two years, the EU has helped Ukraine and Moldova to diversify away from Russian fossil fuels. This has significantly strengthened their energy sovereignty – but improving the efficiency and cleanness of their energy sectors would bring further mutual benefits
Beyond the counter-offensive: Attrition, stalemate, and the future of the war in Ukraine
The Ukraine conflict is a war of attrition – that Russia is set to win. Europeans must act now to increase supplies, helping Ukraine not only survive, but prevail
Reformation nation: Wartime politics in Ukraine
No clear postwar situation is likely to emerge in Ukraine. The country’s EU partners will have to help it reform during wartime
Sustain and prosper: How Europeans can support Ukraine
The EU and its member states need to make an urgent commitment to Ukraine’s security and long-term commitment to its European future. If they do not, they risk alienating the very Ukrainians they seek to support
China and Ukraine: The Chinese debate about Russia’s war and its meaning for the world
Chinese thinkers are drawing four key lessons from Russia’s war on Ukraine, informing their views on: America, Russia, Taiwan, and economic interdependence with the West
Partnership for Enlargement: A new way to integrate Ukraine and the EU’s eastern neighbourhood
Russia’s war on Ukraine means the EU must devise a new approach to its neighbourhood. It should establish a Partnership for Enlargement that offers Ukraine and other states concrete steps towards deeper integration
Tough trade: The hidden costs of economic coercion
The EU needs to develop an Anti-Coercion Instrument that acts as a powerful economic deterrent, but this alone will not sufficiently protect Europe against economic coercion
Waves of ambition: Russia’s military build-up in Crimea and the Black Sea
Russia’s capacity to carry out large-scale military operations against Black Sea states allows it to coerce and extort them
Articles
Russia, Ukraine, and the two Koreas: How east Asian powers are influencing Europe’s security
Europeans should work to understand the threats from the North Korea-Russia relationship – and deepen their security partnership with South Korea
Red lines (blow away): Ukraine’s incursion into Russia
Ukraine’s audacious incursion into Russia’s Kursk region has changed the narrative of the war – and called Putin’s bluff on his so-called red lines
Rebuilding Ukraine: How a ‘prevention first’ approach can avert destruction and save costs
Secure air defences and freer weapons use would encourage Ukrainians to return home, protect energy supplies, and boost the economy
Dreaming of EU: The challenges ahead for Ukraine’s and Moldova’s accession
Accession negotiations for Ukraine and Moldova have formally begun. But four main challenges lay ahead before the EU welcomes its eastern neighbours into the bloc
Ukraine can still recover with bolder Western support – but right now it’s on the ropes
The Ukrainian world heavyweight boxing champion beat back a giant opponent, but his country can’t defeat Russia on its own
In the same boat: Why Taiwan is strengthening ties with central and eastern Europe
Based on the idea that Russia’s and China’s increasingly aggressive foreign policies are interrelated, Taipei is strengthening ties with central and eastern Europe
The power of a promise: Understanding Ukraine’s bilateral security agreements
Bilateral security agreements send a clear and important signal of allies’ support for Ukraine. But to avoid hurting Ukraine in the long run, it is important to be clear about their limitations
Separate to integrate: EU enlargement and the trouble with bilateral disputes
That EU enlargement is a geopolitical imperative is no longer in doubt. But to make enlargement happen, the EU may need to decouple bilateral disputes from the accession process
Greasing the gears: Readying Ukraine’s civil service for a European future
Away from Ukraine’s frontlines, its civil servants are leading the country towards EU membership – but huge reforms are needed if they are to be successful
A defeat for Putin in Ukraine will improve the chances for the Other Russia
Alexei Navalny’s funeral and this weekend’s so-called election show us two Russias. Support the better one
Podcasts
Russia, Ukraine, and Europe’s war economy
Mark Leonard welcomes Jana Kobsova and Nicu Popescu to discuss Russia, Ukraine, and the EU’s changing response to the conflict
NATO’s Vilnius summit: The highlights and the future challenges
Mark Leonard is joined by Alex Stubb, Lykke Friis, and Camille Grand, to discuss the outcomes of the NATO summit in Vilnius.
The future of European politics
Mark Leonard welcomes the heads of ECFR’s national offices to discuss key players outside the traditional halls of European power
The case for sending fighter jets to Ukraine
Mark Leonard is joined by Gustav Gressel to talk about sending fighter jets to Ukraine
War in Ukraine
As the situation at the Ukrainian border escalates, Mark Leonard and his guests talk about the recent developments and the state of play at the ground
Reshuffling Russia’s leadership – old wines in new bottles?
It came as a surprise when Russia’s government resigned just hours after Putin’s announced his plans for a possible referendum of constitutional changes. Host Mark…
Europe’s Eastern Neighbourhood: Ukraine and Moldova
Standing in for regular host Mark Leonard, Anthony Dworkin, senior policy fellow at ECFR, looks at Europe's Eastern neighbourhood and interaction with Russia. He is…
Ukraine Under President Zelensky
Podcast de notre débat du 21 mai « Ukraine Under President Zelensky » en présence de Victor Andruziv, directeur de l’Ukrainian Institute for…
Crimea at five
Jeremy Shapiro is standing in for the regular host Mark Leonard and discusses the current situation in Crimea and relations between Russia and Ukraine with…
The Sea of Azov: The newest front in the war in Ukraine?
Mark Leonard speaks with Andrew Wilson, Kadri Liik and Nicu Popescu about the Kerch Strait ship capture, what this means and how the international community…
Events
6 May
Geopolitics of Enlargement: Ukraine Strategy
This webinar will discuss current revisions of the EU approach to enlargement policy and the security implications for Ukraine and the neighborhoods
25 Apr
Belarus in 2024: Navigating Trajectories of War and Repression
This event will discuss Belarus’ role in Russia’s war against Ukraine and the repressions and threats faced by the democratic opposition in Belarus and in exile. It will also explore possible actions by Western countries in this context
10 Apr
Tech Summit, 3rd Edition – The rising technological influence in the next multipolar world
Following the success of the 2022 and 2023 editions, the 2024 Tech Summit will continue to foster dialogue on EU’s role in technological competition and the needed actions in a multilateral context in relation to technology, defence and security
9 Apr
Ukrainian Victory. How to bring sustainable peace back to Europe
The event, organised by the Embassy of Ukraine in Rome and the Embassy of the Republic of Poland in Rome in cooperation with the Italian Federation for Human Rights (FIDU) and the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) will discuss the current situation in Ukraine in a closed-door roundtable, with the participation of visiting Ukrainian experts
28 Mar
Rethinking & Reshaping: EU Enlargement in times of war
Russia’s war against Ukraine has prompted European policymakers to rethink their approach to enlargement. What form does this new approach take, what are the opportunities for EU and candidate countries, and what is the European Political Community’s role?
26 Mar
Transatlantic Public Opinion on the War in Ukraine
In celebration of the opening of the ECFR Washington office, this public panel will look at the state of public opinion on the war in…
22 Mar
Insight Ukraine: How Europeans can support the fight for Europe
In challenging times for Ukraine, despite public appraisals following the second anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the ten-year mark of the Russian…
20 Mar
European elections: what do voters really think?
A new opinion poll and four-part strategy on how mainstream parties can campaign to resonate with pro-European voters
1 Feb
New year, new Europe: Defence strategy, capabilities and technology
In NATO’s 75th anniversary year, ahead of a new EU institutional cycle in late 2024, we are delighted to present New year, new Europe: Defence strategy, capabilities and technology, the inaugural event of the European Council on Foreign Relations’ new defence initiative
12 Dec
How to convince the European public to enlarge the EU
This event will discuss new polling data of six key EU member states in the enlargement debate (Germany, France, Denmark, Austria, Poland, Romania) and reveal what voters think about the geopolitical imperative of EU enlargement
In the media
American pressure is likely to increase to push for negotiation. The challenge for Volodymyr Zelensky is to say that this negotiation can get underway only if they are in a favourable position
Marie Dumoulin on the ‘victory plan’ that Volodymyr Zelensky will present in Washington on 26 September
In the eighty-year history of nuclear power, there have been only two or, at most, three similar moments of major debate on its meaning, its risks, its limits and the means it implies
Camille Grand analyses the upheaval in thinking about nuclear deterrence in the context of the war in Ukraine
The idea is to deploy ground and air assets from NATO allies, so, for instance, Patriot systems, or F-16 [fighter jets] to Poland, Slovakia, and Romania on their side of the border with Ukraine
