Red lines (blow away): Ukraine’s incursion into Russia
Ukraine’s audacious incursion into Russia’s Kursk region has changed the narrative of the war – and called Putin’s bluff on his so-called red lines
Russia
Slippery swap: The dilemmas of prisoner exchanges between Russia and the West
The recent prisoner swap between Russia and the West raises pressing questions over how Western decision-makers should negotiate with Moscow in the future without giving it the upper hand
Digital deceptions: How a European Democracy Shield can help tackle Russian disinformation
In the lead up to the European Parliament election, rising Russian disinformation threatens to sway voters. No matter the election result, the EU should take coordinated and assertive action
Ukraine can still recover with bolder Western support – but right now it’s on the ropes
The Ukrainian world heavyweight boxing champion beat back a giant opponent, but his country can’t defeat Russia on its own
Putin’s military makeover: What to expect from Russia’s new defence minister
Putin’s appointment of Andrei Belousov as defence minister signals the Kremlin’s push to rapidly modernise the Russian military – and further reshuffles may be on the horizon
The EU’s sanctions odyssey: Understanding the proposed restrictions on Russian LNG and helium
Disagreement over expanding the EU’s energy-related restrictions makes a ban on Russian LNG imports unlikely. At the same time, potential measures on helium suggest Europeans are keen to avoid becoming dependent on the growing Russian industry
Trouble in Tbilisi: How Europeans can keep Georgia’s European dream alive
As Georgia looks set to adopt a Russian-style bill against “foreign agents” which will harm the country’s EU accession prospects, Europeans should be ready to suspend some funding assistance to Tbilisi
Risk and reward: Why the EU should develop the Middle Corridor trade route
The EU’s plans to upgrade the Middle Corridor trade route may boost Russian and Chinese connectivity with central Asia. But for Europeans, the long-term economic and strategic benefits of going ahead with the development far outweigh these risks
Win big, lose bigger: Why Russia’s sham election result could become Putin’s mistake
Vladimir Putin’s ‘historic’ election result demonstrates his absolute control over the administrative system, but could also encourage him to make big political mistakes
A defeat for Putin in Ukraine will improve the chances for the Other Russia
Alexei Navalny’s funeral and this weekend’s so-called election show us two Russias. Support the better one
Publications
The meaning of sovereignty: Ukrainian and European views of Russia’s war on Ukraine
New research confirms Ukrainians’ determination to fight and Europeans’ steady support for Kyiv. But a major divide lurks beneath this appearance of unity
Late-stage Putinism: The war in Ukraine and Russia’s shifting ideology
The Kremlin is creating a new, more unified ideology, which it is disseminating among the Russian population and using to attract global south countries to a new conservative alliance
Life in exile: A new approach to Russian democrats in Europe
European governments need a more coordinated response to Russian democrats in exile – to give them certainty for the future and help guard against Kremlin subversion
Beyond the counter-offensive: Attrition, stalemate, and the future of the war in Ukraine
The Ukraine conflict is a war of attrition – that Russia is set to win. Europeans must act now to increase supplies, helping Ukraine not only survive, but prevail
From Russia with love: How Moscow courts the global south
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, it has been competing with the West for the support of the rest of the world. But with all of its relationships now subordinate to its war effort, Moscow’s foreign policy is weakened
Reformation nation: Wartime politics in Ukraine
No clear postwar situation is likely to emerge in Ukraine. The country’s EU partners will have to help it reform during wartime
Articles
Red lines (blow away): Ukraine’s incursion into Russia
Ukraine’s audacious incursion into Russia’s Kursk region has changed the narrative of the war – and called Putin’s bluff on his so-called red lines
Slippery swap: The dilemmas of prisoner exchanges between Russia and the West
The recent prisoner swap between Russia and the West raises pressing questions over how Western decision-makers should negotiate with Moscow in the future without giving it the upper hand
Digital deceptions: How a European Democracy Shield can help tackle Russian disinformation
In the lead up to the European Parliament election, rising Russian disinformation threatens to sway voters. No matter the election result, the EU should take coordinated and assertive action
Ukraine can still recover with bolder Western support – but right now it’s on the ropes
The Ukrainian world heavyweight boxing champion beat back a giant opponent, but his country can’t defeat Russia on its own
Putin’s military makeover: What to expect from Russia’s new defence minister
Putin’s appointment of Andrei Belousov as defence minister signals the Kremlin’s push to rapidly modernise the Russian military – and further reshuffles may be on the horizon
The EU’s sanctions odyssey: Understanding the proposed restrictions on Russian LNG and helium
Disagreement over expanding the EU’s energy-related restrictions makes a ban on Russian LNG imports unlikely. At the same time, potential measures on helium suggest Europeans are keen to avoid becoming dependent on the growing Russian industry
Trouble in Tbilisi: How Europeans can keep Georgia’s European dream alive
As Georgia looks set to adopt a Russian-style bill against “foreign agents” which will harm the country’s EU accession prospects, Europeans should be ready to suspend some funding assistance to Tbilisi
Risk and reward: Why the EU should develop the Middle Corridor trade route
The EU’s plans to upgrade the Middle Corridor trade route may boost Russian and Chinese connectivity with central Asia. But for Europeans, the long-term economic and strategic benefits of going ahead with the development far outweigh these risks
Win big, lose bigger: Why Russia’s sham election result could become Putin’s mistake
Vladimir Putin’s ‘historic’ election result demonstrates his absolute control over the administrative system, but could also encourage him to make big political mistakes
A defeat for Putin in Ukraine will improve the chances for the Other Russia
Alexei Navalny’s funeral and this weekend’s so-called election show us two Russias. Support the better one
Podcasts
Under the overcoat: God save the Tsar
The Russian Orthodox Church is supporting Russia’s war on Ukraine in its sermons, sending priests to the front, and collecting humanitarian aid for soldiers and…
A view from Moscow
Jeremy Shapiro welcomes Kadri Liik and Valerie Hopkins to discuss what Russian society really thinks about war in Ukraine
The Russian troop build-up near Ukraine
How serious is the Russian troop build-up near the Ukraine border? And what should NATO do about it?
Events
3 Jun
Disinformation storm. Managing the unmanageable?
The Russian large-scale invasion of Ukraine has opened many European pandora boxes. Among them, energy and economic dependence from Russia; EU’s reaction time to Putin’s aggression; European disunity; the military and defense question; Europe’s fragility in the technological competition. Last, but not least, Europe’s exposure to external actors’ influence, with consequences on the information space and the “Open Internet” era, undermined like never before by disinformation
8 May
Rome Foreign Policy Club, Terza Edizione – Road to November 2024: prospettive e scenari globali delle elezioni americane
Nella sua edizione 2024, il Rome Foreign Policy Club riunisce giovani ricercatori italiani under 40 per costruire ipotesi di scenario che possano supportare la definizione di policy da parte del Ministero per gli Affari Esteri e la Cooperazione Internazionale. L’evento più significativo per l’anno in corso è indubbiamente rappresentato dalle elezioni americane di novembre il cui esito avrà enormi implicazioni su due aspetti cruciali del contesto internazionale: i rapporti con Cina e Sud Globale e le relazioni con Mosca alla luce del conflitto in Ucraina
9 Apr
Ukrainian Victory. How to bring sustainable peace back to Europe
The event, organised by the Embassy of Ukraine in Rome and the Embassy of the Republic of Poland in Rome in cooperation with the Italian Federation for Human Rights (FIDU) and the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) will discuss the current situation in Ukraine in a closed-door roundtable, with the participation of visiting Ukrainian experts
4 Mar
Charm offensive: What should the West make of Moscow’s Efforts to Court the Global South
Exploring Russia’s global engagement and its implications for the West
30 Nov
Uninterrupted support: What Ukraine needs from the EU in the Long War
Ahead of the European Council in December where accession talks with Ukraine are expected to be opened, the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) is…
13 Jul
Democratic defence: Dibattito su Italia, Europa e disinformazione
Cosa possono fare Italia ed Europa sul tema della disinformazione e delle interferenze esterne in vista delle elezioni europee del 2024?
14 Jun
Who controls the Russian military?
What are the political dynamics surrounding the Russian military? Exploring potential scenarios for Russia’s civil-military development and implications for NATO and Europe
25 May
Battle of narratives: Europe in the face of Russian cultural war
The discussion, organized by the Rome Office of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) and LUISS School of Government, features the presentation of ECFR’s 2023 European Sentiment Compass
11 Mar
No longer only deeply concerned: Europe’s military response to the Russian war and what next
Ahead of the EU summit, French and Polish experts will discuss the European security situation as the war in Ukraine unfolds. They will analyse the current developments, EU’s role in the conflict and challenges for the EU security and defence in the upcoming months
In the media
Gustav Gressel on the Russian advance on the crucial supply hub of Pokrovsk and its impact on the Kursk offensive
Andreas Bock on the security policy consequences of Hungary’s border openings for citizens of Russia and Belarus
Russia still detains a number of Western citizens and hundreds of Russian political prisoners and may want to use them for future swaps
Marie Dumoulin analyses the ethical and strategic dilemmas and considerations that arise for Western countries when negotiating prisoner exchanges with Moscow
If those sponsoring the Unsmil UN mission in Libya fail to take control and create space for a new political process, Libya will continue to disintegrate on every front
