The fallout of the fallout: Zelensky’s reshuffle and protests in Ukraine
Zelensky’s outgoing defence minister did not hold back in his criticism of military commanders—and his allegations deserve proper scrutiny
Russia
Behind the curve: Britain’s defence investment plan in Trump’s world
The new defence investment plan is weighed down by the habits of Britain’s defence establishment. By contrast, the British public appear readier to accept change
Unconventional deterrence: How Europe can ward off a Russian attack
A nuclear deterrent does not preclude major war. Putin has learnt this lesson—now Europe needs to do the same
Combat lessons: What Europeans should learn from Ukraine
Buying new kit is easy. The real challenge for European militaries is to rethink how they organise themselves—and how they plan to fight
This is how to defeat Vladimir Putin
The Russian dictator’s dreams of greatness threaten NATO and the EU, not just Ukraine. Here are eight ways in which he can be thwarted
Sowing discord: How Russia is making the most of a global fertiliser shortage
Amid fears of an Iran war-fuelled global food crisis, Moscow is weaponising access to its fertiliser supplies in both Western countries and developing economies
From good to not good: The impact of the war in Iran on Russia
Russia is reaping the rewards from Trump’s war in Iran, but the benefits will likely not extend beyond the short term. Here’s how Europeans can make the long term arrive more quickly
Funding war, courting crisis: Why China’s support for Russia requires a European response
Russia is backing China’s claims to Taiwan in return for economic and trade support. Europeans need to understand the real cost of Beijing-Moscow cooperation
The ticking clock: Why NATO’s deterrence against Russia is under pressure
Putin has long wanted to extract concessions from NATO. The three factors deterring Russia from an attack—a war in Ukraine, military capacity, and NATO strength—are under unprecedented strain
Avoiding gas panic: Why Europe should remain calm about US energy supply
American gas supplies are helping Europe’s move away from Russian energy. Despite trade tensions under Donald Trump, reliance on the US carries fewer risks than reliance on Russia
Publications
Managed disorder: The hard road to a modest peace with Russia after Ukraine
When the fighting in Ukraine stops, America and Europe will likely end up facing Russia in a low-grade rivalry for years to come. Here is how to prevent that disordered rivalry from sliding into another war
Home alone: Europeans are ready to defend themselves
A major ECFR poll finds the European public, in a time of rupture, thinking differently and questioning old assumptions. It reveals new political space available to their leaders (for now) and challenges them to use it
Making defence European again
The Russian threat is not going away any time soon. To defend themselves without America’s help, Europeans need to pursue a new, distinctly European model of defence and deterrence
Electric collective: Europe’s clean energy future without Russia
The EU and member states must agree a high-level energy diplomacy framework and complete the phase-out of Russian fossil fuels
The bear and the bot farm: Countering Russian hybrid warfare in Africa
Russia has many quiet enemies in Africa. Working together, like-minded Africans and Europeans can roll back its troublesome influence
Occupational therapy: Frozen conflicts, Russian aggression and EU enlargement
As Russia accelerates its annexation of “frozen conflict” regions, the EU must enhance its policy to counter Moscow’s influence
The bear behind the ballot: Moldova’s election in the shadow of war
After a string of votes marred by Russian interference, Moldova is gearing up to elect its new parliament in September. As the election approaches, the Kremlin seems to be intensifying its efforts to thwart the president’s pro-European party, PAS, threatening the country’s EU accession
The bear beneath the ice: Russia’s ambitions in the Arctic
Russia is rapidly developing—and militarising—its Arctic territory as a strategic priority, even amid its war on Ukraine. Add Trump’s coveting of Greenland to the mix, and the next confrontation in Europe could be in its High North
The bear who came to tea: Russia, Libya and the Kremlin’s playbook for fragile states
Russia’s re-entrenchment in Libya, Europe’s soft underbelly, offers profound lessons on how it exploits geopolitical instability—and how Europeans can push back
Farce then tragedy: Russian views of the West and what they mean for Ukraine
How the Kremlin’s view of a declining US and a mercurial Europe shapes the prospects for a Trump-Putin deal
Articles
The fallout of the fallout: Zelensky’s reshuffle and protests in Ukraine
Zelensky’s outgoing defence minister did not hold back in his criticism of military commanders—and his allegations deserve proper scrutiny
Behind the curve: Britain’s defence investment plan in Trump’s world
The new defence investment plan is weighed down by the habits of Britain’s defence establishment. By contrast, the British public appear readier to accept change
Unconventional deterrence: How Europe can ward off a Russian attack
A nuclear deterrent does not preclude major war. Putin has learnt this lesson—now Europe needs to do the same
Combat lessons: What Europeans should learn from Ukraine
Buying new kit is easy. The real challenge for European militaries is to rethink how they organise themselves—and how they plan to fight
This is how to defeat Vladimir Putin
The Russian dictator’s dreams of greatness threaten NATO and the EU, not just Ukraine. Here are eight ways in which he can be thwarted
Sowing discord: How Russia is making the most of a global fertiliser shortage
Amid fears of an Iran war-fuelled global food crisis, Moscow is weaponising access to its fertiliser supplies in both Western countries and developing economies
From good to not good: The impact of the war in Iran on Russia
Russia is reaping the rewards from Trump’s war in Iran, but the benefits will likely not extend beyond the short term. Here’s how Europeans can make the long term arrive more quickly
Funding war, courting crisis: Why China’s support for Russia requires a European response
Russia is backing China’s claims to Taiwan in return for economic and trade support. Europeans need to understand the real cost of Beijing-Moscow cooperation
The ticking clock: Why NATO’s deterrence against Russia is under pressure
Putin has long wanted to extract concessions from NATO. The three factors deterring Russia from an attack—a war in Ukraine, military capacity, and NATO strength—are under unprecedented strain
Avoiding gas panic: Why Europe should remain calm about US energy supply
American gas supplies are helping Europe’s move away from Russian energy. Despite trade tensions under Donald Trump, reliance on the US carries fewer risks than reliance on Russia
Podcasts
Drones over Denmark: Russia tests NATO’s defences
Mark Leonard and Ulrike Franke discuss what Russia’s probing of European airspace means for the continent’s security
Russia, Ukraine, and Europe’s war economy
Mark Leonard welcomes Jana Kobsova and Nicu Popescu to discuss Russia, Ukraine, and the EU’s changing response to the conflict
Under the overcoat: God save the Tsar
The Russian Orthodox Church is supporting Russia’s war on Ukraine in its sermons, sending priests to the front, and collecting humanitarian aid for soldiers…
A view from Moscow
Jeremy Shapiro welcomes Kadri Liik and Valerie Hopkins to discuss what Russian society really thinks about war in Ukraine
The Russian troop build-up near Ukraine
How serious is the Russian troop build-up near the Ukraine border? And what should NATO do about it?
Events
26
Mar
European Power
Europe Debates | Russia won’t attack NATO
Russia’s hybrid warfare targeting NATO states has intensified since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Attacks on digital and energy infrastructure as well as drone incursions into NATO airspace occur almost daily now and put the alliance on alert about the potential of Russian aggression in the not-too-distant future. Between US president Trump…
28
Nov
Europe’s Last Chance? What we should do about Trump, China, Ukraine and other challenges of a transactional world
Europe today finds itself facing unprecedented global challenges and surrounded by transactional powers. Donald Trump is poised to redefine the global role of the US – revisiting alliances, challenging NATO, and treating security and trade alike as bargaining chips. China is pressing its advantage in technology, infrastructure, and diplomacy, asking Europeans to choose between principles…
6
Nov
European Power
Oltre l’Emergenza: Italia e Minacce Ibride tra Crisi Immediata e Rischio Sistemico
Nel contesto internazionale segnato da una crescente competizione sistemica, le minacce ibride rappresentano oggi una delle sfide più complesse per la sicurezza nazionale ed europea. L’incontro intende promuovere un confronto tra istituzioni, think tank e settore privato per analizzare la natura multivettoriale e sistemica di tali minacce, e individuare strategie di contrasto e strumenti…
European Power
Is Russia Winning or Collapsing? The State of Country and its Society
Despite unprecedented Western sanctions, Russia’s economy has shown surprising resilience, though recent data suggests this war-fueled growth may be reaching its limits—a crucial factor since analysts have long identified the economy as key to Russia’s ability to sustain its military campaign. Simultaneously, we’re witnessing escalating Russian hybrid activities against Western nations, from drone incursions…
9
Jul
European Security
Round-Table – Breaking the Chain: Countering Shadow Fleet Operations in Europe’s Strategic Waterways
The event contributes to the wider Ukraine Recovery Conference by examining a critical dimension of Russia’s war against Ukraine: the economic infrastructure underlying the conflict and the maritime security challenges it creates for Europe. It aims to create space for discussion among key experts and stakeholders on policy options to address Russian economic…
5
Jun
Africa
Shifting Powers: the evolving US-China presence amid the growing role of Russia in Africa
As Africa becomes an increasingly central arena for Russia’s interests, the role of the United States and China is undergoing significant transformation. With Trump’s return to the White House, a broader US economic-military repositioning in Africa to contain external influences seems to occur, while Beijing continues to deepen its structural economic presence across the…
4
Jun
European Power
Das Imperium schlägt zurück? Russlands Großmachtansprüche und mitteleuropäische Bedrohungswahrnehmungen
Der Zerfall der Sowjetunion im Jahr 1991 nährte die Hoffnung auf eine friedlichere europäische Ordnung. Doch diese Hoffnung erwies sich als trügerisch. Unter Wladimir Putin erlebt Russlands Großmachtanspruch eine gefährliche Renaissance, genährt von dem Wunsch, eine Einflusssphäre in Russlands Nachbarschaft wiederherzustellen. Die vom Kreml propagierte Idee einer “russischen Welt”, die russischsprachige Bevölkerungen im…
6
May
European Power
Europa auf sich gestellt? Sicherheits- und Verteidigungspolitik in Umbruchszeiten
Die europäische Sicherheitspolitik befindet sich in einem fundamentalen Wandel. Die transatlantische Partnerschaft, einst Eckpfeiler europäischer Sicherheit, gerät durch eine veränderte US-amerikanische Außenpolitik zunehmend unter Druck. Gleichzeitig stellen Russland und China zunehmend eine Bedrohung für Europas Sicherheit und Wirtschaftsmodell dar. Diese Entwicklungen zwingen Europa zur dringenden Auseinandersetzung mit seiner eigenen Rolle und der Fähigkeit zur…
18
Mar
United States
Riders on the storm: Trump, Europe and the future of Ukraine
La Conferenza sulla Sicurezza di Monaco e i dialoghi in Arabia Saudita tra americani e russi hanno messo in luce il tentativo di creare un nuovo ordine mondiale, che potrebbe tuttavia minacciare l’assetto liberale e, soprattutto, indebolire l’Europa. La nuova amministrazione Trump, principale artefice di questi cambiamenti, rischia di mettere gli europei gli uni…
