New ECFR research reveals that Europeans are split about the long-term goals of the war in Ukraine. Unless political leaders find a new language to bridge the gap between emerging “Peace” and “Justice” camps, Europe could become polarised between – and within – countries.
Ukraine’s Western allies are discussing the possibility of confiscating frozen Russian sovereign assets to support Ukraine’s reconstruction. But if confiscated during the war, these funds could provide desperately needed – and stable – financial support for Kyiv’s war effort
Russia has gained the upper hand in its war on Ukraine. To reverse Moscow’s progress, the West will need to invest more in supporting Kyiv. With this in mind, here are three scenarios for what could happen in 2024
The war in Ukraine has reinforced the strategic role of global tech giants in defence and security policy. NATO and the EU should learn from this as they try to deter future aggressors
Western military support helped sustain Ukraine through the first year of the war. But if Western allies want a Ukrainian victory, they need to adopt a more proactive strategy
Military help for Ukraine is moving towards serious questions of logistics – but more countries still need to step forward. Here is how the next-stage coalition could look.
Russia is likely to make some progress in the first half of 2023, but it may lack the capability to hold on to its gains
After several countries committed to delivering heavy weapons to Ukraine, all eyes are on Germany and the US, and whether they will agree to send Leopard 2 and M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine
Although Ukrainians are heading into a hard winter sustained by a sense of optimism and hope for peace in the near future, this is no time for complacency. The West, and especially the European Union, must get serious about positioning itself for a protracted, multi-pronged conflict.
A UN-backed court could reinforce condemnation of Russia’s aggressive war and reduce Putin’s legitimacy on the international stage. But its establishment and success will depend on the commitment it receives
We are not on a path to nuclear war – but strong deterrence measures from the West can help ensure that scenario remains unlikely
ECFR’s new EU-Russia power audit reveals a picture of success in decoupling from Moscow – and suggests the bloc could emerge stronger from the crisis
Ukraine has mounted an innovative response to Russian aggression in 2022. The rest of Europe can learn from this – but should continue to provide weapons and training in return
The EU should conclude a security compact with Ukraine. Such an agreement would help the country defend itself against Russia and maximise the effectiveness of European military support.
To signal their commitment to Ukraine, Europeans should agree a ‘long-war plan’ of assistance against Russian aggression. This would include a ‘security compact,’ security assurances, and economic and energy support.
Russia’s war on Ukraine means the EU must devise a new approach to its neighbourhood. It should establish a Partnership for Enlargement that offers Ukraine and other states concrete steps towards deeper integration.
New ECFR research reveals that Europeans are split about the long-term goals of the war in Ukraine. Unless political leaders find a new language to bridge the gap between emerging “Peace” and “Justice” camps, Europe could become polarised between – and within – countries.
Europeans have found India’s position on the Ukraine war frustrating. But, although it is dependent on Russia for its arms, and has huge worries about China, India is actually moving inexorably closer to the West.
Europeans are united around three key ideas about the war in Ukraine. The crisis will likely test their readiness to defend the European security order.
The EU needs to develop an Anti-Coercion Instrument that acts as a powerful economic deterrent, but this alone will not sufficiently protect Europe against economic coercion
Russia’s capacity to carry out large-scale military operations against Black Sea states allows it to coerce and extort them
Ukraine’s Western allies are discussing the possibility of confiscating frozen Russian sovereign assets to support Ukraine’s reconstruction. But if confiscated during the war, these funds could provide desperately needed – and stable – financial support for Kyiv’s war effort
Russia has gained the upper hand in its war on Ukraine. To reverse Moscow’s progress, the West will need to invest more in supporting Kyiv. With this in mind, here are three scenarios for what could happen in 2024
The war in Ukraine has reinforced the strategic role of global tech giants in defence and security policy. NATO and the EU should learn from this as they try to deter future aggressors
Western military support helped sustain Ukraine through the first year of the war. But if Western allies want a Ukrainian victory, they need to adopt a more proactive strategy
Military help for Ukraine is moving towards serious questions of logistics – but more countries still need to step forward. Here is how the next-stage coalition could look.
Russia is likely to make some progress in the first half of 2023, but it may lack the capability to hold on to its gains
After several countries committed to delivering heavy weapons to Ukraine, all eyes are on Germany and the US, and whether they will agree to send Leopard 2 and M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine
Although Ukrainians are heading into a hard winter sustained by a sense of optimism and hope for peace in the near future, this is no time for complacency. The West, and especially the European Union, must get serious about positioning itself for a protracted, multi-pronged conflict.
A UN-backed court could reinforce condemnation of Russia’s aggressive war and reduce Putin’s legitimacy on the international stage. But its establishment and success will depend on the commitment it receives
We are not on a path to nuclear war – but strong deterrence measures from the West can help ensure that scenario remains unlikely
Mark Leonard, Camille Grand, Gustav Gressel, Jana Puglierin, and Jeremy Shapiro discuss what the Leopard 2 decision means for the war in Ukraine
Mark Leonard is joined by Fyodor Lukyanov to learn more about the Russian perspective on global order
Mark Leonard is joined by ECFR’s Piotr Buras, Gustav Gressel, Kadri Liik, and Jeremy Shapiro to describe and debate the potential military, security, and economic aspects of the long-war plan
New ECFR research reveals that Europe’s remarkable unity in the early days of the war is under threat from an emerging split – between those who want peace as soon as possible and those who favour justice for Ukraine
How sustainable is European unity? And what scenarios of solidarity or division can be expected in the next few months?
What can Sweden and Finland offer NATO? And are they worried about the Kremlin’s threats to attack their countries?
On location at the Doha Forum 2022, Mark Leonard and his guests discuss Western energy sanctions on Russia and why is there a reluctance in the Gulf states and the West to cooperate on energy supplies
What concepts define Ukrainian history and identity, and how is this important in understanding Ukraine’s response to the Russian invasion?
How should Europe react to Russian loss or indeed victory in this war? And what are the possible ramifications for the West?
What kind of role did foreign policy play in the election campaigns before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and what role is it playing now?
The event, organised by the Embassy of Ukraine in Rome and the Embassy of the Republic of Poland in Rome in cooperation with the Italian Federation for Human Rights (FIDU) and the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) will discuss the current situation in Ukraine in a closed-door roundtable, with the participation of visiting Ukrainian experts
In challenging times for Ukraine, despite public appraisals following the second anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the ten-year mark of the Russian…
Ahead of the European Council in December where accession talks with Ukraine are expected to be opened, the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) is…
The discussion, organized by the Rome Office of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) and LUISS School of Government, features the presentation of ECFR’s 2023 European Sentiment Compass
Nell’attuale contesto internazionale, le relazioni dell’Europa con le potenze globali stanno cambiando rapidamente, e la loro evoluzione rappresenta un elemento di analisi ineludibile nel delineare la strategia di politica estera dell’UE
Russia’s devastating war against Ukraine on European soil has been raging for one year now. With tens of thousands of Ukrainian lives lost, the country is fighting…
To brace for a “Long War”, Europe needs to be ready to take its lessons learned from more than half a year of the war to heart and deliver enduring support to Ukraine
L’evento si concentrerà sul ruolo e la postura della Cina negli attuali equilibri internazionali
Conference on the war in Ukraine and its consequences on the international system
How to effectively separate the Belarusian society from the regime when taking sanctions measures? Will the independence of Belarus survive international isolation left alone with an expansionist Russia?
The weekend of Israeli attacks has triggered a new sense of inequality and a lack of prospects in Kyiv
Stefan Kornelius analyses the ongoing missile hail on Ukrainian cities
Although a Russian attack on other European countries is not imminent, the risk would increase exponentially if Europe fails to support Kyiv
Nathalie Tocci explains what is needed from Europe as US support for Kyiv falters
When Russian President Vladimir Putin gave the order to attack the Ukrainians in February 2022, he also attacked the Soviet Union
Putin plays, on the one hand, with propaganda and, on the other, with military intimidation, trying to appear stronger than he actually is
Arturo Varvelli comments on the attack in Odessa close to Ukrainian President Zelensky, on a visit with Greek Prime Minister Mitsotakis
Ukrainian military experts are cautious about providing information on these defences, which also include surface-to-air missile systems Nasams (Norway, USA), SAMPS/T (Italy, France) and others
