Europe vs. Trump: Deterrence or escalation? 

This week, Mark Leonard hosts Tobias Gehrke, an ECFR senior policy fellow specialising in geoeconomics and economic security, and José Ignacio Torreblanca, head of ECFR’s Madrid office and expert on tech geopolitics, to explore how Europe can counter a potentially hostile Trump administration. 

With trade wars looming and the US flexing its power, Mark and his guests delve into Tobias’s new policy brief, Brussels hold’em: European cards against Trumpian coercion. They outline which tools Europe can use—from trade tariffs and service restrictions, to targeting tech giants like Elon Musk’s Starlink and Tesla, to curbing data flows and licences for firms like BlackRock—to apply leverage over Trump’s administration. The discussion weighs the costs of deterrence, the risk of escalation into security domains like NATO, and the threat posed by tech tycoons to European democracy. Can Europe stand firm without shooting itself in the foot? 

This podcast was recorded on 20^th March. 

Bookshelf:

Brussels hold’em: European cards against Trumpian coercion by Tobias Gehrke

No brain, no brawn: Trump 2.0 makes an EU Economic Security Network essential by Agathe Demarais and Abraham Newman

New World New Rules. Global Cooperation in a World of Geopolitical Rivalries by George Papaconstantinou and Jean Pisani-Ferry

Money: A story of humanity by David McWilliams