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Highlights

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Latest

China Trade

EU-Mercosur deal: Take the win, but change the tune 

  • Janka Oertel
Assault Teams Training In Lugansk People'S Republic

Putin’s longest war: Calling time on Russia’s endurance myth

  • Jana Kobzova, Leo Litra

Featured

547734716

Arctic hold‘em: Ten European cards in Greenland

  • Jana Kobzova, Mark Leonard, Jim O’Brien, Jana Puglierin, Jeremy Shapiro, Vessela Tcherneva, Katrine Westgaard
  • Commentary
  • 10 minute read

Europeans have real leverage in the face of Donald Trump’s threats towards Greenland—and time on their side. They must use it to raise the prospective costs of annexation

Trump MCGA

How Trump is making China great again—and what it means for Europe

  • Timothy Garton Ash, Ivan Krastev, Mark Leonard
  • Policy Brief

A post-Western world is learning to love China, while Europeans are starting to fear America

Bundespräsident Steinmeier besucht Kasachstan

The green great game: Crafting an EU-Central Asia energy alliance

  • Szymon Kardaś
  • Policy Brief

With the difficult post-Soviet years behind it, Central Asia is becoming more integrated and actively seeking partnerships beyond Russia and China

Silhouette of a person walking on a European Union flag symbolizing political and economic uncertainty

Why Europeans should DARE* to make New Year’s resolutions 

  • Janka Oertel, Nina Schmelzer
  • Commentary
  • 5 minute read

As 2026 begins with a bang, Europeans are well-advised to reframe de-risking as re-engagement, unleash the single energy market and focus on electrification

Upcoming events

Recent events

16 Jan

Europe Debates | Russia won’t attack NATO

  • 16 January 2026 Online · ECFR Berlin
15 Jan

The World in 2026: Global Public Opinion One Year into the Second Trump Presidency

  • 15 January 2026 Online

Mark Leonard's World in 30 minutes

Will Trump bomb Iran?

  • Podcast
  • Mark Leonard's World in 30 minutes

Mark Leonard and Ellie Geranmayeh discuss the ongoing protests in Iran and the chance of US intervention

Listen

ECFR on air

Re Engage website

Trust, anger and the limits of EU democracy promotion 

  • Podcast
  • ECFR on air
  • The Neighbourhood

Jessica Hendrick is joined by Morten Bøås to go inside RE-ENGAGE’s fieldwork across six EU candidate countries—revealing what citizens actually trust, why anger matters more than apathy and what Brussels keeps getting wrong about democracy promotion

Listen

Views from the Council

567256343

Trump strikes Venezuela: Three conclusions for Europe

  • Carl Bildt
  • Commentary
  • View from the Council
  • 3 minute read

Trump’s military action in Venezuela highlights America’s hemispheric turn, its disregard for international law and the president’s growing reliance on force. Europe faces tough choices to defend its interests

Russian invasion of Ukraine

Only Europe can save Ukraine from Putin and Trump—but will it?

  • Timothy Garton Ash
  • Commentary
  • View from the Council
  • 4 minute read

Whether using frozen Russian assets, ramping up defence production or deepening the relationship with the EU, it is up to us to secure Ukraine’s future—and our own

In the Media - Council

Carl Bildt
Sydsvenskan 6 January 2026

Carl Bildt on the potential for a military intervention by Trump against Greenland

Carl Bildt
Dagens Nyheter 6 January 2026

Carl Bildt on the Trump’s obsession with the Western Hemisphere and his  willingness to assert power over Greenland

Carl Bildt
Dagens industri 6 January 2026

Carl Bildt on the seriousness of the US’s threat against Greenland and the necessity for Europe to arm itself

Carl Bildt
Expressen 6 January 2026

Carl Bildt warns of the potential for a brute-force conflict with the US over Greenland

Featured and flagship projects

The Data Collection

Explore our open-access data platform for unparalleled access to ECFR’s public opinion polls—empowering research and insight on today’s key foreign policy issues.

Featured
Trump Shadow 2

Transatlantic twilight: European public opinion and the long shadow of Trump

  • Jana Puglierin, Arturo Varvelli, Pawel Zerka

Re:Engage

This project helps the EU in refining its foreign policy, re-engaging neighbours post-Russia's invasion of Ukraine to bolster regional resilience and advance enlargement policies.

Featured
EU Flags hanging from the queue barriers during the Open Doors Day

The interest of values: The EU’s democracy promotion in the Western Balkans and the eastern neighbourhood

  • Piotr Buras, Marie Dumoulin, Tefta Kelmendi, Marlene Marx

Re:Order

Re:Order project explores emerging visions of the global order, as well as the interplay between economic might and geopolitical influence.

Featured

Re:Order: The world after the West | podcast series

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Latest

China Trade

EU-Mercosur deal: Take the win, but change the tune 

  • Janka Oertel
  • Commentary
  • 3 minute read

With the EU-Mercosur deal signed after 25 years of negotiations, free trade advocates in Europe may feel triumphant. But their narrative is no longer convincing. As China undercuts industry worldwide, it’s time to refresh the open market story

Assault Teams Training In Lugansk People'S Republic

Putin’s longest war: Calling time on Russia’s endurance myth

  • Jana Kobzova, Leo Litra
  • Commentary
  • 5 minute read

Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine has now lasted longer than the Soviet Union’s fight against Nazi Germany, with incomparably smaller gains. The West should stop buying into Moscow’s bluff that Russia is invincible; instead, it should use the Kremlin’s weaknesses and double down on its support for Ukraine to bring about real negotiations to end the war

565556456

From partners to rivals: What the Saudi-UAE rupture means for Europeans 

  • Cinzia Bianco
  • Commentary
  • 5 minute read

Saudi Arabia and the UAE are experiencing a fracture in their diplomatic relationship. Europeans need to understand the potential impact on their economic and political interests

Policy alert
Policy Alert (1)

Global aid after Trump’s exit: How Europe can lead reform and head off Russia and China

  • Nele Anders
  • Policy Alert
  • 2 minute read

President Donald Trump’s withdrawal of the US from international organisations presents an opportunity to Europe to lead on global aid reform

Policy alert
FRANCE POLITICS DIPLOMACY COALITION SUMMIT ELYSEE

Peace with teeth: What Britain and France’s troop commitment means for Ukraine

  • Leo Litra
  • Policy Alert
  • 2 minute read

Britain and France have committed to deploying their armies on the ground in Ukraine. This is one step towards providing the robust security guarantees the country needs to deter future Russian aggression

SOLD OUT

2026: The year we stop pretending it’s just a phase

  • Mark Leonard, Jeremy Shapiro, Anand Sundar
  • Commentary
  • 4 minute read

Ten key foreign policy trends for the year ahead

In the media

Our experts are available for media requests. Our work involves many issues relating to Europe and foreign policy, and our programmes focus on Africa, Asia, the Middle East & North Africa, and Wider Europe.

All our experts Newsroom
Basler Zeitung 16 January 2026

Mark Leonard, Timothy Garton Ash and Ivan Krastev on Trump making China great again

Berliner Zeitung 16 January 2026

Mark Leonard, Timothy Garton Ash and Ivan Krastev on Trump making China great again

Il Sole 24 ore 15 January 2026

Timothy Garton Ash, Ivan Krastev, and Mark Leonard on the poling result that, a year after Trump’s return, his nation-first approach is helping to make China great again, while making his allies and adversaries feel more distant

ADNKRONOS 15 January 2026

Timothy Garton Ash, Ivan Krastev, and Mark Leonard on the poling result that, a year after Trump’s return, his nation-first approach is helping to make China great again, while making his allies and adversaries feel more distant

Tages-Anzeiger 15 January 2026

Mark Leonard, Timothy Garton Ash and Ivan Krastev on Trump making China great again

NZZ 15 January 2026

Mark Leonard, Timothy Garton Ash and Ivan Krastev on Trump making China great again

More on Africa

Skyline of Luanda, Angola, Africa

Middle power dreaming: The geopolitics of Angola’s emergence

  • Alex Vines
  • Policy Brief

Angola is increasingly active in the world. Here is how Europeans can cooperate with this rising middle power


Caught in the Corridor: Angola, Europe and America

  • Alex Vines
  • Commentary
  • 4 minute read

When the army comes knocking: Benin’s failed coup and West African instability

  • Suzanne Tisserand
  • Policy Alert
  • 2 minute read

More on Asia

Taiwan National Day

The Taiwan test: Why Europe should help deter China

  • Estelle Huang
  • Policy Brief

China’s military capabilities are growing and its actions in Europe are becoming more disruptive. The EU should support Taiwan with dual-use technologies and defence cooperation to send a clear signal to Beijing


Clumsy ships, big risks: China’s evolving maritime playbook

  • Estelle Huang
  • Commentary
  • 5 minute read

Managing a rivalry: The latest Japan-China escalation and what Europe can do

  • Elli-Katharina Pohlkamp
  • Commentary
  • 5 minute read

More on European Power

EU Tech Stack Presentation

Get over your X: A European plan to escape American technology

  • Giorgos Verdi
  • Policy Brief

Foreign technology companies cannot be entrusted with meeting Europe’s growing digital needs. This includes American big tech firms. Here’s what Europeans should do


Seven things to know about the EU’s €90bn loan to Ukraine

  • Agathe Demarais
  • Commentary
  • 4 minute read

Why Trump’s National Security Strategy is a geoeconomic trap for Europe 

  • Célia Belin, Majda Ruge
  • Commentary
  • 5 minute read

More on European Security

Pro Russian leaders protest as Pro EU party secures majority in Moldova

Accelerate the accessions: Why faster is better in EU enlargement policy

  • Engjellushe Morina
  • Policy Brief

The Ukraine war has revived EU enlargement for Albania, Moldova, Montenegro and Ukraine, but they face obstacles. Accelerating membership for these frontrunners would unlock the process before rivals can take advantage


Decision time for Europe

  • Mark Leonard
  • Commentary
  • 3 minute read

The next ‘big bang’: How the EU can fast-track enlargement amid geopolitical tensions

  • Vladimir Shopov
  • Commentary
  • 3 minute read

More on Middle East and North Africa

Photo-illustration depicting Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas and Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu | By Portia Kentish for ECFR

Averting West Bank collapse: How to revive Palestinian politics

  • Hugh Lovatt, Tahani Mustafa
  • Policy Brief

Hollowed out by violent Israeli control and Mahmoud Abbas’s personal rule, the Palestinian Authority is losing its grip on the West Bank. European and Arab states must intervene to rebuild legitimate governance and keep Palestinian self-determination alive


Taming Trump’s Gaza plan: A European-Arab initiative for lasting peace

  • Beth Oppenheim
  • Commentary
  • 5 minute read

Trump’s AI thaw: How Europe and the Gulf can protect against American and Chinese tech pressure

  • Cinzia Bianco, Herman Quarles van Ufford
  • Commentary
  • 5 minute read

More on United States

BearInBaltics update

The bear in the Baltics: Reassessing the Russian threat in Estonia

  • Jennifer Kavanagh, Jeremy Shapiro
  • Policy Brief

While Estonia’s geography makes it vulnerable to a Russian invasion, it is also protected due to weakened Russian capabilities, stronger European defence cooperation and its own preparedness. NATO’s European members should be reassured but not complacent


Decision time for Europe

  • Mark Leonard
  • Commentary
  • 3 minute read

Venezuela, Trump’s “Donroe Doctrine” and three dilemmas facing Europe

  • Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, Chris Herrmann
  • Commentary
  • 2 minute read
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