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Highlights

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Iran nuclear monthly monitor July update available

Latest

Ein Foto zeigt einen Mann, der ein geöffnetes Dokument hochhält, mit zwei Männern an einem Tisch vor blauem Banner.

Anti-corruption sanctions: Preparing for the time after Trump

  • Sarah McCool, Jim O’Brien
Ein Foto zeigt ein graues Fahrzeug auf einem Montageband, ein Arbeiter überprüft Teile unter dem Wagen in einer Werkshalle.

Trust the numbers: Germans are open to a more hawkish China policy

  • Nele Anders, Nina Schmelzer

Featured

French foreign policy under Bardella Cover and chapter art Concept

If Marine Le Pen wins: A European guide to a far-right France

  • Célia Belin, Jeremy Cliffe, Camille Lons, Constance Victor
  • Policy Brief

A Le Pen-led France would mean major changes to European politics. Here’s how political leaders can begin to prepare

Ein Foto zeigt maskierte Kämpfer in militärischer Kleidung und grünen Stirnbändern, bewaffnet mit Gewehren, die in einer nassen Straße vor Wohngebäuden stehen.

Hamas has agreed to disarm. Israel should now agree to peace

  • Hugh Lovatt
  • Commentary
  • 6 minute read

Despite all odds, there is now a realistic path towards ending the war in Gaza. Its success now depends on Israel. Europe could help tip the balance

Ein Foto zeigt einen Soldaten in Tarnuniform, von hinten stehend vor einem Grenzschild und Stacheldrahtzaun am Übergang.

Managed disorder: The hard road to a modest peace with Russia after Ukraine

  • Jeremy Shapiro, with Samuel Charap, Bob Deen, Hiski Haukkala, Ivan Krastev, Hanna Notte, Jim O’Brien
  • Policy Brief

When the fighting in Ukraine stops, America and Europe will likely end up facing Russia in a low-grade rivalry for years to come. Here is how to prevent that disordered rivalry from sliding into another war

Ein Foto zeigt einen Mann in dunklem Anzug, der mit lächelnden Teilnehmenden für ein Selfie auf der Bühne posiert.

Two of a kind: How France and Italy can show the way for Europe’s Africa policy

  • Maddalena Procopio, Suzanne Tisserand
  • Commentary
  • 6 minute read

Rome and Paris have each overhauled their economic strategies towards Africa in the past few years, competing openly for influence on the continent. Here is how the EU can use that rivalry to sharpen Europe’s offer to Africa

Upcoming events

Recent events

17 Jun

Annual Council Meeting 2026

  • 17 June 2026 · ECFR Berlin
11 Jun

ECFR Scenario Game: Which MENA Region in 2030?

  • 11 June 2026 · ECFR Rome

Mark Leonard's World in 30 minutes

China native Generation

Latin America’s new imaginaries

  • Podcast
  • Mark Leonard's World in 30 minutes

Mark Leonard welcomes Adriana Abdenur and Jorge Castañeda to discuss how China is reshaping the political imagination of Latin America

Listen

ECFR on air

Ein Foto zeigt eine Gruppe von Delegierten an einem Tisch bei einer offiziellen Besprechung in einem Saal mit Fahnen, Blumen.

Lebanon: On the brink of war or peace?

  • Podcast
  • ECFR on air
  • WOMENP

Ellie Geranmayeh is joined by Alia Moubayed, Randa Slim and Maha Yahya to discuss what the trilateral framework deal signed by Israel, the US and Lebanon means for the Lebanese stability

Listen

Views from the Council

Hebron West Bank Settlers

The EU should ban all trade with Israeli settlements

  • Sigmar Gabriel, Arancha González Laya, Pascal Lamy, Enrico Letta, Cecilia Malmström
  • Commentary
  • View from the Council
  • 2 minute read

It is high time the EU follow its own trade policy and ban trade of all goods and services from Israel’s illegal settlements in the West Bank

Russia Daily Life

Unconventional deterrence: How Europe can ward off a Russian attack

  • Jean-Marie Guéhenno
  • Commentary
  • View from the Council
  • 4 minute read

A nuclear deterrent does not preclude major war. Putin has learnt this lesson—now Europe needs to do the same

In the Media - Council

Carl Bildt
Rzeczpospolita 3 August 2026

Carl Bildt on Putin’s strategy for Donbas

OKO.press 28 July 2026

Interview with Edwin Bendyk on the current state of Ukrainian affairs

Polsat News 3 July 2026

Edwin Bendyk comments the state of Polish-Ukrainian relations

Polityka 30 June 2026

Edwin Bendyk on the Ukraine Recovery Conference in Gdańsk

Featured and flagship projects

The Data Collection

Explore our open-access data platform for unparalleled access to ECFR’s public opinion polls—empowering research and insight on today’s key foreign policy issues.

Featured
Trump Shadow 2

Transatlantic twilight: European public opinion and the long shadow of Trump

  • Jana Puglierin, Arturo Varvelli, Paweł Zerka

Re:Engage

This project helps the EU in refining its foreign policy, re-engaging neighbours post-Russia's invasion of Ukraine to bolster regional resilience and advance enlargement policies.

Featured
EU Flags hanging from the queue barriers during the Open Doors Day

The interest of values: The EU’s democracy promotion in the Western Balkans and the eastern neighbourhood

  • Piotr Buras, Marie Dumoulin, Tefta Kelmendi, Marlene Marx

Re:Order

Re:Order project explores emerging visions of the global order, as well as the interplay between economic might and geopolitical influence.

Featured
Green transition world order

The electric endgame: Europe’s clean path out of vassalage

  • Alberto Rizzi

Subscribe to our newsletters

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Discover our newsletters

Latest

Ein Foto zeigt einen Mann, der ein geöffnetes Dokument hochhält, mit zwei Männern an einem Tisch vor blauem Banner.

Anti-corruption sanctions: Preparing for the time after Trump

  • Sarah McCool, Jim O’Brien
  • Commentary
  • 6 minute read

Anti-corruption sanctions—and even the prospect of them—under the next US administration will be crucial to chances of peace in many parts of the world. Here’s how Europeans can play their part

Ein Foto zeigt ein graues Fahrzeug auf einem Montageband, ein Arbeiter überprüft Teile unter dem Wagen in einer Werkshalle.

Trust the numbers: Germans are open to a more hawkish China policy

  • Nele Anders, Nina Schmelzer
  • Commentary
  • 1 minute read

ECFR polling suggests significant public support not only for tougher German policy on China but also for investment in renewables—tackling twin problems together

Policy alert
Ein Foto zeigt einen Mann am Strand, der barfuß wegläuft und einen Ball trägt, während Menschen aus dem Meer kommen.

Alone at the border: Ceuta and Europe’s solidarity failure

  • Carla Hobbs
  • Policy Alert
  • 2 minute read

By failing to show solidarity with a member state under pressure, the EU is encouraging Morocco and others to keep using migration as a tool of coercion

Policy alert
Ein Foto zeigt zwei Männer in Anzügen, einer am Rednerpult, im Hintergrund ein Mann mit Blumen vor einer rot-weißen Flagge.

How splits on the right may threaten Poland’s pro-European camp

  • Piotr Buras
  • Policy Alert
  • 2 minute read

More than 40 MPs have walked out of Law and Justice, Poland’s largest opposition party, and will court centre-right voters who put Donald Tusk in power in 2023. To win them back, Tusk should make the European argument he has spent years avoiding

Ein Foto zeigt zwei Männer in Anzügen, einer gestikuliert, während sie bei einer NATO-Tagung an einem Tisch sitzen.

NATO’s digital arsenal: How Europe can avoid a new dependence on America

  • Gustav Gressel
  • Commentary
  • 5 minute read

AI-powered command systems are becoming the backbone of modern warfare. NATO needs shared standards, but if those rest on American software, interoperability will come at the price of dependence

Ein Foto zeigt eine Menschenmenge mit erhobenen Gewehren und Schildern, die nachts auf einer Straße in Sanaa Lichter hochhalten.

The Saudi dilemma: How Yemen could shape the next phase of the Iran war

  • Cinzia Bianco
  • Commentary
  • 3 minute read

As the Houthis attack Saudi ships and infrastructure, Riyadh faces an increasingly difficult choice: absorb the blows to stay out of the Iran war or retaliate and risk a dangerous escalation

In the media

Our experts are available for media requests. Our work involves many issues relating to Europe and foreign policy, and our programmes focus on Africa, Asia, the Middle East & North Africa, and Wider Europe.

All our experts Newsroom
Alberto Rizzi
The South China Morning Post 9 August 2026

Alberto Rizzi on European solidarity from Ceuta to China trade disputes

Gabrielė Valodskaitė
The New Union Post 6 August 2026

Gabrielė Valodskaitė on a team Enlargement coalition for EU accession

Jonas Horner
The Economist 6 August 2026

Jonas Horner on Sudan’s power struggle and the devastation of Khartoum

Muhammad Shehada
DW 6 August 2026

Muhammad Shehada on Hamas’s disarmament and prospects for a Gaza peace deal

Tobias Gehrke
South China Morning Post 5 August 2026

Tobias Gehrke on Germany’s search for supply chain leverage over China

Arturo Varvelli
Il Riformista 5 August 2026

Arturo Varvelli on the possible consequences of the Ceuta crisis for Italy and Europe

More on Africa

Hafen Rotterdam

The ammonia age: How Europe and Africa can steer global shipping to net zero

  • Sarah Logan
  • Policy Brief

The IMO’s Net-Zero Framework is critical for EU competitiveness and the clearest path to decarbonise shipping. African backing may prove decisive as American and Gulf pressure stalls progress


Shoring up the Red Sea: Why the next crisis may begin in the Horn of Africa

  • Corrado Čok
  • Commentary
  • 6 minute read

After Ukraine: The peace dividend Africa does not want

  • Will Brown, Lena Krause
  • Commentary
  • 3 minute read

More on Asia

China EU swarm paper

The art of the swarm: Systemic rivalry with China on European terms

  • Andrew Small
  • Policy Brief

The EU can exploit its system to say no to China—now, and long into the future


Trump in Beijing: Why the game stays the same for Europe

  • Andrew Small
  • Commentary
  • 3 minute read

Power couple: How South Korea fits in Europe’s battery strategy

  • Alexander Lipke, Jihye Yoo
  • Commentary
  • 5 minute read

More on European Power

China EU LabPetriDish

The future is fermented: How Europe can succeed in the next industrial race

  • Janka Oertel, with Nina Schmelzer
  • Policy Brief

The next industrial revolution will be built with microbes as much as machines. China understands this. Europe still has the science to compete but must act quickly before industrial leadership slips away again


One foot out: Understanding Bulgaria’s geopolitical shift under Radev

  • Maria Simeonova, Vessela Tcherneva
  • Policy Alert
  • 2 minute read

How better climate diplomacy can save Europe’s green ambitions

  • Mats Engström
  • Policy Alert
  • 2 minute read

More on European Security

Ein Foto zeigt zwei Personen nebeneinander auf einem roten Teppich vor einem Gebäude, flankiert von Soldaten und Flaggen.

The magnificent ten: A coalition of the willing to drive the EU’s next enlargement

  • Engjellushe Morina, Gabrielė Valodskaitė
  • Policy Brief

A Team Enlargement coalition of EU member states can drive the changes needed to bring Ukraine and others into the bloc


The fallout of the fallout: Zelensky’s reshuffle and protests in Ukraine

  • Jana Kobzová
  • Policy Alert
  • 2 minute read

Behind the curve: Britain’s defence investment plan in Trump’s world

  • Nick Witney
  • Commentary
  • 4 minute read

More on Middle East and North Africa

Iran nuclear monitor Month by month thumbnail image

Iran nuclear monitor: Month by month

  • Ellie Geranmayeh
  • Special

America and Israel have bombed Iran since 2025 to block Tehran’s path to nuclear weapons. ECFR’s interactive dashboard, updated monthly, assesses current evidence about Iran’s nuclear activities to determine which of six possible scenarios is most likely


Down and out from Rabat to Cairo: The Iran war and North African instability

  • Tarek Megerisi
  • Commentary
  • 5 minute read

Europeans don’t need consensus to challenge Israel and its settlements

  • Hugh Lovatt
  • Commentary
  • 5 minute read

More on United States

10

Sliding doors: One Trump crisis, two possible futures for Europe

  • Nevada Joan Lee
  • Policy Brief

The next Trump crisis will come. European governments facing American pressure will need to weigh the costs and benefits of their responses. Here are two scenarios to show what resistance costs, and why those costs are lower than they appear


America’s “direct return” doctrine—and what it means for the world

  • Jim O’Brien
  • Commentary
  • 7 minute read

As the US midterms loom, the Republican choice is surrender—or lose

  • Chris Herrmann, Nevada Joan Lee
  • Policy Alert
  • 2 minute read
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