As the dust settled after Slovakia's rejection of the euro bailout, politicians all over Europe were trying to figure out how a tiny party with just 22 MPs and only 300 members had managed to put such a spanner in the works – a feat that had eluded far bigger eurosceptic parties in the other 16 eurozone countries.
The soon-to-be-ex-prime minister, Iveta Radicova, was in no doubt that it was the fringe Freedom and Solidarity (SaS) party, a member of her own ruling coalition, that had sabotaged the bill and caused the government to collapse. In an ill-tempered press conference following Tuesday night's vote, she railed at the "irresponsible" and "populist" politics of the SaS, which she said had failed to realise that "we are a small and export-oriented economy, and we need partners around us".
Though the Slovakian parliament is widely expected to approve the revamped bailout by the end of the week after the opposition Smer party agreed to back what is left of the shattered government, the knock-back bodes badly for future pleas to shore up struggling governments and banks.
The big question analysts are now asking is whether Slovakia's disobedience will become contagious, emboldening other eurozone parliaments to follow its lead and say no next time the bailout mechanism – the European financial stability facility – needs another cash injection.
Raoul Ruparel, an economist at Open Europe, a thinktank campaigning for reform of the EU, said: "Even if Slovakia's no vote becomes a yes vote by the end of the week, I do think it will encourage those countries that have already expressed their reservations about the lack of control over the guarantees they have offered – the Netherlands, Finland, Germany and Austria in particular – to be more vocal in the future."
The Slovakian rejection made demands for more guarantees beyond the €440bn (£385.5bn) already committed to the bailout fund "very unlikely" in the near future, he added, "not least because Slovakia has already undertaken painful fiscal and banking sector reforms, while other eurozone countries continue to refuse to do so – making further guarantees politically impossible."
But Jana Kobzova, an analyst at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said she thought the no vote would make eurosceptic politicians in other countries less willing to rock the boat in future ballots. "The SaS are the losers in this. The vote will go through without them later, but they will lose their place in government," she said. "Politicians in other countries may be more wary of following their lead lest they too lose their jobs."
All 22 SaS MPs walked out of the national council parliament chamber in Bratislava before Tuesday's vote, even after Radicova risked her position by connecting the bailout fund to a confidence vote in her government. With the opposition Smer party opposing or abstaining from the vote for political rather than ideological reasons – they wanted to see the government collapse – Radicova garnered support from just 55 of Slovakia's 150 MPs.
If SaS party members regretted their boycott, they didn't show it afterwards. Their leader, Richard Sulík, the stubborn free-marketeer who also serves as the speaker of Slovakia's parliament, came out fighting. "We have a clear conscience," he said, reiterating his belief that Slovakia was being asked to contribute more than its fair share in order to bail out much richer countries.
SaS's bugbear is that Slovakia was made to enact harsh reforms in order to join the common currency, while Greece has been rewarded for its fiscal mismanagement. Martin Poliacik, a 31-year-old SaS MP, said: "It's like going to a nightclub and the doorman says you're not coming in wearing those shoes or without a suit on, and when you get in the club you see that other people are wearing jeans and trainers."
Robert Fico, the leader of Smer, said on Wednesday afternoon that in exchange for his party's votes, three of the four coalition party leaders have agreed to hold an early general election on 10 March.
"Slovakia will ratify the EU bailout fund without any problems. I believe it will happen on Friday this week at the latest," Fico said.
His announcement came hours after EU president Herman van Rompuy and European commission president José Manuel Barroso called on Slovakian political parties "to rise above the positioning of short-term politics, and seize the next occasion to ensure a swift adoption of the new agreement."