Egypt crisis: rival protests over referendum - Tuesday 11 December 2012

Here's a summary of today's events:

Egypt

Hundreds of protesters have breached the barricades outside the presidential palace in Cairo, as the constitutional crisis continues to deepen. Large anti-government protests are expected to increase in an attempt to persuade President Mohamed Morsi to postpone Saturday's referendum on a new constitution. Supporters of Morsi have also gathered in Cairo to back the president and the referendum.

 Egyptian security officials say masked gunmen attacked opposition protesters camped out at Cairo's Tahrir Square overnight. The attack is likely to stoke tensions hours before the rival rallies.

The International Monetary Fund has agreed to delay a $4.8bn loan deal to Egypt by a month after the government scrapped widespread tax increases it imposed hours before as part of the deal. Finance minister Mumtaz al-Said said: "Of course the delay will have some economic impact but we are discussing necessary measures (to address that) during the coming period."

Divisions are emerging in Egypt’s new opposition coalition, the National Salvation Front, on whether to boycott the referendum or campaign for a no vote. A final decision on the opposition's approach is due on Wednesday - just three days before the vote is due, but a no campaign has been launched. 

 Morsi's supporters captured, detained and beat dozens of his political opponents last week and pressured them to confess that they had accepted money to use violence against him, the New York Times reports. It says the abuses are hurting the credibility of Morsi and his allies in the runup to the referendum. 

 Human rights groups have condemned Morsi for reintroducing martial law. Amnesty International said the measure sets a dangerous precedent, given the way the army cracked down on protest while it was in power. Human Rights Watch said Morsi should be ending not expanding military trials.

Syria

The US is expected to announce formal recognition for the newly-formed National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Force, at a Friends of Syria conference on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the Kurdish National Council [KNC] has agreed to join the opposition coalition after securing guarantees about its representation in the bloc.

The US has toned down its rhetoric on Syria's chemical weapons. The US defence secretary, Leon Panetta, said: "At this point the intelligence has really kind of levelled off. We haven't seen anything new indicating any aggressive steps to move forward in that way."

The number of Syrian refugees has increased to more than half a million people, according to the the UN's refugee agency. The number of Syrians registered as refugee, or in the process of being registered, now stands at 509,559, it said.

 Britain's military chiefs have drawn up contingency plans to provide Syrian rebels with maritime, and possibly air, power in response to a request from David Cameron. However, they said the UK would act only if the US did so and made it clear that British chiefs of staff are seriously worried about the consequences of intervening in the Syrian crisis.

David Cameron's urge "to do something" in Syria is resisted by his defence staff, writes Nick Hopkins.

The fact that General Sir David Richards, chief of defence staff, has been drawing up contingency plans to provide Syrian rebels with maritime and possible air support should not be seen as an appetite within the Ministry of Defence to get involved.

The military might well do; it might have to. But it doesn't want to, at all, and for months military sources in Whitehall have been expressing deep unease about the situation to anyone who will listen.

Their concern is that David Cameron isn't one of them. Buoyed by the success of the very limited campaign in Libya, and horrified by the plight of refugees he met on the Syrian-Jordan border last month, the prime minister has got a slight case of what some in Whitehall call "foreign fever". Cameron wants "to do something", they say, though he is not exactly sure what that something should be ...

Nothing has changed the military's reluctance to get involved in the Syrian crisis. Officers insist there must be clear and united political will over what to do before troops are committed – and they want a robust and well thought-out exit strategy. Neither exists at the moment. The only scenario that would prompt the military into immediate action is the use of chemical weapons by Assad, or the prospect that some of them might end up in the wrong hands if his regime can longer protect them. At that point the UK would undoubtedly contribute to special forces operations to secure those weapons, following a US lead.

Until then Richards will have to continue his slightly awkward tap dance in front of the prime minister. Offering some ideas, without committing to any of them, and cautioning that involving even a small number of British troops to a fourth campaign in a decade, at a time of restructuring and redundancy of the armed forces, in a region where the UK is not regarded as an honest broker, might be more trouble than it is worth.

Hundreds of protesters have breached the barricade outside the presidential palace in Cairo, according to reports. 

Morsi's reaction to protests has been driven by panic, according to Issandr el-Amrani, founder of the Arabist blog.

Speaking to a European Council for Foreign Relations seminar in London, Amrani said Morsi's attempt to ram through the constitution showed his confidence in winning the vote, but also his "insecurity".

It is very unlikely that the referendum will be postponed, but large parts of the state are rebelling against it, he added.

Amrani said:

The polarisation that has been created in the last two weeks, will be lasting and will be major factor in Egyptian politics for months, if not years to come. Especially when both sides are appealing to the military ... to back its position.

Amrani added that Morsi regarded the opposition as undemocratic and elitist. He has turned instead to forming alliances with hardline Salafists.

While the opposition National Salvation Front decides on whether to boycott the referendum, a no campaign has been launched, writes the prominent blogger Zeinobia on Egypt Chronicles.

Despite that political forces and powers are trying to force Morsi to delay the referendum or even to cancel it , the youth of different political powers are working on the ground all over Egypt. From April 6 Youth to Constitution Party to Strong Egypt Party the youth are doing their best with their simple sources to educate the people on why they have to say “NO” for the constitution.

The US has toned down its rhetoric on Syria's chemical weapons.

Last week, US officials said there was evidence that Syrian forces had begun preparing sarin for possible use in bombs, AP reports.

It quotes US defence secretary Leon Panetta as saying: "At this point the intelligence has really kind of levelled off. We haven't seen anything new indicating any aggressive steps to move forward in that way."

Asked whether he believed President Bashar al-Assad was heeding western warnings against using chemical weapons, Panetta said: "I like to believe he's got the message. We've made it pretty clear. Others have as well."

He noted that the Assad regime is coming under increasing pressure from rebel forces.

"Our concern is that if they feel like the regime is threatened with collapse, they might resort to these kinds of weapons," he said.

Aaron Stein, non-proliferation programme manager at the Istanbul thinktank the Centre for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies, points out that evidence that Assad is preparing to use weapons is sketchy.

Writing on his blog, he says:

Satellite photography could show the movement of shells and containers at Syrian chemical munitions bases, but the evidence of mixing or filling shells is harder to obtain. It is also entirely possible that the source of the report was a coordinated leak designed to reinforce American/NATO red lines. In either case, satellite photos or airborne detection do not indicate intent. It is still premature to conclude that Assad is on the precipice of using his chemical weapons.

Egypt's republican guards have been fortifying the 10ft concrete walls they built over the weekend around the presidential palace, but the barriers continue to be a focus for protest.

Ahram Online reports:

Roads leading to the palace will be blocked with barbed wire and controlled by Central Security Forces and Republican Guards ahead of anti-Morsi marches scheduled to converge on the palace at 5pm on Tuesday. Pro-Morsi supporters will be demonstrating in front of the al-Rashdan and Raba'a El-Adaweya mosques near the palace at the same time.

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The International Monetary Fund has agreed to delay a $4.8bn loan deal to Egypt by a month after the government scrapped widespread taxes it imposed hours before as part of the deal.

The IMF had been expected to approve the deal, which is predicated on a sharp cut in Egypt's deficit, this month.

But finance minister Mumtaz al-Said confirmed the delay to Reuters. He said: "Of course the delay will have some economic impact but we are discussing necessary measures (to address that) during the coming period. I am optimistic ... everything will be well, God willing."

He said the delay would give time to explain an economic reform package after media criticism prompted the government to postpone measures that were part of the programme.

Egypt's prime minister,Hisham Kandil, is reported to have confirmed the delay.

Egypt’s new opposition coalition, the National Salvation Front, appears split on whether to boycott Saturday’s referendum or campaign for a no vote, says Abdel-Rahman Hussein in Cairo.

A final decision on the opposition's approach is due on Wednesday - just three days before the vote is due.

Abdu said:

They are split. I think they are more inclined to campaign for a no vote - although there is very little time. The speculation is that the main figures [in the coalition] Mohamed ElBaradei and Amr Moussa are more inclined to mobilise for a no vote. But they would much rather it be postponed. Those inclined towards a boycott are the movements that are more pro-street and leftist.

He said the opposition would much rather the vote was postponed.

They feel that in current climate, with all the violence that occurred and the deep division and polarisation, to have the referendum now is not the way to go. That’s the point of today’s protest - to pressure Morsi to postpone the referendum ... but I don’t expect this referendum to be postponed. Morsi is very headstrong about this.

Pro- and anti-Morsi protests today are due to start at 4pm local time (2pm GMT) in a similar area of Cairo.

The area near the ministry of defence is heavily policed and Morsi’s opponents have agreed to shift the start of the march further down the road to avoid the prospect of clashes, Abdu explained. The anti-Morsi protesters will then be heading towards the presidential palace.

There should be no confrontation. I’m hoping that restraint is the name of day and there are no orders from [the Muslim Brotherhood’s] Freedom and Justice Party to march anywhere in the direction of opposition protesters, with tragic results like last Wednesday.

It looks as if most of the judges will agree to oversee the referendum after concerns about their security have been met, Abdu said. Morsi’s widely-criticised decision to grant the army the power of arrest and detention ahead of the vote may have been made to satisfy the judges' security concerns, he said.

Abdu added:

Everything that has happened since the Morsi decree can only be described, as in the favoured British parlance, as an 'omnishambles'. You have midnight decrees, and 2am suspensions of tax hikes that were only released hours before. The whole thing has made a mockery of the democratic process. On paper Morsi has powers that only a despot can dream of. He has used and abused these powers in an erratic and unilateral manner which has bought us to this mess. What we are seeing now is a result of one of the most botched transition periods imaginable: a roadmap that was set by the military junta and aided and abetted by the Muslim Brotherhood, which left us open to all these legal wranglings and mess after mess.

A Kurdish opposition group, the Kurdish National Council [KNC] has agreed to join the new Syrian opposition coalition after securing guarantees about its representation in the bloc.

An update from Ausama Monajed, a spokesman for the National Coalition of Syrian Revolution and Opposition Forces, said the KNC's leader Faisal Yusuf had accepted an offer to join the bloc.

The coalition has agreed that 15% of the organisation can be Kurds. It also agreed to appoint a Kurd as another deputy leader. The group already has two deputy leaders Riad Seif, who proposed the new initiative, and Suhair Atassi, a female activist.

The US is due to recognise the coalition as the sole representatives of the Syrian people at the Friends of Syria conference in Morocco on Wednesday.

Egyptian security officials say masked gunmen have attacked opposition protesters camped out at Cairo's Tahrir Square.

AP says nine people were injured.

The officials say it's unclear who was behind the pre-dawn attack Tuesday. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they are not authorized to talk to the media.

The attack is likely to stoke tensions hours before rival mass rallies by opponents and supporters of President Mohammed Morsi over the country's new constitution.

Ahram Online said 16 were injured.

According to physician Hassanein Abu El-Hasan, who works in a makeshift clinic in the square, the injuries included pellet bullet wounds in the arms and feet. One protester was also hit in the head.

Late last night, Sasa Petricic, a journalist with CBC, said he saw anti-Morsi protesters throw petrol bombs at a group approaching the sit-in.

More than half a million Syrian refugees are now registered or awaiting registration in the region, the UN's refugee agency has announced.

In a statement it said: "According to UNHCR's latest figures for Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, Turkey and North Africa, 509,559 Syrians are either already registered (425,160) or in the process of being registered."

The number of registered Syrian refugees region-wide rose by about 3,200 per day in November, and close to 1,000 Syrians crossed in to Jordan during the past two nights alone, it said.

Lebanon is now host to 154,387 registered Syrian refugees who have fled the 20-month-old conflict, Jordan has 142,664, Turkey 136,319, Iraq 65,449 and North Africa 11,740, the statement added.

In addition, large numbers of Syrians have crossed into neighbouring countries but have not yet come forward to register for refugee status and assistance, it said. They include about 100,000 in Jordan, 70,000 each in both Turkey and Egypt and tens of thousands in Lebanon, it said, citing government estimates.

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The official overseeing Saturday's referendum on the new constitution has threatened to resign for a second time.

Zaghloul El-Balshi said he would step down if more violence erupts before or during the polling, Ahram Online reports.

Following last week's violence between anti-government protesters and Morsi's supporters outside the presidential palace el-Bashi suggested he had resigned hours after being appointed.

“I will not participate in a referendum that spilled Egyptian blood,” he said in a TV interview.

Mohamed ElBaradei, one of the leaders of the new opposition coalition the National Front, said voting on a "sham constitution" was illegitimate.

But in an interview with BBC's Newsnight programme he said the opposition had still not decided whether to boycott the referendum or try to mobilise a "no" vote.

He said more time was needed to reach a consensus on a new constitution. In some ways the new constitution is worse than the one under Mubarak, ElBaradei said. 

ElBaradei was challenged by CNN's Christiane Amanpour over why he refused to take part in dialogue with Morsi after urging the president to call for talks.

ElBaradei said Morsi's call for dialogue was not genuine or based on a level playing field.

Michael Collins Dunn, editor of the Middle East Journal, urges the opposition to negotiate with Morsi and take part in Saturday's vote.

It's true Morsi showed no signs of being willing to yield on the critical question of the referendum, but the refusal to sit down with him sounds as if the liberals are in fact doing what Morsi accuses them of doing: refusing to accept that Morsi won the election, if only narrowly. The fact that the liberal opposition are planning to boycott the referendum also strikes me as self-defeating: the referendum was likely to pass anyway, but this will guarantee fewer "no" votes. What does that achieve? I feel Morsi has been far too imperious in his attempt to ram the Constitution through, but by refusing to negotiate the liberals may be handing him an inevitable victory.

Welcome to Middle East Live.

Here's a roundup of the latest developments and analysis:

Egypt

Opponents and supporters of President Mohamed Morsi plan to hold rival demonstrations in Cairo ahead of Saturday's referendum on a new constitution which the president refuses to delay. Leftists, liberals and other opposition groups have called for marches to the presidential palace in the afternoon to protest against the hastily-drafted constitution. Islamists, who dominated the body that drew up the constitution, have urged their followers to turn out "in millions" in a show of support for the president and for the referendum.

  Morsi has given Egypt's armed forces the power of arrest and detention until the result of Saturday's referendum on a draft constitution is announced. Opposition forces are still considering whether to boycott the referendum or mobilise for a "no" vote if it is not postponed. 

 Morsi's supporters captured, detained and beat dozens of his political opponents last week and pressured them to confess that they had accepted money to use violence against him, the New York Times reports. It says the abuses are hurting the credibility of Morsi and his allies in the runup to the referendum. 

Human rights groups have condemned Morsi for reintroducing martial law. Amnesty International said the measure sets a dangerous precedent, given the way the army cracked down on protest while it was in power. Human Rights Watch said Morsi should be ending not expanding military trials.

 Morsi has temporarily suspended tax rises announced on Sunday on more than 50 goods, including fuel, electricity, steel, cigarettes and alcohol. The increases came as part of economic reforms being introduced ahead of the 19 December deadline for International Monetary Fund approval of a $4.8bn loan.

Throughout this crisis Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood have antagonised most sections of Egypt's society, argues Ellis Goldberg, Middle East specialist at University of Washington. Writing in Foreign Policy he says:

The simple and sad reality for the Brotherhood is that a great many Egyptians distrust, dislike, or fear them and worry that, having come to control the legislature and central executive, they plan to take over the courts as well as staff many of the lower levels of the government. President Morsi has been unable to allay this distrust, fear, and dislike and over the last week he and his allies have, through words and actions, intensified it.

Syria

Britain's military chiefs have drawn up contingency plans to provide Syrian rebels with maritime, and possibly air, power in response to a request from David Cameron, senior defence sources said on Monday night. However, they said the UK would act only if the US did so and made it clear that British chiefs of staffs are seriously worried about the consequences of intervening in the Syrian crisis.

Rebels say they expect greater military help from Gulf Arab states after they announced a new command structure and as fighting continued in southern Damascus near the international airport. Speaking to Reuters, Abu Moaz al-Agha, a leader and spokesman of the powerful Gathering of Ansar al Islam, said: "What we need now is the heavy weapons and we expect to get them after the formation of this [new military command]. The anti-armour and anti-aircraft weapons are what we are expecting," he told Reuters by Skype from Turkey before heading to the Gulf.

Syria has dismissed as "psychological warfare" speculation that the Assad regime is about to fall. Deputy foreign minister Faisal Miqdad also told the BBC that the regime was strong and would survive. But the BBC's Jeremy Bowen witnessed organised and strengthened rebel forces in the north-west Damascus suburb of Douma. Reporting from the "nerve racking" area, Bowen said:

It is very difficult to see how the Assad regime can roll back people who are this determined and have taken so much ground and are holding it right in the capital city.

US secretary of state Hillary Clinton has pulled out of Wednesday's Friends of Syria meeting in Morocco due to a stomach illness. She was expected to announce formal US recognition for the newly formed National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces during the meeting. Deputy secretary of state Bill Burns will attend the event in Clinton's place.