What would a Merkel fourth term mean for the world? Impact on the UK, Brexit, EU and more

What would a Merkel fourth term mean for Germany?

Ms Merkel will run in the 2017 German election despite a collapse in popularity over her open-door migration policy.

A new poll has shown that 55 per cent of Germans support her decision to seek another term in office in the hopes that it will bring stability to the divided nation, which has been rocked by far-right protests and Islamist terror attacks.

"A fourth Merkel term will signal continuity above everything else,” Josep Janning, senior policy fellow and head of the European Council on Foreign Relations' Berlin office told CNN.

The Chancellor, who has served as leader since 2005, will face stiff competition from the anti-establishment Alternative for Germany (AfD).

What would a Merkel fourth term mean for the EU?

The future of the EU, already hanging in the balance after the historic Brexit vote, will be shaped by upcoming votes in Italy and France.

If the two nations vote to continue with the current establishment forces, the Chancellor could find herself in a powerful position to shape a post-Brexit EU.

In France, the far-right National Front leader Marine Le Pen is set to top the first round of voting in next May’s general election, according to the latest polls.

Ms Le Pen has promised to hold a referendum on withdrawing France from the EU, and has warned: "I think that the days of the ideology supported by Ms Merkel are numbered.”

Meanwhile a referendum on constitutional reform in Italy is being seen by many as a judgement on pro-EU Prime Minister Matteo Renzi. 

Mr Renzi has vowed to step down if his reforms do not pass in December, which could make way for the Eurosceptic Five Star Movement to take power.

Should Italy and France reject the EU, Ms Merkel – often referred to as the most powerful woman in the world – might find her influence weakened within the bloc.

What would a Merkel fourth term mean for the UK and Brexit?

Ms Merkel has suggested that she would be willing to allow the UK access to the single market while restricting freedom of movement.

While she has insisted that the EU must not divide its four freedoms – movement of goods, capital, people and services – she has said that discussion could be had on the definition of free movement.

“I personally am of the view that we will have to discuss further with the European Commission when this freedom of movement applies from,” she has said.

The Chancellor explained that if for example, someone came to Germany from eastern Europe and worked only for a short time but acquired a life-long claim on welfare benefits, “then I see a question about which we must talk again”.

What would a Merkel fourth term mean for the US and Trump?

Hours after Donald Trump’s win in the US presidential election, Ms Merkel issued a strongly-worded statement that many took as a warning towards the President-elect.

She called his election campaign “difficult to stomach” and said that she had “watched the election results with trepidation”.

“Germany and America are connected by values of democracy, freedom and respect for the law and the dignity of man, independent of origin, skin colour, religion, gender, sexual orientation or political views,” she continued.

“I offer the next President of the United States close cooperation on the basis of these values.”

Frauke Petry, leader of the far-right AfD, offered a much more congratulatory message.

She tweeted: "Americans have chosen a new beginning free of corruption and sleaze. This is a historic chance."

The AfD, which is on course to become Germany’s third-largest party, shares similar views with Mr Trump on Islam and immigration and could prove a better match with the Republican than Ms Merkel.