‘’When people hear the word ‘drones’, they think of targeted killings in the United States’’, writes Ulrike Franke*, from Oxford University in her paper A European approach to military drones and artificial intelligence. But drones are diverse and are not being used solely to kill terrorists. According to Franke, Europe should develop a common strategy on small drones, that could be optionally armed, that would be of great interest for most European countries and also a great opportunity for a new export market.
What do you think are the most common misconceptions of the use of drones?
I think the main one is that when people think about drones, they think about the US covert drone war in Pakistan, Somalia and Yemen. This leads people to believe that most drones are big, armed, and their most common use is targeted killing.
Another misperception is that the US has a monopoly on drones. People think only the US has drones and that has never been true. Drones have been around for a while, modern drones developed around the year 2000, and already then about a dozen countries had drones. Today approximately 90 countries have drones. Israel, the US, and increasingly China are leading the technology.
Can you tell me a little more about how drones can be used in an intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance system context? I.E. how can we use unarmed drones in a ‘’revolutionary’’ way.
ISR (Intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance) is really the most important part of drone operation. Drones fly around and collect a lot of data, and even armed drones are for most of the time only collecting data. How drones are used depends on the kind of drone system we are thinking of. The smallest drone currently in use is so small it takes off from the palm of a hand, the biggest system has a wing span of a commercial airliner. Of course they are used in very different ways, Smaller systems are used by ground troops to look over a compound wall, if there is someone behind a corner or a checkpoint. The next bigger are tactical drones: they are being used a lot; they fly around with patrol to tell them if there is a roadblock or check point. Other bigger ones are used to accompany patrols throughout the whole day, make sure there are no explosive devices, and are regularly monitoring hotspots, like a Taliban hotspot, to see who comes and goes. They also monitor a home base, to make sure one does not come too close to it. The biggest type of drone, the Global Hawk can be in air for over 24-hours to monitor big areas and gather signal intelligence.
What could a European drone strategy look like?
The answer to this question is twofold: Investment and use of drones.
First, investment. All common European drone projects that are currently in development are high tech, autonomous combat drone system. The first one to be ready will not be until 2025 and quite likely much later. But it would make sense to now produce a robust, small surveillance system, optionally armed, with artificial intelligence elements that allow it to fly in swarms. Such a system could be used by European countries but also outside of Europe: All countries will want to use those, and this represents a great market opportunity for export. Some small drone systems currently on the market have shown flaws in recent years, which is why there is an opening to develop a European small, optionally armed drones system.
in terms of use, as drones are a military technology, the decision as to how to use them in military operations lies with the member state. I think it would be interesting however to discuss a common European drone doctrine on the use of drones, but it depends on the level of engagement of each members State. What would make sense would be more cooperation and exchange on how to use drones. The biggest current issue is targeted killings: the EU is currently thinking of a common EU policy on the use of drones for targeted killing. It is legally tricky and controversial. This is why developing a strategy on investment is much easier than on use.
What would be the challenges of implementing a European-wide drone strategy? And who are the current biggest European players?
The biggest challenge is not drone specific: in a multilateral project, the system needs to fit the needs of all member states. We should avoid too many special treatments. We should agree on a common system without too many exceptions. There will be also the political challenge of answering the questions: Where to build them, who invest how much and what contracts would look like. Some European countries are currently developing their own drone system, and having a common European project on drones would mean creating competition for your own drone system. It is tricky to combine them, but I still think it would be good overall for the export system it would create.
As for manufacturers, there are many smaller producers all around Europe. Germany for example uses five different drone systems, four of which are built by manufacturers few people know. I think it is similar in other countries. There is not really one European State that is stronger on drones, but larger manufacturers like Airbus, BAE,the consortium that is working on the nEUROn drone etc. do have important industrial and technological knowledge. As for bigger drone systems, for the moment, the US, Israel and China dominate the market. When we look at who gets them where, China and Israel are stepping up its game somewhat, and there is no European country in the game. It would be interesting to see a European stepping up. Several European countries are trying to acquire armed drones. Italy has been one of the European country that has tried to get armed drones for the longest. For now, the UK is the only European country to operate armed drones from US, and Italy is flying US unarmed Predator drones. Italy has been asking for a long time to arm those. I think it is going to happen relatively soon. I think Italy will be the next European country to get armed drones.
I saw that you have been working with the UN Special Rapporteur on human rights and counter-terrorism – How does the use of drones fit within Human Rights laws and the laws of ‘’just’’ war?
There is nothing inherently illegal about armed drones. The controversial aspect for international lawyers and Human Rights advocates is the use of armed drones for targeted killing outside of official battlefield. In war, the use drones or whatever technology to target the enemy is a strategy that has been used forever, and that is not legally that problematic. The problem is hunting down terrorist anywhere else in the world. In Pakistan, Yemen, or Somalia for example, places the US is not officially at war with: here comes the problem or the sovereignty of the country, not giving people a right to appeal to court of law. But this is not about drones itself, but how you use them. They are not more problematic than tanks or machine guns. You can use them in a legal, just war.
I am not an expert on that matter, but all I can say there are increasingly efforts to have a common European stance on these specific drones operation that we talked about – outside of official battlefield.
One interesting thing: drones are proliferating fast. Until recently, only few countries – the US, Israel, and the UK, - had armed drones. Today that number has gone up to about one dozen, most of which have acquired armed drones only recently. Many European countries are thinking about acquiring armed drones but have not gotten them yet, which is why now would be a good time to discuss a common strategy of use. In five a years’ time, I think that more countries in Europe will have armed drones. At least Germany, Italy, Spain, France, Poland and the Netherlands are thinking about it. Of course the question is who to buy them from. Do we buy them from the US? – so far they have only exported to the UK - their close allies, or do we buy them from Israel? Or even China, where would come from whole range of security questions.
*Ulrike Franke holds a Phd in international relations from Oxford University, is a fellow at the European Council on Foreign relations and was also part of UN Special Rapporteur on human rights and counter-terrorism Ben Emmerson’s research team, working on drone use in counterterrorism contexts.’’
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