[UPDATE: On July 24th, the White House issued a statement that it was indeed changing its interpretation of the MTCR as described below]
The Trump Administration plans to reinterpret a decades-old arms control agreement, an official speaking anonymously told Reuters. This would enable U.S. suppliers to export large drones like the MQ-9 Reaper. The move could give a huge boost to the American aerospace industry and open up a whole new market, but could also have serious unintended consequences.
Men look at a Chinese-made CAIG Wing Loong II medium altitude long endurance (MALE) unmanned aerial ... [+]
The Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) was formed in 1987. It is a multilateral agreement between 35 member states which seeks to limit the proliferation of missile technology. One of its aims it to prevent exports of systems able to carry an 1,100-pound payload more than 190 miles, to stop countries acquiring rockets or cruise missiles to deliver nuclear warheads or other weapon of mass destruction. Under the current interpretation it blocks exports of drones like the MQ-9 Reaper made by General Atomics with its 3,750 pounds payload and 1,150 mile range.
U.S. policymakers have been kicking around the idea of reinterpreting the MTCCR to permit drone exports since at least 2017, when the idea was discussed at a plenary meeting of MCTR members.
Some argue the current interpretation is an anachronism from the pre-drone age that makes a false equivalence.
“The U.S. has hamstrung itself due to restrictive export policies that equate large UAVs to nuclear missiles,” Dave Deputula wrote on Forbes recently. “This mismatch between the definitions and controls imposed on UAVs and the reality of how they are actually employed has significantly harmed coalition operations, U.S. relationships with its partners and allies, and the U.S. defense industrial base.”
Deptula argues that because some allies cannot purchase U.S. drones it harms their ability to co-ordinate. And export limits undoubtedly harm companies like General Atomics, which makes the Reaper and earlier Predator, and who are currently suffering after the USAF terminated Reaper production early and appear to be seeking a lower-cost replacement rather than looking at a direct follow-on.
The U.S., a leader in many other areas, currently sees many large armed drone sales go to other countries. China’s CH-4 Wing Loong which can carry a variety of guided missiles, is in service in Algeria, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iraq, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and others. Turkey’s newer TB2 Bayraktar has being exported to Ukraine and Qatar. Israel is arguably the market leader, estimated in a 2017 RUSI study to have 60% the market selling to at least 30 nations including the armed Heron drones flown by India.
According to officials quoted by Reuters, Jordan, Romania, Saudi Arabia, and UAE are already interested and will be lining up for a chance to buy. So why shouldn’t the U.S. go ahead and sell drones to these markets?
“The argument that the industry is putting forward and seems to have caught President Trump's ear – that other countries like China and Israel are already exporting these types of capability so it’s unfair that the US is unable to -- is simply wrong,” says Chris Cole, founder of website Drone Wars UK, which campaigns against armed drones. “For example, the drones that China are exporting– the Rainbow and Wing Long series – do not breach Category I of the MTCR [delivering a payload of 1100 pounds more than 190 miles]. Israel, although not a member of the MTCR, voluntarily abides by its provisions and so too does not export this capability.”
Cole suggests that exporting such armed drones would work against American interests.
“If the U.S. unilaterally breaches its MTCR commitments, it’s likely then that China and Israel would quickly follow suit by building and exporting drones with a larger weapons payload and this would have a significant negative impact on global peace and security,” says Cole.
Drones are already becoming a preferred means of intervening in foreign wars, notably in Libya with Qatari drones from Turkey fighting on one side and UAE Wing Loong drones carrying out strikes for the other. Cole says adding U.S. drones would throw more and deadlier weapons into an already volatile mix, allowing sponsor states able to intervene more effectively in more conflicts at low cost and no risk to their remote pilots. Some argue this drone free-for-all could be highly destabilizing.
The other question is just how effectively the U.S. would be able to compete in the market. Chinese drones may be less capable, but are claimed to cost roughly half as much as their American counterparts, and the Turkish Bayraktar being a similarly low-cost option. The Israelis are not so much in the budget market – India paid $40m for each of its Heron drones – but have a longstanding reputation for excellence. Meanwhile the U.K., permitted to buy by the MTCR, is paying a reported $1.4 billion for 16 American-made Protector drones.
An MQ-9 Reaper remotely piloted aircraft (RPA) (Photo by Isaac Brekken/Getty Images)
As the U.K. sale indicates, some allies may be interested in buying American even at a higher price.
“As is often the case with U.S. arms sales, that the U.S. will be able to offer package deals, and incentivize buyers that way,” says Ulrike Franke, a policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, specializing on the impact of new technologies such as drones. “Also, recently, there have been a growing number of reports about Chinese drones proving unreliable, which may help the U.S.”
As Franke sees it though, the problem with reinterpreting the MTCR after so many years is more fundamental.
“The signal that the U.S. administration is sending is that it cares less and less about international treaties and particularly arms control treaties,” says Franke. “This latest announcement to reinterpret MTCR is just one of several in this direction, as the Trump administration has also left the Iran nuclear deal, abandoned the NPT and ended Open Skies.”
Franke sees this as a problematic development, signaling that the U.S. is willing to shed an increasing number of treaties. It could make international arms control more difficult if not impossible, especially if Russia and China follow suit.
The plan is for the U.S. to commence enhanced drone sales as early as this summer. Whether it produced a drone economic bonanza, a rash of drone wars, or an erosion of international treaties – or all three – remains to be seen.
