Poland’s President Duda’s Election Win Threatens Renewed Battle With Europe

Poland’s incumbent populist President Andrzej Duda won another five years in power in an election that is likely to weaken an already strained relationship with the European Union.

Duda is backed by the deeply conservative Law and Justice party (PiS), which now has a clear mandate until the parliamentary election in three years, to pursue reforms in the judiciary and media — policies heavily criticized by the European Commission which says it undermines the rule of law in Poland.

The President, who ran on a campaign promoting traditional values with anti-LGBT and anti-Semitic rhetoric, won a narrow majority of 51.2% against his rival Rafal Trzaskowski in the vote on July 12.

Just before the election, Duda received the backing of U.S. President Donald Trump during a visit to Washington. That relationship could be unsettling for the EU if Trump wins the November presidential vote, as the EU tries to prove itself as a united force on the global stage.

“European countries are already finding transatlantic relations with Trump, which is problematic because the U.S. and EU are being uncooperative on multilateral issues,” said Pawel Zerka of the European Council on Foreign Relations think-tank.

“In the EU there is an attempt to increase its European strategic sovereignty and capacity to act independently from the U.S. who Europe can apparently no longer rely on as it used to in the past.

“But EU partners will not be able to rely on Poland in such an endeavor, because the Polish government will have stronger links to Washington under Trump than the EU,” Zerka said.

Poland put to the test

There is a more pressing decision for Poland as to how it positions itself.

Ongoing EU budget talks and discussions for a coronavirus recovery fund, which require unanimous approval from member states, will put Poland to the test.

The country could agree to compromise on its rule of law and climate change policies in return for generous funding from the EU. But in another scenario, it could turn down the additional EU money and have the freedom to implicate its policies.

Zerka said the latter is most likely, which would mean a weaker link and more confrontation with Brussels.

“The pro-Europeanism of Polish society would be put to test, the Law and Justice party will get a free way to use Europe for its internal political electoral purposes, which might be necessary, given that they might face a deteriorating economic situation,” he said.

The road for Europe

The challenge for the bloc will be if it can protect democracy and rights for minority groups in Europe and if it will develop new tools to protect those rights during budget negotiations.

But faced with the strains of the economic devastation caused by the coronavirus pandemic, the EU is mainly focused on resuing its southern neighbours Spain and Italy and attention could turn away from democracy in the east.

Hungary as well as Poland have come under fire from the EU for their records on the rule of law in recent years.

But Ursula von der Leyen’s Commission has yet to implement existing tools to keep Hungary and Poland in line.

European Commission chief von der Leyen has also given little sign, unlike her predecessors, that she will focus on the rule of law issue. 

It could cause the systemic effect of Western EU member states losing hope its eastern neighbors can be fully integrated into the bloc, which would be detrimental to countries such as Croatia and Bulgaria who are in a preliminary stage to adopt the euro currency.

“It would be unjust if the rest of Europe losing hope with east,” said Zerka.

“For many years there was a focus with the EU bringing those countries closer through structural funding, but because of Poland and Hungary that hope seems to be evaporating.”