Members of the Italian political right-wing party ''Fratelli d'Italia'', demonstrate, asking the ... [+]
The economic blow dealt by the coronavirus pandemic will be a gift to Europe’s Eurosceptic populist groups but they are yet to exploit the crisis to the full.
Unlike the U.S., which has seen widespread anti-lockdown protests at times infiltrated by far-right groups, Europe’s far-right or far-left have yet to have any such equivalent, albeit moderate populist party gatherings in Italy and Germany.
Though the lockdown has caused a nationalist fantasy of border closures and increased EU divisions—it will not be until the full economic devastation comes into force the extremist parties will have their moment.
For the now, the focus is on whether governments are doing a good enough job as Europe begins lifting lockdown measures.
‘Rally round the flag’ effect
If governments succeed in doing well during the pandemic it causes a “rally round the flag” effect.
In Germany, one opinion poll released last month showed Angela Merkel’s government has enjoyed an increase in support for its handling of the coronavirus crisis.
The poll also revealed the far-right AfD party has lost ground since the pandemic started. Its share fell from 13% in the opinion polls in January 2020 to 9% in April this year.
Spain and Italy have been hardest hit by coronavirus. (Photo by David Ramos/Getty Images)
Government support during the pandemic has also been seen in Spain.
The far-right Vox party has tried to blame Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s government for the scale of the coronavirus pandemic there.
But 87.8% of Spaniards said political parties should support the government during the crisis and leave the criticisms until later, according to an opinion poll form Spain’s CIS public research institute.
And in Italy, Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte’s popularity has risen by a record high of over 60% during the pandemic, according to polls.
‘Ammo’ for the extremists
But the real test, as Europe begins lifting lockdown measures, will be the handling of the economic crisis, which is likely to play into the hands of populist parties.
The eurozone is set for a record recession and inflation will almost vanish, the European Commission said on May 6.
Restaurants, bars and shops shuttered due to COVID-19, have caused millions to be lose their jobs or ... [+]
“Europe is experiencing an economic shock without precedent since the Great Depression,” European Commissioner for Economic and Financial Affairs Paolo Gentiloni said.
With millions losing their jobs or being put into furlough across Europe it is likely to fuel populist and Eurosceptic narratives.
This will especially be the case in Europe’s countries hardest hit by coronavirus.
In Italy and Spain, there is a strong feeling that the EU should have helped sooner and it did not show enough solidarity.
China first gave protective gear to Spain and Italy, not the EU. (Photo credit should read Pablo ... [+]
It will long be remembered that it was China who first sent them protective gear such as masks, not Brussels.
Also feeding into EU skepticism will be the debate over debt sharing, known as corona bonds or euro bonds, which Europe’s southern members were all for but the northern neighbors blocked over fear they would be burdened with heavy debt.
“The economic shock we must now expect is so severe that extremists on the left and right will have a great deal of ammunition,” said Dr. Majda Ruge, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations think-tank.
“There will no doubt be calls for greater protectionism,” she said, which would likely result in some hybrid of 'economic nationalism' and greater EU-scepticism.
